Statistical model puts Kirk Cousins ahead of Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson

Appreciation for or skepticism of Kirk Cousins is often in the eye of the beholder. But even his fiercest defenders and most ardent detractors come from their assessments with some sense of pragmatism.

Even if you like Cousins, you likely concede that he is not in the very top tier of NFL quarterbacks occupied by future Hall of Famers like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. And even if you dislike Cousins, you likely concede that he is far from being the worst option in the league.

Instead, the debate about Cousins often comes down to which part of that squishy middle tier of quarterbacks he belongs. If you interpret Cousins' statistics one way and believe in his ability, you might think he is as high as the 7-10 range. If you look at things another way, you might think he is as low as the 17-20 range.

Complicating matters is that Cousins is being paid like a top-10 quarterback, and while that shouldn't really cloud our perspective of his performance it of course does just that.

It is interesting, then, to note that one statistical model places Cousins firmly in the upper part of that middle tier heading into the 2022 season.

A look at FiveThirtyEight's ELO ratings for quarterbacks shows Cousins at No. 9 overall among his peers. The usual suspects are at the top: Josh Allen of the Bills is No. 1, followed by Patrick Mahomes, Rodgers and Brady.

But getting to Cousins by No. 9 means he's ahead of some pretty big names like Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson.

Statistical models can be fraught with outliers, and you should be warned before getting too optimistic that Mitch Trubisky (No. 13, just named a starter with the Steelers) is also ahead of Jackson in this model and perhaps no other place in the world.

It is also worth pointing out that new Vikings backup Nick Mullens checks in at No. 32, ahead of some presumed starters like Carson Wentz (34) and Matt Ryan (38).

No single evaluation of Cousins should be taken as the gold standard, but add this one to the pile that says Cousins is quite a bit better than average and is probably being paid about what he is worth.

And factoring Cousins into their season simulation, the site gives the Vikings a 55% chance of reaching the playoffs with a predicted 9-8 record — a result that would make it more likely Cousins sticks around Minnesota even longer.