Sunny & Warm Start To The Week - Northern Lights Possible Monday Night?

Cuyuna Country State Recreation Area on Saturday, September 16th, 2023. Photo credit: D.J. Kayser

I just returned from a trip at Cuyuna Country State Recreation Area (paddleboarding, not joining everyone else who was mountain biking). There was some color with some of the trees, but definitely still a lot of green. Cuyuna Country State Recreation Area reported 10-25% color on Friday. As we drive back southward, I would definitely say there was some more color within Mille Lacs Kathio than in Cuyuna.

Meanwhile, there are five areas from the Minnesota DNR that are reporting 25-50% color as of their recent updates (within the past 3-5 days) - at the state parks of Hayes Lake, Big Stone Lake, Old Mill, and Lake Bronson as well as at the Iron Range Off-Highway Vehicle State Recreation Area. There is certainly a chunk of color that is also due to tree stress with the drought we've seen this summer out there.

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The sun sent off a Coronal Mass Ejection toward Earth on Saturday, which looks to impact the Earth's atmosphere as we head into Monday Night local time. That would cause another burst of northern lights across the region - if we are cloud-free (more on that in a second). The current NOAA forecast has the best chance of the aurora being forced south enough to cover most of Minnesota during the 10 PM Monday-1 AM Tuesday timeframe (3-6 UTC in the graphic immediately above) - however, the aurora could continue through the rest of the night. Of course, since I mentioned it I now jinxed it and it won't occur (I see you, Facebook aurora groups)!

Forecast cloud loop: 7 PM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday.

While there will be cloud-free areas of Minnesota - especially early on in the night - those clouds will be on the increase through the overnight hours closer to the metro. There is even a very slight chance of a shower or storm. Something to watch as we head through the next couple of days!

Not much to complain about on Monday with quiet, sunny weather and enough of a breeze to keep any bugs off you. Morning temperatures will once again be in the "open windows" phase of the season with lows in the upper 40s and low 50s (even a very slight touch of a wind chill!) before highs climb into the mid-70s.

Not a weather concern state-wide on Monday, besides the ongoing drought conditions. Sunny to mainly sunny skies are expected, with highs ranging from the 50s in the Arrowhead (particularly along the North Shore) to the 80s in parts of western Minnesota.

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Temperatures will be on the incline as we head through the middle of the week, with 80s expected to return at least on Wednesday - but there will also be the chance on surrounding days as well. We remain quiet (besides that aforementioned rain chance Monday Night or early Tuesday morning) with mainly sunny skies through Wednesday.

Forecast six-hour precipitaiton loop from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM next Monday.

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Risk Of An Extended Summer This Year
By Paul Douglas

Yes, it IS fashionable and appropriate to wear a sweatshirt over shorts. You have the freedom to make questionable clothing choices. I hope you like your autumns lukewarm, because a hot summer may bleed deep into a mild into fall.

On paper, in theory, fall begins this upcoming Saturday. The sun is as high in the sky as it was the last week of March. Longer nights translate into cooler temperatures, thus the need for a light jacket in the weeks ahead. But longer range models that blur the line between weather and climate show a warm bias into mid October, possibly the entire winter, as the effects of a Super El Nino kick in. I'd bet a large amount of (your) money that the upcoming winter will be milder. Then again your results may vary.

You'll be shocked to hear that dry weather prevails into Friday with a warming trend. The European model has the metro area at or above 80 from Wednesday through Tuesday of next week, with T-storms Saturday.

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny and warmer. Wake up 51. High 77. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, very nice. Wake up 59. High 79. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Hello August! Sunny and warm. Wake up 60. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Sticky sun, few T-storms far north. Wake up 62. High 86. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Lukewarm with a few T-storms. Wake up 66. High 80. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SE 15-25 mph.

SUNDAY: More sun, a stray T-storm? Wake up 64. High 81. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind E 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 18th

*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 23 minutes, and 16 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 6 seconds

This Day in Weather History
September 18th

1997: An F3 tornado destroys several buildings and damages numerous others. Hundreds of trees are knocked down. A number of cattle are also killed in a collapsed barn. One man is injured when the tornado engulfs his car and throws it into a nearby woods. A second man is critically injured when his garage collapses, then dies several weeks later. The total path length of the tornado from 1 NE of Lastrup to Onamia is 17 miles. Total property damage is estimated at $1.7 million. In total, 6 tornadoes touch down in Morrison, Mille Lacs, and Kanabec.

1991: Duluth gets 2.5 inches of snow five days before the beginning of Fall.

1971: A brush fire at Lake Alexander in Morrison County spawns a 10-foot wide, 50-foot high 'fire whirl.' It moved out over the lake, overturned a 1,800 pound pontoon boat, and then dissipated as it moved back to shore.

1903: 3.75 inches of rain falls in the Minneapolis area.

On Monday, a frontal boundary near the East Coast down to the Gulf Coast - and a second one ahead of that across southern Florida and southern Texas - will bring these areas the potential of showers and thunderstorms. Some showers are also possible in the Pacific Northwest.

The heaviest rain through the first part of the week will be in the Eastern United States, with the potential of 1-3" for some locations. Areas of the Northeast have saturated soils from heavy rain the past few weeks, so we may have to watch the potential for some areas of flash flooding.

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NEW STUDY UNVEILS SHARP UPTICK IN EXCESS DEATHS FROM HURRICANES: 'IT'S A PROBLEM THAT'S NOT GOING TO GO AWAY'

More from The Cool Down: "Hurricanes and tropical storms have long been bringers of death and destruction. However, a new study focusing on the deaths has shown that as the planet overheats, these storms have become deadlier — and people of color in the United States are dying at a disproportionate rate. The study published in Science Advances showed that around 20,000 excess deaths — the actual number of observed deaths as opposed to expected deaths — happened in the aftermath of the 179 hurricanes and named storms that made landfall in the U.S. from 1988-2019, as reported by the Guardian. Unfortunately, 17 of the 20 deadliest storms have occurred in the last 15 years, accounting for over two-thirds of the excess deaths."

More from The 19th: "Pregnant people exposed to extreme heat are at higher risk of developing life-threatening complications during labor and delivery, according to new research published in the Journal of the American Medical Association on Thursday. The research adds to a growing body of evidence showing the impact extreme heat has on a pregnancy, while also making a distinction between long-term exposure and events like heat waves. "I think this [distinction] is really important," said Ashley Ward, director of the Heat Policy Innovation Hub at Duke University who was not involved in the study. "Most of the research around pregnant women has centered on acute events like a heat wave … but honestly, what we are all experiencing this summer is an excellent example of really what I would consider chronic heat exposure.""

Rivers rapidly warming, losing oxygen; aquatic life may be at risk, study finds

More from Penn State: "Rivers are warming and losing oxygen faster than oceans, according to a Penn State-led study published today (Sept. 14) in the journal Nature Climate Change. The study shows that of nearly 800 rivers, warming occurred in 87% and oxygen loss occurred in 70%. The study also projects that within the next 70 years, river systems, especially in the American South, are likely to experience periods with such low levels of oxygen that the rivers could "induce acute death" for certain species of fish and threaten aquatic diversity at large. "This is a wake-up call," said Li Li, Penn State's Isett Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and corresponding author on the paper. "We know that a warming climate has led to warming and oxygen loss in oceans, but did not expect this to happen in flowing, shallow rivers. This is the first study to take a comprehensive look at temperature change and deoxygenation rates in rivers — and what we found has significant implications for water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems worldwide.""

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- D.J. Kayser