Snowy Scenes Continue This Week, Starting With The Monday Morning Commute

Forecast from Midnight Sunday Night to 6 PM Tuesday.

We are tracking an area of low pressure that will move across the central United States to begin the work week. While the greatest snow amounts with this system will fall to our south and southeast, most of the state (besides the northwest corner) will get an extended period of light to moderate snow as it moves on past. In southeast Minnesota, snow could start as early as Midnight (plus or minus a couple of hours) Sunday Night, spreading north and east throughout the day. This will bring our first snow chance to the metro, with a band moving through that'll be capable of a couple of tenths of accumulation during or right after the morning commute on Monday. The next snow surge into the metro doesn't appear until Monday evening, despite snow continuing across northern and western Minnesota during the day. More snow will continue to impact the region into Tuesday before finally pushing out.

Snow totals through Wednesday morning

Here are the overall expected snow totals through Wednesday morning across the state. The heaviest totals are expected in southwestern Minnesota, where there will be the potential that some areas could see 6-10" of snow by the time this system pushes out. Because of the lull Monday in snowfall for the metro, snow totals between 1-2" are possible through Wednesday morning, and the greatest odds of the highest values will be in the south metro.

Due to the heavy snow expected across southwestern Minnesota from Sunday Night into Tuesday morning, Winter Storm Warnings have been issued including Marshall and Worthington - where that potential of 6-10" exists. Winter Weather Advisories surround that as far north as Morris and east as Albert Lea, where there is the potential of 2-5" of snow. Right now, Winter Storm Watches remain across Wisconsin and Iowa, not reaching into southeastern Minnesota.

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As was shown above with the model forecast, snow showers will be possible in the metro for the morning commute and just after it before we clear out the snow until the overnight hours. Otherwise, mainly cloudy conditions are expected throughout the day. Morning temperatures bottom out in the mid-20s with highs in the low 30s.

We'll watch those snow chances as we head throughout the day across the state. Those that can escape the snow for some time will see mainly cloudy conditions. Highs range from the teens in northwestern Minnesota to the low 30s in southeastern areas and into western Wisconsin.

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Forecast loop between 6 AM Wednesday and 6 PM Tuesday, January 16th.

After that early week system passes mostly to our south, we are going to see more snow chances pinwheel through the region through the end of the week and into the middle of the month. Models are very mixed on what happens with these systems - some show mainly clippers, others show a larger storm nearby around next weekend. In other words - there seems to be a lot of uncertainty in what will occur, and it'll take us getting closer to these systems (particularly getting past the Monday/Tuesday snow) to start to get an idea of what they really will be capable of. If you see people start posting long-range snow amount forecasts on social media... take them with a grain of salt! However, it does certainly look like we'll continue to freshen up (and hopefully ADD to) the snow that is on the ground for outdoor winter activities.

Behind our systems later this week, colder air will rush into the Upper Midwest from Canada, leading to highs in the teens (and potentially single digits) late next week into the beginning of the third week of January. This would be the coldest air of the winter so far! The coldest low the metro has seen so far this winter was 8F back on November 28th. The coldest high was the day before - November 27th - at 21F.

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Getting Colder With Snowy Encounters
By Paul Douglas

If Canada ever runs out of cold fronts it's game over. I'm vaguely relieved it can still get cold here in January, but as the planet continues to warm we can expect fewer arctic cold fronts, fewer subzero nights and more midwinter rain and ice. That's what the scientists are telling us.

I see a few subzero lows the first half of next week with daytime "highs" in single digits and teens. Maybe a hoodie to go with those shorts? Not exactly record territory, but cold enough.

Nippy air will swirl southward in waves, each new outbreak of fresh air whipping up some snow.

Models keep the biggest storms and heaviest snowfall totals south/east of home, with some 20" amounts (total) for southern Wisconsin and eastern Iowa. In one week the metro area may have 4-5" on the ground with 10-12" southeastern Minnesota. Plowable yes, but no crippling storms or raging blizzards are in sight.

Temperatures should track closer to average (20s, a few 30s) from late January into February. An extended Polar Vortex? I doubt it.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: A little light snow. Wake up 24. High 33. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind E 10-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Snow tapers to flurries. Coating - 1". Wake up 29. High 30. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind N 15-25 mph.

WEDNESDAY: More light snow develops. Wake up 26. High 29. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

THURSDAY: Flurries taper, a cold breeze. Wake up 15. High 20. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

FRIDAY: Couple inches of snow possible. Wake up 19. High 26. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NE 15-30 mph.

SATURDAY: Few flakes, feels like -15F. Wake up 10. High 13. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Flurries taper, feels like -25. Ouch. Wake up -3. High 5. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
January 8th

*Length Of Day: 8 hours, 58 minutes, and 24 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 19 seconds

*When Do We Climb Above 9 Hours Of Daylight? January 10th (9 hours, 1 minutes, 15 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises At/Below 7:30 AM? February 3rd (7:30 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/After 5 PM? January 18th (5:01 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
January 8th

1902: A January Thaw occurs across Minnesota. The Twin Cities experience a high of 46 degrees.

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On Monday, we are tracking a system barreling across the central United States that will bring storm chances in the South and snow/ice concerns farther north. Strong storms will be possible along the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. We will also be watching a system in the Pacific Northwest bringing rain and higher-elevation snow chances.

The system across the central United States to begin the week will bring very heavy rainfall through Tuesday across the Southeast, where rainfall amounts of 3-5" can't be ruled out. Some of this rain is likely to lead to flash flooding. Heavy precipitation is also expected in the Pacific Northwest, but some of that will be snow at the higher elevations.

It'll be the Cascades and Northern Rockies that see the heaviest snow through the beginning of the work week, with 2-4 feet possible. We'll also track a band of at least 4" of snow from the central Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes with the central U.S. system.

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Persistent Wildfire Smoke Is Eroding Rural America's Mental Health

More from The Daily Yonder: "Will and Julie Volpert have led white water rafting trips on Southern Oregon's Rogue and Klamath rivers for over a decade for their company Indigo Creek Outfitters, out of the small town of Talent, Oregon. The rafting season, which extends from May to September, is a perfect time to be out on the river where snowpack-fed cold water provides respite from the region's hot summer. Or it would be perfect if wildfire smoke weren't a looming concern. "We've been in operation here since 2011, and almost every year there's some smoke that comes in and is noticeable on our trips," Will Volpert said in an interview. If people have flexibility, he recommends that they schedule a trip before the third week of July when the likelihood of smoke in the air is lower. Customers frequently cancel in late July and August because of the smoke, especially for day-trips. Federal data shows air quality tends to be more than four times worse on average in Jackson County, Oregon, during this period than earlier in the summer."

Can Florida's corals survive climate change? Fate of one small reef may hold the answer

More from the Miami Herald: "When marine scientist Ian Enochs jumped into the water at Cheeca Rocks, a small reef in the Florida Keys known for vibrantly colorful corals, what he saw shook him to the core. "Literally everything was white," said Enochs, a research ecologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Miami. "It does not look normal at all, it's just like a different reef." It was July, still early in what would become the hottest summer on record in South Florida, and Enochs was witnessing a mass event bleaching — a telltale trouble sign that corals are struggling in abnormally hot ocean waters. Keys reefs have been hit periodically by bleaching over the decades and recovered, the corals weakened but still alive. But prolonged bleaching can prove fatal. To Enochs, this looked severe and potentially lethal. "The flesh, the tissue [of the soft corals] were just falling off of them," Enochs said, "They were literally falling apart before our eyes.""

Extreme heat is pushing India to the brink of 'survivability.' One obvious solution is also a big part of the problem

More from CNN: "By 2050, India will be among the first places where temperatures will cross survivability limits, according to climate experts. And within that time frame, the demand for air conditioners (AC) in the country is also expected to rise nine-fold, outpacing all other appliances, according to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). ... India emits nearly 2.4 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) a year based on data collected by the European Union – contributing about 7% of global emissions. The United States, by comparison, causes 13% of CO2 emissions, despite having a quarter of India's population. This raises a question of fairness that climate scientists have often asked: should people in the developing world shoulder the cost of reducing emissions, despite being among those least responsible for rising greenhouse gases?"

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser