Sunny But Hazy Skies For Friday

As Canadian wildfire smoke continued to sink south on Thursday, air quality became better throughout the day here in the Twin Cities. This is after spending 11 hours in the Very Unhealthy range (purple in the chart above), reaching an AQI of 261 at 7 PM.

The overall average AQI for the day was 180 according to AirNow, which according to the MPCA would break the previous record of 130 for the Twin Cities.

Poor air quality remained across southern Minnesota on Thursday, however, and an Air Quality Alert remains in place through 6 AM Friday:

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...THE MINNESOTA POLLUTION CONTROL AGENCY HAS ISSUED AN AIR

QUALITY ALERT FOR FINE PARTICLE POLLUTION. THE AIR QUALITY

INDEX (AQI) IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ORANGE OR UNHEALTHY FOR

SENSITIVE GROUPS CATEGORY.

* WHERE...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

* WHEN...THROUGH 6 AM CDT FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE GROUPS, SUCH AS PEOPLE WITH LUNG DISEASE

(INCLUDING ASTHMA), HEART DISEASE, AND CHILDREN AND OLDER

ADULTS, MAY EXPERIENCE HEALTH EFFECTS.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL

CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TODAY. AIR QUALITY HAS IMPROVED INTO

THE YELLOW (MODERATE) CATEGORY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA,

AND THE AIR QUALITY ALERT IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE TWIN

CITIES METRO. THE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL

MINNESOTA UNTIL FRIDAY AT 6 A.M. AIR QUALITY WILL BE IN THE

ORANGE (USG) CATOGERY IN THIS AREA, BUT SMOKE LEVELS WILL

GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SENSITIVE GROUPS, SUCH AS PEOPLE WITH LUNG DISEASE (INCLUDING

ASTHMA), HEART DISEASE, AND CHILDREN AND OLDER ADULTS, SHOULD

LIMIT PROLONGED OR HEAVY EXERTION.

REDUCE OR ELIMINATE ACTIVITIES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO AIR POLLUTION,

SUCH AS OUTDOOR BURNING, AND USE OF RESIDENTIAL WOOD BURNING

DEVICES. REDUCE VEHICLE TRIPS AND VEHICLE IDLING AS MUCH AS

POSSIBLE.

_______________________________________________

With the latest Drought Monitor update, issued on Thursday, we can see drought continues to expand across central and southern Minnesota. In this update, Severe Drought (D2/4) was introduced across portions of central Minnesota from the Albany and St. Cloud areas to Hinckley (pretty much right along Highway 23). D2 Drought covers 2.14% of Minnesota. The lower categories also expanded:

We actually did see some slight improvement in southwestern Minnesota this week, with some areas being taken out of the Abnormally Dry category. Otherwise, we did see the conditions worsen week-to-week across central, northern, and far southeastern Minnesota.

This is why we are seeing drought expand across the region. Only 0.26" of rain has fallen at MSP Airport since May 15 - the lowest amount of precipitation during this time period on record. St. Cloud is also sitting at the #1 driest since May 15th with 0.31" (second being 0.49" in 1964).

Looking statewide, many areas of eastern and central Minnesota are running over at least 2-3.5" below average rainfall-wise over the past month.

Meanwhile, the MNDNR added six watersheds to "Drought Watch" today, adding to four others that were already in that position. The six added are:

The four that we previously on the list:

You can read the MNDNR Press Release on this "Drought Watch" by clicking here.

_______________________________________________

The good news is that we are losing that near-surface smoke as we head into the last day of the work week. However, I do think we'll continue to see some hazy skies as that smoke remains aloft in the atmosphere. Morning temperatures drop into the mid-50s with highs climbing to the low 80s.

Most areas will see hazy sunny skies (maybe with a few clouds) across the state on Friday, but air quality should be a lot better across the region. A few later day showers will be possible up toward the Red River Valley. Highs will range from the 60s along parts of the North Shore to the 80s in southern and western Minnesota.

This is the forecast for the smoke aloft as we head into the mid-morning hours on Friday. Again, it should mostly be aloft, with not as much of a concern about visibility or air quality. It'll more just give the atmosphere a bit of a hazy look to it across the state during the day.

_______________________________________________

Saturday: Highs will be slightly warmer than Friday in the mid to upper 80s. We will watch the chance of some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state as we head into the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these storms could produce some heavier rain - but not everyone will see that heavier rainfall. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected.

Sunday: Cloudier skies are expected with additional scattered showers and storms across the region. Highs will be in the mid-80s.

The heaviest rain through the weekend will be in western Minnesota, where there could be up to an inch or so (with higher totals depending on where the heaviest downpours occur). As we head farther east, toward the metro, rainfall tallies will decrease with potentially (only) up to around a quarter inch. Not enough to really dent the drought, but at least it's something.

_______________________________________________

Less Smoke and Heat - Weekend Thunder Chance
By Paul Douglas

"Paul, will we be dealing with thick smoke all summer long?" That's the right question. The answer is shrouded in smoggy uncertainty. It depends on a myriad of factors. Will storms over Canada return, with more rain than lightning? Or will "dry thunderstorms" trigger lightning that ignites more blazes? Will weary fire fighters be able to knock down the biggest blazes? The answer is unknowable. Chaos theory. All we can do is hope for a pattern shift, which may be a tall order with El Nino kicking in, keeping the biggest storms south of Minnesota.

According to the Twin Cities National Weather Service the metro has seen .26" of rain since May 15, the least on record for that period. We should be picking up an inch of water a week for optimal plant growth.

Models are more optimistic about scattered showers and T-storms Saturday and Sunday (best chance PM hours). Expect highs in the 80s with a few sunny breaks.

Enjoy a spell of less smoke and cooler temperatures. I see a streak of 90-degree days next week.

_______________________________________________

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Partly sunny, less smoke. Wake up 56. High 81. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

SATURDAY: Some sun, few pop-up T-storms. Wake up 63. High 87. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY: Unsettled, passing shower or T-storm. Wake up 65. High 83. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 7-12 mph.

MONDAY: Hot sunshine. Wake up 67. High 90. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: Hazy sun, partly sweaty. Wake up 68. High 92. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Murky sun, sticky. Wake up 70. High 91. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

THURSDAY: A few more clouds, still steamy. Wake up 71. High 90. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

_______________________________________________

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 15th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 35 minutes, and 35 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 28 seconds

*Most Sunlight In A Day: June 21st (15 hours, 36 minutes, 51 seconds)
*Earliest Sunrises Of The Year: June 13th-17th (5:25 AM)
*Earliest Sunsets Of The Year: June 21st-July 2nd (9:03 PM)
_______________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
June 15th

1989: Scattered frost develops across Minnesota, with the coldest reading of 29 at Isabella.

_______________________________________________

On Friday, the frontal boundary responsible for heavy rain in the Southeast will still be in place, leading to more showers and storms. We're also watching systems producing showers and storms in the Pacific Northwest, from the Great Basin to the Plains, and in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Some snow could mix in during the overnight and early morning hours in the Rockies. Meanwhile, the heat continues across parts of the Southern Plains, with 100s across Texas.

Heavy rain continues to fall across portions of the Southeastern United States through the first half of the weekend, with an additional 3-5"+ for some that could produce flash flooding. Scattered areas of heavier rain (possibly 2"+) will be possible across the Plains and in the Northeast as well.

Meanwhile, we are watching a wave coming off of Africa that has a low chance of formation as it moves westward through the weekend into next week. We'll be keeping an eye on this one just to be safe!

_______________________________________________

Dangerous fire weather conditions becoming more common across U.S.

More from Axios: "Fire weather days — featuring a volatile mix of low humidity, strong winds and high temperatures — have increased in number across much of the Lower 48 states during the past 50 years, a new analysis shows. The big picture: An analysis from Climate Central, a nonprofit climate science research organization, found that wildfire seasons are getting longer and more intense, especially in the West. Many parts of the East have also seen increases in fire weather days, the report finds. Why it matters: The trend in fire weather days demonstrates how climate change is altering risk levels at the local and regional levels, with much of the phenomenon tied to human-caused climate change, per Climate Central."

An Unlikely Foe Is Slowing the Fight Against Wildfire Pollution

More from Heatmap: "Wildfire smoke is making air pollution in the United States a lot worse, as anyone in New York City last week can attest. Yet the regulatory tools that have done so much to reduce emissions from cars and smokestacks may actually be getting in the way of effectively managing forests in order to prevent massive, out of control fires. The increasing importance of wildfire smoke, and the structural policy changes required to fight it — from overhauling forestry practices to worldwide reductions in greenhouse gas emissions — may require a rethinking of how public policy is supposed to protect people from pollution. Catalytic converters in cars have visibly cleared the air even in the most traffic-jammed cities; getting rid of lead in gasoline has made children smarter; efforts to fight acid rain were so successful that the paucity of it is now seen as a reason to ignore current environmental problems. But all these efforts were aimed at limiting emissions from particular sources, like factories and vehicles, not fires that consume tens of thousands of acres across a mixture of federally managed and privately held land."

A once-shuttered California mine is trying to transform the rare earth industry

More from Grist: "In arid southeastern California, just across the border from Nevada, sits the only large-scale rare earth element mine in the Western Hemisphere. Here at Mountain Pass, rocks are dug out of a 400-foot pit in the ground, crushed, and liquified into a concentrated soup of metals that are essential for the magnets inside consumer electronics, wind turbines, and electric vehicles, or EVs. Today, that metallic soup is shipped to China, where individual rare earths are separated before being refined into metals and forged into magnets. But MP Materials, the company that took ownership of the 70 year-old Mountain Pass mine in 2017, hopes to change that. This quarter, MP Materials plans to begin separating rare earths at Mountain Pass — the first time this key processing step will have occurred in the United States since 2015."

_______________________________________________

Follow me on:

Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser