Sunday: Warmest October Day Ever - More Records Possible Monday - Cooler With Showers Mid-Week

The high on Sunday hit 92F in the Twin Cities, not only breaking the record for October 1st but making it the warmest October day in recorded history. St. Cloud also saw their warmest October day on record, with Eau Claire tying theirs.

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Saturday was a record-breaking day in the Twin Cities as the high climbed to 88F, beating the previous record of 87F in 1897. We just missed tying the warmest low for September 30th on record (which was 68F in 1878).

It was southern Minnesota that saw the heat on Saturday, clearing out the cloud cover much earlier in the day than areas like St. Cloud and Brainerd. Not only did the Twin Cities see a record high, but Rochester also climbed to a record high of 90F.

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We continue to see a lot of the state within the 25-75% fall color categories according to the latest update from the Minnesota DNR Fall Color Finder, but we are starting to see a few more parks reaching the 75-100% category. Bear Head Lake State Park (75-100%) reported on Sunday that, "Aspens are stealing the show with their bright yellow coin-like leaves lighting up the park by air and by land. The maples are PAST PEAK with the majority of their autumn coats covering the forest floor. The palmately lobed leaves which are still hanging on are now embodying their drab color schemes."

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Another warm early October day is expected here in the Twin Cities as we slide into Monday, with morning temperatures around 70F and highs in the mid/upper 80s. The record high for October 2nd is 89F in 1953. Mainly sunny skies are expected, however, I can't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the morning hours.

80s are expected all the way to the Canadian border on Monday, with even a few 90s popping up in southwestern Minnesota. 70s are expected in northwestern Minnesota and along the North Shore. Mainly sunny skies are expected in most locations, however, I can't rule out a few isolated showers or storms in the morning across portions of southern Minnesota - similar to what was seen on Sunday.

Highs once again could be near records across areas of the state. We already mentioned the Twin Cities, but other areas under the potential record threat include Park Rapids and Baudette.

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Tuesday: You see showers in the forecast, but I think they will mainly hold off until at least the evening - if not the overnight - hours as a strong cold front moves through. If they schedule Game 1 of the Wild Card series for the Twins during the daytime hours, it should be dry. Highs once again climb into the 80s - though only in the low to mid-80s. The record high for the day is 90F in 1997.

Wednesday: The cold front has moved through, bringing us highs that are much closer to average in the mid/upper 60s. There is the chance for a few lingering showers in the metro at times, though better chances of that may occur across the northern half of the state and into Wisconsin. At this moment, I think it would be likely they'd be able to get Game 2 of the Twins series in.

We are going to switch seasons with a snap of the fingers with that cold front later this week, as highs for the second half of the week into early next week will only be in the 50s and 60s. Some models do show us warming back into the 70s toward the middle of the month.

The heaviest rain in the mid-week timeframe due to those scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in western Minnesota, where current forecasts have over an inch possible. Rainfall tallies taper off the farther west you go in the 48-hour period between 7 AM Tuesday and 7 AM Thursday, with under a quarter inch possible in the metro and maybe barely any rain for areas like Rochester or Grand Marais.

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September is now over, so we can take a look at some of the full stats for the month. In the temperature department at MSP, it was the warmest September on record with an average temperature of 69.1F.

Meanwhile, precipitation-wise, we picked up 5.72" of rain at MSP this month which is the 14th wettest September on record. Of course, 5.08" of that fell over the last eight days of the month - easily the wettest last eight days of September (previous: 4.24" in 1881).

As we look statewide at precipitation, the other major number that stands out is Duluth, which received over 10" of rain. That 10.36" is the 2nd wettest September on record and the 6th overall wettest month.

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Record Warm September Spills Into October
By Paul Douglas

Don't mind me. I'm raking leaves in flip flops, gazing out at boats on the water in early October. More evidence of a warming atmosphere? Yes, with a caveat. Most of this is natural variability, magnified by background warming. Without a 50% increase in CO2 and 150% increase in methane since the start of the Industrial Revolution, we might have seen mid 80s, but probably not 90F. An extra chemical blanket of man-made climate-warming gases (mostly from burning fossil fuels) makes warm fronts even warmer. El Nino, a warm phase of the Pacific Ocean, is also loading the dice in favor of hotter hots.

September was the warmest on record at MSP (5.6F warmer than average) and the 14th wettest. Record heat sparking tropical downpours in late September was a bit surreal, with some 7-9" rains in the northwest suburbs. Drought is fading but probably not gone altogether yet.

Expect upper 80s today and low 80s Tuesday before a midweek cool front drops daytime highs into the 50s by late week. A few 70s next week? Yep.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Hot sun. Record 89 (1953). Wake up 70. High 88. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Sticky sunshine, late T-storms. Wake up 68. High 84. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind 15-25 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Early shower, then clearing. Wake up 63. High 71. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind W 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Some sun, few showers up north. Wake up 58. High 63. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, gusty. Feels like fall. Wake up 50. High 55. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 20-40 mph.

SATURDAY: More sunshine, winds ease. Wake up 41. High 57. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Plenty of sun, pleasant. Wake up 43. High 64. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 2nd

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 39 minutes, and 47 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 6 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Sunlight? October 15th (10 hours, 59 minutes, 51 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises At/After 7:30 AM? October 17th (7:31 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 6:30 PM? October 14th (6:30 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
October 2nd

1953: A record high of 90 for the St. Cloud area is recorded in 1953 (and later tied in 1992). Minneapolis also sets a record that same day in 1953 with a high of 89 degrees.

1849: Persistent rain at Ft. Snelling accumulates to 4 inches in one and a half days.

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While a few storms remain in Florida on Monday, most of the precipitation across the nation will be from the Plains westward. In these areas, showers, storms, and yes - even some snow - can be expected. Record highs are possible from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes and across portions of eastern Texas.

It'll be part of the Plains that have the greatest rain chances through the first part of the week, with at least 1-2" expected.

And several inches of snow could accumulate at some of the higher elevations of the mountains out west.

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What's the world's longest river? New expedition aims to settle the debate once and for all

More from CNN: "In today's modern age, it might be fair to assume that science has decisively answered some of the bigger questions regarding the natural world – or at least those dependent upon sheer physical measurements. But one seemingly straightforward conclusion has continued to confound: Just what is the longest river in the world? Indeed, in 2023, science is still grappling with the answer. The title of "world's longest river" is officially bestowed upon Africa's Nile by authoritative sources like Encyclopedia Britannica and Guinness World Records. But an upcoming Amazon River expedition by a team of international explorers and researchers – traveling via rafts, horseback and solar-paneled boats – is readying to contest that designation."

Swiss glaciers lose 10% of their volume in two years

More from The Guardian: "Swiss glaciers have lost 10% of their volume in just two years, a report has found. Scientists have said climate breakdown caused by the burning of fossil fuels is the cause of unusually hot summers and winters with very low snow volume, which have caused the accelerating melts. The volume lost during the hot summers of 2022 and 2023 is the same as that lost between 1960 and 1990. The analysis by the Swiss Academy of Sciences found 4% of Switzerland's total glacier volume vanished this year, the second-biggest annual decline on record. The largest decline was in 2022, when there was a 6% drop, the biggest thaw since measurements began."

Weather Events Have Reduced Our U.S. Hydropower Forecast By 6% This Year

More from CleanTechnica: "Weather events in the U.S. Northwest this past spring and summer led to lower water supply, prompting us to reduce our forecast of U.S. hydropower generation by 6% this year compared with last year. About one-half of the country's hydropower is generated in the Northwest. Precipitation that accumulated in the Northwest over last fall and winter provided the region with a plentiful water supply outlook for the summer months, with near- to above-average levels by the beginning of April. However, above-normal temperatures in May in the Northwest melted snow rapidly, resulting in a significant loss of water supply, measured as Snow Water Equivalent in higher elevations. With less water available, the region generated 24% less hydropower in the first half of this year than during the same period in 2022. This year, we expect 19% less hydropower generation in the Northwest than in 2022."

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- D.J. Kayser