Russia imperils global food stability

Opinion editor's note: Editorials represent the opinions of the Star Tribune Editorial Board, which operates independently from the newsroom.

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On Monday, explosions damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge connecting Russia to Crimea.

Hours later, Russia blew up Ukraine's most direct connection to feeding the world by abrogating the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a pact that allowed agricultural exports to most efficiently and effectively reach millions of food-insecure people in the so-called Global South.

The Kremlin says the two events are not related, and that what it considers a one-sided deal was discarded due to sanctions restricting its agricultural industry. A more credible voice, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, states it more accurately: Russia's move is a "military act of aggression," he said.

An act targeted toward Ukraine, to be sure, but just as profoundly it may injure noncombatants in other countries who depend on a stable global food supply to stave off starvation.

Reaction was swift and strong globally and locally, including from U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., who said via Twitter that "Putin's barbaric war continues to have global repercussions. This will exacerbate food insecurity and harm the already vulnerable. Russia must reverse this outrageous decision." Fifth District Rep. Ilhan Omar added in a statement: "Russia's termination of the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine will lead to humanitarian catastrophe. By terminating this deal, Putin is effectively plunging millions around the world into famine and starvation."

"It's pretty straightforward," Ed Usset, a University of Minnesota extension professor in the Department of Applied Economics, told an editorial writer. "Ukraine ships a lot of their grains to less-developed, poorer countries. And [while] they still can ship grain, it's just on less economical routes when they have to go overland to Europe," ultimately making it "more expensive and more difficult to get grain to some needier spots."

And according to a new U.N. report, hunger in those needier spots has spiked in recent years. "The proportion of the world population facing chronic hunger in 2022 was about 9.2 percent, compared with 7.9 percent in 2019," the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization stated, later adding that 122 million more people faced hunger in 2022 than in 2019.

The prospect of increased need will impact many Minnesota agricultural entities, including firms like Cargill and CHS. Usset said that the U.S. has "comfortable" levels of commodities stocks, and along with a few other nations could fill some of the shortfall. But overall, he added, "Ukraine has some of the most productive soil types and grain-producing potential that exists in the world. And here, they are struggling to just move product to market. So it's a shame."

A shame, for sure — and a crisis. Ukrainian grain is essential to alleviate the suffering described in the U.N. report. But the misery most central to Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be what he's inflicting on Ukraine.

"I hope that every country is watching this very closely," Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters on Monday. "They will see that Russia is responsible for denying food to people who are desperately needy around the world."

Citing recent aggressive moves against the U.N. regarding Mali and Syria that proceeded Monday's cancellation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Gowan said it looks like "the Russians have decided that it's time to stop even limited cooperation through the U.N. with the West, and they are starting to blow up deals that they had previously allowed to keep alive."

Another factor could be Turkey's turn to the West at the recent NATO Summit, when it relented on Sweden's ascension to the alliance and reemphasized its bid to join the European Union. It may be Putin's way of saying that "Russia still has some leverage over Turkey," Gowan said, adding that the Kremlin is probably thinking more "about that immediate picture than the sort of broader campaign for hearts and minds in the Global South."

Hearts and minds won't be won on empty stomachs. Indeed, the nations affected should decry Russia's cruelty and add to the pressure on the Kremlin to not only relent on the Black Sea grain deal, but also its brutal invasion of a sovereign country.

Unfortunately, a negotiated end seems far off. "A lot of people looked at the [grain] deal and took some comfort from it; they saw that it was possible to forge a complex diplomatic agreement involving Moscow and Kyiv," Gowan said. But now, "the Russian's decision to terminate the deal — if it proves to be a strategic choice rather than a tactical gambit — just is a very clear reminder about how far away we are from a negotiated settlement."