Saturday Clipper - More 40s Next Week

A Saturday clipper drops a couple inches of snow on Duluth, but I don't see any big storm potential until (possibly) the second week of December. Weekend highs top freezing, with 4 days in the 40s next week as a Pacific breeze wafts moderate air well inland. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

November 26, 2021 at 3:30AM
Sunset Monday, November 22nd (@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth Across The Region

Here's a look at snow depth across the region from earlier in the week, which shows minimal snow cover across the northern third of the state. The greatest snow depth was reported in International Falls, where 3" was on the ground. Meanwhile, folks in the southern two-thirds of the state are snow free.

Snow Depth As of Wednesday, November 24th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth Across the Midwest

It's been a slow start to the snow season across the Midwest. Other than a little snow across the international border and the Great Lakes, there doesn't appear to be much snow on the ground around the region.

Snow Depth Across The Midwest on Thursday, November 25th, 2021 (NOAA NOHRSC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook Ahead

The simulated radar from AM Friday to AM Thursday, shows quiet weather on Friday, but a quick moving clipper could bring a few light rain/snow showers to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region over the weekend with minor snow accumulations for some. With that being said, there won't be any major storm systems impacting your travels back home over the weekend.

Weather Outlook From AM Friday to AM Thursday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Saturday Clipper Snowfall Potential

According to the GFS model, Saturday's clipper could drop a couple of inches of snow across parts of northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. At this point, it looks like the Twin Cities will largely get missed, but there could be some light rain/snow showers during the day.

Saturday Clipper Snowfall Potential (WeatherBell: GFS Snowfall Potential/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook continues to show very little precipitation potential across the state. The best chance will be across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, but amounts will be quite light.

Extended Precipitation Outlook Through Thursday (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update For Minnesota

According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 3% of the state is still considered to be in an extreme drought (in red across northern Minnesota), which is down from nearly 58% from 3 months ago. There has been a slight improvement in Severe Drought, which is at 27%, down from 88% 3 months ago. Nearly 52% of the state is still under a Moderate Drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities Metro.

MN Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st

Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st and note that most locations are still several inches below average. The Twin Cities The metro is still nearly -6.20" below average since January 1st, which is the 48th driest January 1st - November 24th on record.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Friday Weather Outlook

Friday will be another chilly day, but not as cold as it was on Thanksgiving Day Thursday. Highs will only warm into the mid 30s, which is actually pretty close to average for the end of November. South to southeasterly winds will be breezy at times, making it feel more like the 10s and 20s through the day.

Friday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Friday shows temps starting around 20F in the morning and warming into the mid 30s by the afternoon. There will also be a sun and cloud mix with breezy southeasterly winds, at times, gusting close to 20mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Friday

High temps across the region on Friday will be warmer than they were on Thanksgiving Day Thursday, especially to the west, where readings could warm to near 60F in Pierre, SD, which will be nearly +20F above average. Temps farther east will still be a bit below average with light snow chance across the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Friday Weather Outlook (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

After a very chilly Thursday, temperatures will gradually warm around the region over the next few days. High temps on Monday could once again reach the 40s, which will be nearly +10F above average once again. With only a few days left of November, it looks like we'll end the month on a warmer than average note.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

Looking ahead through the last few days of November and the first day of December (next Wednesday), it appears that our temps will be above average with minimal precipitation chances. Our best chance of a little light rain/snow mix will be on Saturday, but that will be about it. Note that highs by the second half of next week could near 50F !!

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, readings will be closer to average through the weekend. However, temps appear to warm back into the 40s as we head into most of next week.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows well above average temperatures across much of the nation as we head into the early part of December.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, dry weather will be in place across much of the Central US, including the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, folks in the western US will have a better chance of precipitation.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Saturday Clipper - More 40s Next Week
By Paul Douglas

My green lawns is mocking me but I'm going long on snow. There will be a white Christmas. The balloon will pop, our "mild bias" (cookie please) will give way a wintry, potentially snowy pattern by mid-December. It may come right down to the wire this year, but changes are coming.

I'm recovering from yesterday's drifts... of mashed potatoes. The only showers? Hot gravy. The only slippery spots? Dishes smeared with cranberry sauce. I'm thankful for Tums.

A Saturday clipper drops a couple inches of snow on Duluth, but I don't see any big storm potential until (possibly) the second week of December. Weekend highs top freezing, with 4 days in the 40s next week as a Pacific breeze wafts moderate air well inland.

Weather models agree on a much colder front after December 4; NOAA's GFS model brings a real snowstorm into Minnesota in 9 days, but that's so far out it's more of a horoscope than a weather outlook.

Lawns will remain lime-green with cobwebs on shovels, but winter may show its fangs within 2weeks.

Extended Forecast

FRIDAY: Clouds increase. Winds: S 10-15. High: 36.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: SE 5. Low: 30.

SATURDAY: Light mix, couple inches up north. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 37.

SUNDAY: Partial clearing, good travel weather. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 23. High: 36.

MONDAY: Some sun, feeling better. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 26. High: 43.

TUESDAY: Few rain showers possible. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 30. High: 41.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 32. High: 46.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, drama-free. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 31. High: 43.

This Day in Weather History

November 26th

2001: A strong low pressure system develops in Colorado on the 25th, reached eastern Iowa during the evening of the 26th, then moved into eastern Wisconsin late on the 27th. It produced a wide swath of heavy snow across much of central Minnesota into West Central Wisconsin. Storm total snowfall of 8 inches or more was common, with a large area exceeding 20 inches. Specifically, Willmar picked up 30.4 inches, New London saw 28.5 inches, Collegeville had 23.4 inches, Litchfield and Granite Falls received 22 inches, and Milan had 20 inches. A convective snow band set up across this area on the 27th and remained nearly stationary for over 12 hours, resulting in the extreme storm totals. From 8 am on the 26th to 8 am on the 27th, Willmar received 21 of its 30.4 inches, setting a record for most snowfall in Willmar in a 24 hour period. The heavy wet snow downed numerous power lines, and at one point, at least 20,000 customers were without power in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. Over one thousand traffic accidents were noted across the entire area. Most were minor, but one accident claimed two lives when a car spun out and collided with a semi near Mora.

1995: A narrow band of five to eight inches of snow falls from west central Minnesota around Canby and Granite Falls to east central Minnesota. This included much of the Twin Cities metro area.

1965: A snowstorm develops across northern Minnesota. 14.7 inches of snow fell at Duluth, along with 13.6 inches at Grand Rapids.

1896: A severe Thanksgiving day ice storm develops over southwest and central Minnesota. 1.42 inches of freezing rain falls at Bird Island, and 1.20 inches of freezing rain falls at Montevideo. The ice causes a great deal of damage to trees and shrubs.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

November 26th

Average High: 35F (Record: 62F set in 1914)

Average Low: 20F (Record: -16F set in 1977)

Record Rainfall: 1.76" set in 1896

Record Snowfall: 5.0" set in 1970

Twin Cities Almanac For November 25th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

November 26th

Sunrise: 7:25am

Sunset: 4:35pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 10 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 49 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~6 Hour & 40 Minutes

Moon Phase for November 26th at Midnight

2.2 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

0.2 Day Before Last Quarter Moon (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Friday

The weather outlook on Friday shows cooler than average temps lingering across the eastern half of the nation, while well above average temps will be in place across parts of the western US. The best chance of precipitation will be found in the Pacific Northwest and also in the Northeast.

National Weather Outlook For Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through the weekend shows somewhat unsettled weather across the northern tier of the nation. Some of the heaviest precipitation will be found in the Pacific Northwest and in the Northeast, while lighter precipitation will be found in the Midwest.

Weather Outlook Through Saturday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, heavier precipitation will be found in the Pacific Northwest, the Southern US and also in the Northeast. Meanwhile, minimal precipitation will be found across much of the Central and Western US.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Potential

Here's the extended snowfall potential, which shows heavier snowfall across Much of Canada. There also appears to be heavier snowfall potential across parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Meanwhile, minimal snowfall will be found across the Upper Midwest.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Nationwide Droughts Have Affected These 6 Grocery Items This Year"

"It's no secret that your grocery bill has been steadily climbing for the last 11 months. Pandemic-induced supply shortages, shipping delays, and shrinkflation have contributed to rising food prices throughout 2021. But grocery stores and consumers are also facing fallout from the country's drought problem. More than 83% of California, much like other areas of the country, experienced an "extreme drought" by late October, meaning that the farmland had insufficient water to maintain crops and wildlife, according to MarketWatch. Food costs have been "feeling the production, transportation and labor squeeze" and unfortunately, this means "we're likely to see drought impacts picking up into 2022," agricultural economist Isaac Olvera told the news outlet."

"The iPhone has a hidden snow alert to let you know when it's coming"

At the moment, it's touch and go whether the UK will be buttoning up for snow as the temperature plunges in the coming weeks. But if you've got an iPhone, you can get advanced warning before the blizzard hits. It's thanks to a little-known setting hidden in Apple's Weather app that'll ping you an alert if snow is heading your way. The change was made as part of Apple's overhaul of its Weather app for iOS 15 – the latest version of its mobile operating system that launched in September. To activate the weather alert, you'll need to be updated to the latest version of iOS – which you can check in the Settings menu, under General and then Software Update. Once you're rocking the latest version, you can choose to be notified about incoming rain, hail or snow. Here's how to do it:

  • Tap on Settings, scroll down to Privacy and tap on Location Services.
  • Scroll down to Weather and tap on it. Then, tap on the location setting for Always.
  • For even more accurate results, toggle on the Precise Location option.
  • From there, exit the Settings menu and open the Weather app directly.
  • Tap the menu item on the bottom right (three dots and three horizontal lines) and you'll see the 'Stay Dry' option in a box at the top.
  • Tap 'Turn on Notifications' to set up the alerts.

"Explainer: what is La Niña?"

The Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared a La Niña event is happening this summer. So what is a La Niña event, and how do we know it's happening?

What is La Niña?

La Niña, and its counterpart El Niño, are large-scale weather events that happen in the Pacific Ocean.

El Niño was originally named by Peruvian fishermen when they noticed the warmer currents around their coast. It means 'little boy' in Spanish, and La Niña means 'little girl'.

There is normally a large body of warm water in the Western Pacific, to the north-east of New Guinea. Sea-surface temperatures there are some of the highest in the world, and – as a result – a lot of water evaporates in that area and leads to precipitation around the Western Pacific.

"In a La Niña season, this body of water becomes even warmer, and the waters around northeastern Australia heat up more than usual. This means that more water is evaporating and turning into precipitation around eastern Australia. By contrast, the eastern side of the Pacific sees cooler water than usual in a La Niña season, meaning that there are drier conditions on the coasts of the Americas. "The trade winds are stronger during a La Niña," says Dr Nina Ridder, a researcher at the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes at the University of New South Wales. Trade winds are winds that usually blow east-to-west around the equator. "What is happening is that the temperature difference between east and west over the Pacific increases, so we get stronger winds." El Niño is when the opposite event happens: water by the Americas heats up, and Western Pacific water cools down. This causes drier conditions in Australia, and wetter on the other side of the Pacific."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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