Severe Drought Into The Metro - Some Storm Chances

Unfortunately, the drought has mostly continued to get worse across the state of Minnesota over the past week, even with some of the rain that we have received. D2 Severe Drought has expanded into the east metro and around the Rochester area and now covers ~8.5% of the state (up from ~4.9% last week). At least Abnormally Dry conditions cover almost the entire state (~98%).

We did see some improvement week-to-week in parts of Northeastern Minnesota in areas that saw at least 1-2" above average precipitation over the past week. Otherwise, only degradation occurred once again - focused in parts of southern and north-central/northeast Minnesota.

Since the beginning of meteorological summer on June 1st, only 1.50" of rain has fallen at MSP Airport - over 3.75" below average and the ninth driest start on record. Looking back at last year, only 1.45" had fallen across this time frame for the seventh driest.

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It was a chilly start in northern Minnesota on Thursday, with morning lows in some locations dropping into the 30s. The coldest location I could find was 2 miles east of Celina, which dropped to 33F.

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As we look at the metro on your Friday, we'll see quickly increasing clouds throughout the day as a system brings the potential of some rain across southern Minnesota. Some of this could reach the metro late in the day.

Morning temperatures will start off in the upper 50s (another morning where the air conditioning can be turned off to start the day with no wildfire smoke around) with highs climbing to the upper 70s. The temperatures will quickly level off as we head into the afternoon with cloudier conditions.

We will be watching - especially into the afternoon hours - some stronger storms will be possible across northern and western Minnesota. We'll also track the potential of rain moving into southern Minnesota as we head through the afternoon hours. Highs across much of the state will be in the 70s, but some 60s are possible along the North Shore.

A few of the storms that form Friday afternoon and evening across northern and western Minnesota may end up being on the strong side, with a Marginal Risk (threat level 1/5) in place. Damaging winds are the primary threat.

Potential rain through 7 AM Saturday.

Rainfall amounts of maybe up to around a half an inch are expected across northern and western Minnesota later Friday into Friday Night with whatever storms are expected to form.

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Saturday: Another day around 80F is expected Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds. I still can't rule out an isolated shower or storm for the metro, but chances are only in the 20-30% range.

Sunday: We'll see another day with a sun/cloud mix in the metro, but storms should stay mainly across northern Minnesota. It'll be the warmest day of the weekend with temperatures climbing back into the mid-80s.

Monday: A slight peek ahead toward the beginning of the work week next week shows scattered showers and storms around with what is expected to be the warmest day of the next seven in the mid-80s. Breezy conditions are also expected.

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Severe Drought Into The Metro - Some Storm Chances
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

Our switch from winter to summer this year was quite short, and with it has come a dearth of precipitation. Since May 15th - the time the water spigot seemed to turn off - only 1.67" has fallen at MSP (the second driest such timeframe) and 0.98" has dropped in St. Cloud (the driest such period).

With the dry weather, the drought continues to expand. In Thursday's Drought Monitor update, D2 Severe drought expanded to cover ~8.5% of Minnesota (vs. last week's ~4.9%). In this expansion, Severe drought now covers the eastern half of the metro and Rochester. D1 Moderate drought covers over half (~56.7%) of Minnesota, with almost all of the state (~98%) at least abnormally dry.

Clouds will be on the increase today, and a few storms capable of strong winds will be possible late in the day in northern and western Minnesota. While we will see some storm chances through the weekend into early next week in the metro, it doesn't look like it would be enough to really start breaking us out of the drought.

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D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. A late day shower/storm? Wake up 60. High 79. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Spotty shower or storm. Wake up 59. High 81. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Northern MN storms. Wake up 59. High 85. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Showers and storms around. Wake up 66. High 87. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind WSW 10-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Breezy. Scattered storms. Wake up 62. High 81. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind W 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Still breezy. Slow clearing skies. Wake up 61. High 82. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Dry with some afternoon clouds. Wake up 61. High 82. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 7th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 27 minutes, and 23 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 6 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Sunlight? July 24th (14 hours, 59 minutes, 22 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises After 6 AM? August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 8:30 PM? August 8th (8:30 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
July 7th

2000: Torrential rains douse the southern Twin Cities metro area with 8 inches in a three to five hour span in northern Dakota county. Eagan receives the most damage; many homes were flooded.

1955: A tornado hits Marshall, leaving one dead and 13 injured. Hail causes one million dollars in damage.

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More showers and thunderstorms are expected across the eastern two-thirds of the United States on Friday, due to several areas of low pressure and frontal boundaries that are in place. The highest potential of severe storms will be from the Front Range into portions of the Central and Southern Plains. Record highs will be possible in southern Florida.

Very heavy rain is expected across Kansas and Oklahoma through the first half of the weekend, with the potential of at least 3-5" of rain.

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Earth sees third straight hottest day on record, though it's unofficial: "Brutally hot"

More from CBS News: "Earth's average temperature remained at a record high Wednesday after two days in which the planet reached unofficial records. It's the latest marker in a series of climate-change-driven extremes. The average global temperature was 62.9 degrees, according to the University of Maine's Climate Reanalyzer, a tool that uses satellite data and computer simulations to measure the world's condition. That matched a record set Tuesday and came after a previous record of 62.6 degrees was set Monday. Not only that but last month was the world's hottest June since records have been kept, the European Union's climate monitoring service said, according to Agence France-Presse. "The month was the warmest June globally ... exceeding June 2019 — the previous record — by a substantial margin," the EU monitor said in a statement from its C3S climate unit."

Wildfires that burn buildings and vehicles may produce more toxic smoke than those in the wilderness

More from SmartCitiesDive: "It's no secret that wildfires produce stifling smoke and hazardous pollutants. The emissions may be more toxic when blazes reach communities, incinerating buildings and vehicles, rather than remain in the wilderness, according to a new study by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency researchers. Because they burn manufactured materials, the smoke from these wildfires may contain significantly higher levels of "acutely toxic and carcinogenic" chemicals, such as volatile organic compounds, heavy metals and hydrogen chloride, the study says. "There's a lot more chlorine in the built environment than there is in the natural environment," said Amara Holder, an EPA research mechanical engineer who led the study. The emissions pose a "unique threat to public health," the study warns, since these fires may burn close to populated areas."

The overlooked climate consequences of AI

More from Grist: ""Something's fishy," declared a March newsletter from the right-wing, fossil fuel-funded think tank Texas Public Policy Foundation. The caption looms under an imposing image of a stranded whale on a beach, with three huge offshore wind turbines in the background. Something truly was fishy about that image. It's not because offshore wind causes whale deaths, a groundless conspiracy pushed by fossil fuel interests that the image attempts to bolster. It's because, as Gizmodo writer Molly Taft reported, the photo was fabricated using artificial intelligence. Along with eerily pixelated sand, oddly curved beach debris, and mistakenly fused together wind turbine blades, the picture also retains a tell-tale rainbow watermark from the artificially intelligent image generator DALL-E. DALL-E is one of countless AI models that have risen to otherworldly levels of popularity, particularly in the last year. But as hundreds of millions of users marvel at AI's ability to produce novel images and believable text, the current wave of hype has concealed how AI could be hindering our ability to make progress on climate change."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser