Showers Possible Monday With Widespread Rain Tuesday

American (NAM) forecast loop from 1 AM Monday to 1 PM Monday.

As we watch a system off to our south slowly move from the Southwest Sunday into the Great Lakes Wednesday, we will be watching a few rounds of precipitation the next few days. The first comes in later Sunday Night into Monday morning with the chance of some showers across eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin. A few more widely scattered showers are possible during the day across the state, but those aren't expected to add up to much.

So we watch those precipitation chances at times across the state on Monday, otherwise, a fairly cloudy day is expected. Highs will range from the 30s in the Arrowhead and North Shore to the 60s in southern Minnesota.

Looking at the Twin Cities, an afternoon in the 60s is expected with highs topping off around 62F. We watch those shower chances, which again those chances could be highest in the morning hours.

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American (GFS) model loop from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Wednesday.

The prolonged period of precipitation with this area of low pressure moving through the central United States won't begin here in the upper Midwest until Monday Night, lasting through Tuesday and into Tuesday Night. While the majority of central and southern Minnesota will see rain Monday Night and Tuesday, we will watch the potential for freezing rain changing to snow along the North Shore/Arrowhead and snow across other areas of northern Minnesota. As we head through Tuesday, some of that precipitation on the back end could start to change over to some snow, but we won't see that occur here in the metro until Tuesday Night. Some lingering snowflakes will be possible across the state Wednesday, especially in the morning hours.

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Most of the state will see at least a half an inch of liquid - whether it be in the form of rain or melted freezing rain/snow, with some of the heaviest expected in southern Minnesota and across the North Shore.

The North Shore will see the heaviest snow with this system, with areas of 5-8" possible from Duluth right up to Grand Marais. Otherwise, a general 3-6" will be possible across the northern third of the state - generally (at the moment) north of Brainerd. We will have to watch the back end of the snow, though, as it swings through central and southern Minnesota as I would not be surprised to see a slushy inch or two accumulate in some spots as it moves through.

We will also watch the potential of some icing across northern Minnesota with this system. Some areas could see at least a glaze of ice.

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Monday looks to be the warmest of the next several days, with those highs topping off in the low 60s. The system moving through the central U.S. will help usher down some cooler air for the middle of the week with highs only in the 40s Tuesday through Thursday before starting to climb heading toward the weekend.

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Meteorological Musings on a Mild Monday
By Paul Douglas

A movie trailer for "The Lost City" includes a scene where Sandra Bullock asks Brad Pit "Why are you so handsome?" To which Pitt replies "My dad was a weatherman". My take: there are exceptions to every rule. A recent (fairly unscientific) poll found that meteorologists are the "least creepy' profession. Clowns, taxidermists and funeral directors are apparently at the top of that list. Which is all marvelous distraction from talking about potholes, slush and tournament snowstorms.

Yesterday my neighbors emerged from hibernation, smiling through gritted teeth. Today? 60s and showery rains. Steadier, heavier rain pushes in Tuesday. Totals may range from half an inch to an inch. Your lawn should green up faster than you thought possible a few days ago.

Enough cold air will infiltrate this week's storm for a period of wet snow Tuesday PM into Wednesday. Plowable amounts are possible over far northern Minnesota, with a coating in the metro.

Looking ahead I see a streak of 40s and 50s. Above zero, I might add.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Clouds, few showers. Wake up 46. High 65. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: A cold rain, heavy at times. Wake up 37. High 39. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Raw. Slushy snow, metro coating? Wake up 32. High 36. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind NE 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny and cool. Wake up 25. High 45. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

FRIDAY: Clouds increase, passing shower. Wake up 26. High 47. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Some sun with a cool wind. Wake up 24. High 42. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

SUNDAY: Sunnier and milder. Wale up 30. High 55. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
March 21st

*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 12 minutes, and 46 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 9 seconds

*When Do We See 12.5 Hours Of Daylight: March 27th (12 hours, 31 minutes, 40 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 7 AM?: March 29th (6:59 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 7:30 PM?: March 24th (7:30 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
March 21st

1953: A tornado hits the northern St. Cloud area. High winds from thunderstorms are experienced from Martin to Stearns County.

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We will be watching a powerful Spring storm impacting the central United States on Monday, with strong storms in the Southern Plains, snow in the Rockies, and icing in the Minnesota Arrowhead.

Very heavy rains will be possible in the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley through the first part of the week, with some areas seeing 3-6" of rainfall. Snow will be heaviest in the higher elevations out west, but with the system moving into the central U.S. a stripe of several inches could be possible from the Texas Panhandle to northern Minnesota.

This system is also bringing the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms to begin the work week. On Monday, an Enhanced threat of severe weather (threat level 3 of 5) is in place across portions of Texas, including the Houston metro. Tornadoes (some strong) and very large hail are the main threats, but damaging winds are also possible. Moving to Tuesday, we have a Moderate risk (threat level 4 of 5) across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, with a severe weather outbreak of significant tornadoes possible.

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How Climate Change Is Disrupting the Global Supply Chain

More from Yale Climate Connections: "The Covid pandemic has rightly received most of the blame for global supply chain upheavals in the last two years. But the less publicized threat to supply chains from climate change poses a far more serious threat and is already being felt, scholars and experts say. The pandemic is "a temporary problem," while climate change is "long-term dire," said Austin Becker, a maritime infrastructure resilience scholar at the University of Rhode Island. "Climate change is a slow-moving crisis that is going to last a very, very long time, and it's going to require some fundamental changes," said Becker. "Every coastal community, every coastal transportation network is going to face some risks from this, and we're not going to have nearly enough resources to make all the investments that are required.""

Regrown Tropical Forests May Have Short Lifespans, Says New Study

More from Columbia Climate School: "Preventing the re-clearing of second-growth forests is a major challenge for restoration efforts in tropical regions, according to a new study led by researchers from Columbia University, University of São Paulo and the Federal University of ABC in Brazil. The study found that a third of regenerating areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest were cut down again, most after just 4 to 8 years of regeneration. Natural forest regeneration is regarded as a cost-effective strategy for countries to meet their ecological restoration and carbon sequestration goals. While reports of forest recovery in tropical regions generate optimism, recent research by the study authors and others has suggested that restored forests have a high probability of being cleared within a few years."

Climate change: Wildfire smoke linked to Arctic melting

More from the BBC: "Over the past decade, smoke from raging wildfires in Australia, Portugal, Siberia and the US have changed the colour of the skies. The smoke has impacted human health, and the amount of carbon released by the burning has helped push emissions to record levels. But now scientists say that all this burning has contributed to another serious issue - the loss of sea ice in the Arctic."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser