Smoky Skies Return - A Few Storms Around Friday

We continue to see worsening drought across the state, with 100% of Minnesota now considered at least abnormally dry. The worst category of drought in place in the state - D2 Severe Drought - now covers 11.25% of Minnesota, up from 8.48% last week.

While we did see some slight improvement in some areas of the state - including the east metro and around the Twin Ports - most of the change that occurred week-to-week was degradation in the drought across the state.

As we head through Friday here in the metro we'll watch a couple of chances of storms - one in the early morning hours, another in the afternoon. Unfortunately, smoky skies and potentially poor air quality will return - more on that in a moment. Morning temperatures start off in the mid-60s with highs climbing to the upper 80s.

Forecast loop from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM Saturday.

As with the past several rain chances, storms are likely to be hit-and-miss across the state Friday afternoon and evening, with not everyone seeing rain. Even then, this rain is not going to really put a dent into the drought.

So we will watch scattered shower and storm chances across the state with a cold front moving into northern Minnesota Friday, but the big story (more on it below) is smoky skies returning to the region. Highs will range from the 60s along the North Shore to the upper 80s in southern Minnesota.

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With a switch in winds to be out of the northwest over the next few days, we once again will have to track Canadian wildfire smoke working into the region. This is a look at the smoke aloft from Thursday evening into Saturday morning, indicating that we will see at least hazy conditions due to the smoke working in. Models show two periods for the metro with a greater concentration of smoke aloft - one from the late morning to afternoon hours on Friday and another toward Saturday morning.

Forecast smoke near the surface from 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Saturday.

Models are indicating that some of this smoke could mix down toward the surface - especially as we head toward Friday afternoon - which could bring health and air quality concerns to the region.

Graphic: Praedictix

The forecast above shows the potential of at least moderate to unhealthy air across the state Friday into Friday Night as that wildfire smoke moves in.

Saturday: Smoky skies - and potentially air quality concerns at the surface - are expected to continue into Saturday across the region. A few showers or storms will be possible in the afternoon across northern Minnesota. Mid-80s are expected for highs in the metro.

Sunday: Slightly cooler conditions are expected with highs around 80F. I'm expecting a few more clouds vs. Saturday for the metro, with additional showers/storms possible at times in northern Minnesota. Breezy conditions are expected with gusts up to 30 mph.

Monday: Sneak peek into early next week shows highs several degrees below average but with a mix of sun and clouds to sunny conditions.

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Smoky Skies Return - A Few Storms Around Friday
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

No 100s, or even 90s, in sight over the next seven days for the metro. A cold front will still bring some storm chances today, but the bigger story for the next few days will be wildfire smoke working back into the region. This smoke will cause at least hazy conditions, but models are indicating some of this smoke will likely reach the surface causing air quality concerns.

Drought continues to intensify across Minnesota. As of Thursday, the entire state is at least abnormally dry, with 63.65% under at least Moderate (D1) drought and 11.25% under Severe (D2) drought - including a chunk of the metro. Some areas of southern Minnesota are at least 2-3" below average rainfall-wise over the past month.

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D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Smoke & storm concerns. Wake up 67. High 88. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind W 5-15 mph.

SUNDAY: Breezy with some more clouds. Wake up 61. High 80. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 10-25 mph.

MONDAY: Dry with PM clouds. Avg. high 84F. Wake up 57. High 78. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Late night rain? Wake up 57. High 82. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Some showers and storms around. Wake up 63. High 86. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 5-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Clearing skies. Warm. Wake up 65. High 86. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 5-15 mph.

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 14th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 17 minutes, and 48 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 32 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Sunlight? July 24th (14 hours, 59 minutes, 22 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises After 6 AM? August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 8:30 PM? August 8th (8:30 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
July 14th

2003: At least eleven tornadoes hit Minnesota. Baseball-sized hail is reported at Indus in Koochiching County.

1916: Heavy downpours at New Ulm dump over seven inches of rain in seven hours.

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The heat bubble continues to impact the Southwest and Southern Plains, with highs in the 100s - even 110s in the desert Southwest. As we head through the next few days, some of this heat could approach all-time records for some locations in the Southwest. Meanwhile, we'll watch at least scattered storm activity from the Rockies eastward. Strong storms are possible, particularly in the southern and central Plains.

Forecast smoke near the surface from 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Saturday.

Air quality could be a concern through the end of the week across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest as another batch of Canadian wildfire smoke works south of the border due to a cold front passing through the region.

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Is Minnesota Forever Doomed to Smoky Summer Skies?

More from Racket: "This summer, though, we have a new entrant in the pantheon of phenomena for Minnesotans to gripe about. The state has endured a record 23 air quality alerts this year, many of them stemming from wildfire smoke. On June 14, St. Paul earned the unenviable distinction of having the worst air quality in the U.S. David Brown, a spokesman with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, said that day's air was the worst his agency has recorded since it started monitoring metro levels two decades ago. The recurrent sight of skylines being obscured by thick, smoky air has many wondering: Is this the new normal? Are we going to live the rest of our lives checking the summertime Air Quality Index like we check the temperature? And what does this have to do with the defining crisis of our age, climate change? We decided to talk to some smart people and find out. While there's some cause for hope, the future looks about as bleak as our smog-choked metro did last month."

Limited regulations make Texas workers responsible for preventing on-the-job heat injuries

More from the Texas Tribune: "Álvarez worried about his health again when a heat wave this year pushed Texas temperatures into triple digits. The heat has eased for now, but temperatures are forecast to climb again in the coming days. This puts construction workers like Álvarez at risk, as well as others in sectors like agriculture, mail delivery, manufacturing, food preparation and landscaping. There are no federal or state standards that specifically protect workers from heat illness, and Texas cities and counties will soon be barred from making local rules with that purpose. Now more than ever, like Álvarez's case shows, heat safety depends on workers being trained in self-care, supervisors learning to identify symptoms of heat stress and employers' willingness to provide breaks and other protective measures. Heat kills more people annually in the U.S. than hurricanes, tornadoes or flooding. Texas has recorded 42 heat-related deaths on the job since 2011 — more than any other state, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data."

More from Lakeshore Public Media: "But New York's bet on winter sports and tourism faces another big risk — climate change. Upstate New York's winters are already eroding and Olympic authority officials acknowledge they don't know how warmer seasons will affect operations. "It's a question I can't answer fully," said authority board president Joe Martens. "I just don't know the answer. All the metrics in climate are going in the wrong direction at this point." The organization already had a taste of what a warmer future might look like. In 2016, Lake Placid received roughly half as much snow as typical. Week after week, rain fell instead of snow. The organization's revenue from ski mountains and tourist venues plummeted."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser