Sunday: Best Chance of T-storms All Week
Storms are bubbling up along the leading edge of hot, humidified air that will bathe Minnesota all week, with 5-6 days at or above 90F. The next significant chance of storms won't come until next weekend, so today is your best bet for a free lawn-watering. Smoke should dissipate by Monday. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
"On the third Sunday in June, Father's Day honors the role fathers play in the family structure and society. The day recognizes not just fathers, but the father figures in our lives. These are the men we look up to who set solid examples for us and guide us throughout our lives. Many families dedicate the day to their fathers and grandfathers. Whether they are first-time fathers just learning to change a diaper, or experienced fathers offering sage advice, the day celebrates everything a father is. Fathers from family to family play a variety of roles. They may be a caregiver, provider, or advisor. Some fathers are the strong, silent types. And yet others tell us stories for days. Fathers teach, guiding small hands as they hammer a nail or sail a kite."
Weather conditions on Sunday will be a little unsettled with a few spotty t-showers developing through the day. Sunday won't be a complete washout, but don't be surprised if you get chased indoors for a time.
'The Fires Here Are Unstoppable'
"An out-of-control fire was advancing rapidly toward a logging road on Tuesday afternoon, tearing through Canada's immense — and highly flammable — boreal forest with a force and intensity bewildering to a team of French firefighters. Surrounded by thick smoke, a handful of them headed into the forest to search for water. A veteran knelt down and used his right finger to sketch a plan on the gravel road, pressing to attack the fire head-on. But the commander was not convinced. The fire, he said, was of an immensity unimaginable in France. The conifers of a combustibility they had never encountered. Trying to douse this tiny patch would be "pointless."
Drought Update
It has been an extremely dry stretch of weather across much of the station over the last several weeks. Only a few locations have seen decent pockets of rain, but the drought is expanding and getting works.
Driest May 15st - June 16th On Record at MSP
According to NOAA's NWS, this is the driest May 15st through June 16th on record with only 0.26" of rain falling at the MSP Airport. We should be picking up nearly an inch of rain every week, but we've rarely had any substantial anywhere. It's definitely dry out there and it's getting worse.
30 Day Precipitation Anomaly
The map below shows the 30 day precipitation anomaly, which indicates that some locations are nearly -3.00" or more below average (in red) since mid May. This is where drought conditions are expanding... We could use some rain and buckets-loads at that!
Simulated Radar Through Midday Monday
Here's the weather outlook through midday Monday, which shows a weak disturbance moving into the Upper Midwest with spotty showers and thunderstorms into Sunday and Sunday. Severe weather concerns remain low with only pockets of rain expected through the day. It'll be enough to wet a few lawns and gardens, but not the widespread soaking we need.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended rainfall outlook through the weekend shows pockets of decent rainfall here and there west of the Twin Cities Metro. Some locations could see up to an inch or more, but again, it'll be pretty isolated.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday, June 18th shows slightly more unsettled weather in place through the day. Again, Sunday will not be a washout, but there will be some isolated t-showers developing through the day.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
The hourly temps through the day Sunday show temps starting in the mid 60s in the morning with highs warming into the upper 70s by the afternoon. Spotty showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible through the day with southeasterly winds around 10mph to 15mph.
Weather Outlook For Sunday
Temps across the region on Sunday will warm into the 70s and 80s, which at or slightly above average for this time of the year. There will also be a few thundershowers here and there during the day, but mainly across the central and eastern part of Minnesota. Far western Minnesota looks drier with a little more sunshine and warmer temps in the afternoon.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temperatures for the Twin Cities will be a little closer to average on Sunday, but will be quite a bit warmer than average as we head into next week with readings back into the 90s. Temps much of next week will be anywhere from +10F to +15F above average!
Comfy Dewpoints Continue
Dewpoints will become a little more sticky through early next week with readings in the low/mid 60s. After our rain chances fade, temps will get hotter with slightly lower dewpoints into next week.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities will be pretty hot into next week with several days reaching the low/mid 90s. Later next week and into the weekend could feature a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. Stay tuned...
Extended Temperature Outlook
The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps consistently into the 80s and 90s as we approach the end of the month. The warmest days arrive next week with a string of low/mid 90s, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average.
Weather Outlook
A few showers and thunderstorms will slide through the Midwest with more widespread storms across the Deep South, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. It'll turn a little quieter through midweek, before another slow moving impulse of energy moves back into the Midwest later next week with additional t-shower chances.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures settling in across much of the Central US, including the Midwest.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across parts of the northern tier of the nation with drier weather across the Southwestern US.
Watching The Tropics
According to NOAA's NHC, there is a wave of energy in the eastern Atlantic that has a high probability of tropical formation over the next 7 days as it drifts west.
"A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic."
Today: Best Chance of T-storms All Week
By Paul Douglas
On June 17, 2010 a total of 48 tornadoes touched down on Minnesota, making it the most active single day on record. EF-4 tornadoes struck near Albert Lea, Parker's Prairie and Wadena, with several fatalities. We had 71 tornadoes in June and 113 for the year; the most in the nation. During an average year Minnesota sees about 30twisters, so yes, it was a big deal.
So far 2023 has brought only 4 tornadoes. Last year at this time 80 tornado warnings had been issued. The drought has pretty much shut down thunderstorm season. Which makes today's chance of slow-moving showers and T-storms significant. A few half-inch-plus rainfall amounts are possible, even an inch or more in a few lucky towns that win the rainfall lotto.
Storms are bubbling up along the leading edge of hot, humidified air that will bathe Minnesota all week, with 5-6 days at or above 90F. The next significant chance of storms won't come until next weekend, so today is your best bet for a free lawn-watering. Smoke should dissipate by Monday.
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Showers and T-storms. Winds: SE 8-13. High: 80.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: ESE 5-10. Low: 65.
MONDAY: Hot sunshine. Winds: S 10-15. High: 89.
TUESDAY: Sweaty sunshine. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 68. High 92.
WEDNESDAY: Hazy sunshine, plenty hot. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up. 70. High: 92.
THURSDAY: Sticky sunshine, stray PM T-storm. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 71. High 90.
FRIDAY: Muggy with a passing T-storm. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 73. High 92.
SATURDAY: Stinking hot. Few PM T-storms. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 73. High: 93.
This Day in Weather History
June 18th
1939: A deadly tornado hits Anoka. 9 fatalities and over 200 injuries are reported.
1850: Territorial Governor Ramsey reports that about halfway between Ft. Ripley and Ft. Snelling on the Mississippi a severe hail storm occurred in the evening. One or two hailstones picked up were as large as hen's eggs and he thought he saw one about the size of a 'musket ball.'
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 18th
Average High: 80F (Record: 98F set in 1953)
Average Low: 61F (Record: 39F set in 1876)
Record Rainfall: 1.37" set in 2020
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 18th
Sunrise: 5:26am
Sunset: 9:02pm
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 35 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +14 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 hour & 49 minutes
Moon Phase for June 18th at Midnight
1.1 Days Since New Moon
National High Temps on Sunday
Temperatures on Sunday will return to above average levels across much the of Central US and especially across the Southern US, where record heat will be possible through early next week. Meanwhile, the West Coast will be cooler than average with temps only warming into the 50s and 60s for some.
National Weather Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday will still be unsettled across the Central and Southern US, where strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. There will also be a little rain and possible a wintry mix across the northern Rockies.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Monday shows unsettled weather continuing across the Central and Southern US with strong to severe thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast States. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and large hail along with locally heavy rainfall.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation developing from parts of the Central US and certainly into the Southeastern US, where several inches of rain and flooding concerns can't be ruled out.
Climate Stories
"Walking is the perfect hot weather workout – here are 5 ways to make the most of it"
"Right now, the mere thought of a HIIT workout leaves us sweating, and even the most dedicated runner is surely finding it tricky to muster up enthusiasm for so much as a light jog around the park. But just because the mercury is soaring, it doesn't mean you can't still enjoy getting your sweat on – the method might require a little tweaking, but you can still enjoy being active. If running is your jam, you might be struggling to switch to another form of exercise and reluctant to miss out on the endorphin high that pounding the pavements brings. But we have good news: walking might be your new (fitness) BFF."
"6 simple secrets to keeping your lawn looking lush in hot, dry weather - according to a top expert"
"When the temperatures start soaring, the first thing we often worry about in the garden is the lawn. But learning how to grow grass in hot, dry weather will help you successfully navigate a drought. As these best plants for a dry garden will prove, you can have a bountiful bloom in a hot garden, but there are some top tips for growing grass in dry weather that can help steer you through particularly dry times. 'Grass is typically one of the most resilient plant species in our garden but will still face challenges and significant stress from extended periods of hot and dry conditions during the summer months,' says Andrew Gaumond, horticulturist and editorial director at Petal Republic."
"'A war for water': Europe sounds the alarm on water stress ahead of another extreme summer"
"European lawmakers issued a stark warning about the region's growing water crisis ahead of another extreme summer, saying there is a pressing need to tackle issues such as scarcity, food security and pollution. Speaking at a European Parliament plenary session entitled "The Water Crisis in Europe" on Thursday, lawmakers called for increased action to preserve and improve water resources, already affected by several years of depleting groundwater levels as the climate crisis continues to intensify. Record-breaking temperatures through spring and a historic winter heatwave have taken a visible toll on the region's rivers and ski slopes, while protests have broken out over water shortages in both France and Spain. "Copernicus satellite imagery acts as a sad confirmation that many parts of the union face intense difficulty," EU Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson said during her opening remarks."
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
But next week will end with comfortable 60s and 70s.