Specter of socially distant winter sends shivers through many Minnesotans

On a sunny afternoon, Hawo Abdi was among the women in vibrant dresses and headscarves clustered near the entrance to Minneapolis' Riverside Plaza apartments, chatting in Somali as their children played nearby. She and her kids have been spending three or four hours outside every day this summer, eating their lunch outdoors, too.

If it's rainy or cold, Abdi would typically take her kids to the Minnesota Children's Museum — something she no longer feels safe doing because of the coronavirus pandemic. So what will happen when frigid air forces her family of six back into their two-bedroom apartment? "We're going to be crazy," Abdi said. "I'm worried about it."

This past spring and summer, many Minnesotans socialized outdoors as relief from sheltering in place. In lieu of sidling up to a dim, crowded bar, or catching a new release at the cineplex, we took up socially distanced walks, spaced our towels at the beach, and dined on restaurant patios and sidewalks.

Staying 6 feet apart, we could still get out and interact with others, with low risk of contracting COVID-19.

But winter's arrival will further cramp our already corona­virus-restricted lifestyles. Hospitals anticipate the double whammy of flu season, distance-learners fear academic regression, and solo dwellers face greater isolation.

And that's on top of conditions that have already disrupted daily life like nothing we've seen in decades.

The year 2020, as Abdi put it, "is going to be the story of a book."

Among the contradictory and uncertain messaging about how to protect ourselves from the coronavirus, one piece of advice has been blessedly clear: Outdoor interactions are safer than indoors.

"Everything we're doing with ventilation indoors is to try to get it to behave like the outdoors," said Chris Hogan, a professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Minnesota.

Hogan, editor of the Journal of Aerosol Science, focuses on the physics of how particles such as pesticides and viruses travel through the air. He explained how the huge volume of air outdoors causes airborne particles that would linger indoors to disperse very quickly.

"Personally, I'd always take outdoors over indoors because of the dilution," he said.

Airborne coronavirus can enter your respiratory system in two primary ways, Hogan explained.

If you are close to a person who coughs, sneezes, speaks or even breathes, you could inhale particles directly, momentarily after they're expelled.

Additionally, and more insidiously, the virus can remain suspended in stagnant air for several hours.

The risk of inhaling these lingering particles is based on the concentration of the virus — the number of particles divided by the volume of air — multiplied by the time of exposure.

To mitigate the risk of coronavirus transmission indoors, Hogan recommends increasing ventilation by opening windows or increasing your HVAC system's rate of air exchange.

Recirculating air purifiers using filters and ultraviolet light can also help, he said.

Chris Anderson was heeding Hogan's advice, seated at the Wienery's outdoor counter enjoying a specialty sausage that had lured him from Shakopee. "Once I found out they had the window open, I had to come out," he said.

Anderson and Robyn Farm of Savage, seated beside him, said they had spent the summer picnicking and doing other outdoor activities that seemed less feasible come winter.

"It's going to be harder to get out," Farm said. "I think your mental health might change as well."

Susan Holter, too, shudders in anticipation of her social options shrinking, and her increased anxiety about the days getting shorter.

"Just the thought of that makes me wonder what we're going to be able to do to get ourselves through the winter," she said. "Life just seems very boring."

Holter has already noticed she's having fewer social interactions with neighbors in her Loring Park apartment building, as people who have lost their jobs move out.

And she expects that seeing family will soon be curtailed, too.

This summer, Holter has been getting together with her 81-year-old mother and 23-year-old daughter at local parks, where they space out their chairs and eat their own snacks. But those visits will go virtual when it gets cold.

"I already told my mom we probably won't be able to spend the holidays together, which is sad," Holter said. "I think the winter is going to be rough."

Steve Schreader is feeling more optimistic about Minnesotans' ability to adapt. The Midwest Mountaineering manager listed a few ways people might continue backyard socializing after it snows.

"They'll build a quinzhee hut or an igloo, or get a gazebo and a propane heater," he said.

Since spring, Midwest Mountaineering has been inundated with shoppers hoping to paddle or camp after their usual summer trips, sporting events, and concerts were curtailed. He expects a similar surge in demand for winter-related outdoor gear as more people embrace cross-country skiing, snowshoeing, ice fishing, and even winter camping.

"People are going to start reinventing how they use their time," he said.

Woodland Stoves & Fireplaces has already seen signs that people are making their outdoor spaces more conducive to socializing, as sales of outdoor fireplaces, fire pits and fire tables have increased. Smokeless fire pits have been especially popular — one recent customer said she bought hers so she could host Thanksgiving guests outdoors.

Woodland's owner, Peter Solac, suggested that gathering around a fire during a time of much uncertainty can offer an almost primal sense of comfort.

"Psychologically, people want to be more secure in their homes," he said.

But for every Minnesotan who plans to hunker down when the temperatures dip, there are hardy souls who will stay outdoors. Among them is Allison McGee of St. Paul.

"I look forward to winter," McGee said. "If it ain't zero below, it ain't right."

She plans to buck the local tendency to stay home during the winter months.

"About October everybody starts to social distance anyway," she said. "But true Minnesotans will be in the streets doing what they're doing now."

Rachel Hutton • 612-673-4569