The national weather outlook for Thanksgiving day Thursday shows more active weather across the Southern US. Areas of showers and storms will be likely, some of which near Houston, TX could be strong to severe. There will also be areas of heavy rainfall in the Southern US through the end of the week.

The weather outlook for Thanksgiving Day Thursday looks fairly quiet with the potential of a few flurries/sprinkles in the morning. Much of the day should be dry with cloudier skies and temps in the mid 30s. Note that parts of Central Minnesota could see a brief period of patchy freezing drizzle through the early AM hours.

The 850mb temp anomaly through the week ahead shows warmer than average temperatures in place through much of the week ahead with. It'll feel MUCH warmer than it did last week. The warmest weather arrives this weekend, where temps could warm into the 40s.

Last week was VERY cold with temps running well below average. Looking at the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the end of the month, it appears that we'll be closer to average if not slightly above average at times. We even have a chance at warming into the 40s on Saturday!

Weather conditions close to home remain very quiet through the long holiday weekend with above average temperatures. However, next week could be a little more active as a potential storm system moves through the Upper Midwest. Stay tuned...

Here's the weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, November 23rd. It'll be a little chilly in the morning with temps in the lower 20s, but we should have no problem getting above the freezing mark with highs approaching 40F by the afternoon.

After a cold and somewhat snowy week last week, a number of locations around the region are still reporting snow on the ground. As of Tuesday, there was 2" of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities with 6" on the ground in International Falls.

Temps across the region on Wednesday will be at or slightly above average across much of the region. Some of the warmest temps will be found south of Minnesota and into South Dakota, where little to no snow is on the ground.

Temps on Wednesday will start off quite chilly in the low 20s, but will warm to near 40F in the afternoon, which will be slightly above average for this time of the year. much of the day dry and sunny with a few clouds passing overhead. South to southeasterly winds will generally be light much of the day as well.

It has been a very dry Fall so far with precipitation running more than -4.69" below average (since September 1st). The September 1st - November 21st time period was the 6th driest on record.

The Twin Cities is nearly 9.54" below average for the year, which is the 19th driest start to any year on record (through November 21st). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.67" above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.

It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.

The extended precipitation outlook through Tuesday, November 29th shows very little precipitation close to home, which is good news as we get through the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend.

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows readings closer to average as we head through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Temps will warm into the mid/upper 30s and lower 40s, which will be much warmer than it was last week.

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows fairly quiet weather in place through the Thanksgiving holiday. Temperatures will warm into the 30s and 40s, which will be at and slightly above average for this time of the year.

Here's the ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the end of the month. Readings will certainly be warmer than they were last week with the potential of highs reaching the 40s!

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps hanging on across Southern and Eastern US with cooler than average temps returning to the Western half of the nation and the Midwest.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the northern tier of the nation.

Good news and bad news. Good: daytime highs at or above 40F into early next week. No major weather-related travel woes shaping up. I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express! Bad: no sizable storms are on the horizon. Barring a meteorological miracle, extreme drought will spill into 2023.

Minnesotans are experiencing less lake - more lakeshore. According to the Lake Minnetonka Association 'Tonka lake levels are 20" below the normal high water level, dropping 1/2" per week. The drop in lake water levels since 2020 is similar to 1987-89. Take heart: Lake Minnetonka water levels were nearly 6 feet lower in late 1937, during the Dust Bowl. Lovely. The metro needs 8 1/2" of precipitation in the next 90 days to remove drought classification. Not. Going. To. Happen.

A mild ridge of high pressure treats us to quiet, relatively mild weather into the weekend. Saturday highs may approach 50F.

A cold rain next Tuesday may end as light snow Wednesday, but right now it doesn't look like a big accumulation-maker. For now, winter is on hold.

WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Winds: SE SE 5-10. High: 42.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds clouds. Winds: SE 5. Low: 33.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, stray sprinkle. Winds: W 7-12. High: 40.

FRIDAY: Sunnier and milder. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 25. High: 45.

SATURDAY: Blue sky. Mild for late November. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 32. High: 49.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and cooler. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 25. High: 40.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, still quiet. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 25. High: 38.

TUESDAY: Rain arrives. Wet snow western MN? Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 30. High: 37.

November 23rd

2003: New London and Little Falls both receive 9 inches of new snow.

1983: Heavy snowfall accumulates over most of central Minnesota with snowfall totals from 4 inches to almost 1 foot. Minneapolis received 11.4 inches of snow, while Farmington had 11 inches.

1954: Very strong winds over Minnesota lead to considerable damage in downtown Wadena.

November 23rd

Average High: 38F (Record: 55F set in 1905)

Average Low: 24F (Record: -6F set in 1898)

Record Rainfall: 0.89" set in 1983

Record Snowfall: 11.4" set in 1983

November 23rd

Sunrise: 7:21am

Sunset: 4:37pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 16 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 00 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hour & 20 minutes

0.3 Days After New Moon

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows cooler than average temps lingering across the Plains and the Intermountain-West. Meanwhile, folks in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States will be a little warmer than average.

The weather outlook for Wednesday shows thunderstorms developing across the Lower Mississippi Valley with locally heavy rainfall. Another batch of wintry weather will move through the High Plains

The weather outlook through Thursday shows widespread showers and storms across the Southern US, where locally heavy rainfall will be possible. There will also be a little wintry precipitation across the Plains on Wednesday.

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook brings heavier precipitation potential across the Gulf Coast States and into the Eastern US. There will also be another heavier batch of precipitation across the Western US, but the Upper Midwest looks fairly dry (for now).

According to the ECMWF (European model), areas of heavy snowfall will be found in the Western US, especially across the Cascade Range. There could also be some snow in the Midwest next week, but it's entirely too early to tell what may unfold. Stay tuned...

"A pair of researchers at Fudan University's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, working with one colleague from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and another from the University of California San Diego, has found that weak tropical cyclones, also known as tropical storms, are growing stronger due to climate change. In their paper published in the journal Nature, the group describes their study of data from thousands of surface drifters over a 29-year period. Robert Korty, with Texas A&M University has published a News & Views piece in the same journal issue outlining the ways in which ocean storms are measured and the work done by the team on this new effort."

See more from Phys.org HERE:

"Every year, millions of people are forced to leave their homes due to a variety of climate or natural disasters, ranging from floods – one-third of Pakistan was inundated last summer – to droughts and topical storms. The term "climate refugee" has entered the environmental lexicon and the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) has said there could be 1.2 billion such refugees by 2050 as the planet turns into a frying pan. The number is a guess, but perhaps not a wild one. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees says that an annual average of 21.5 million people have been displaced by extreme weather events since 2008, though it's an open question whether global warming specifically can take the blame."

See more from The Globe & Mail HERE:

"A historic winter storm pummeling western New York is not only bringing the prospects of multiple feet of snow to the Buffalo area, but the storms are powerful enough to add in a rare display of thundersnow. Drone video by Live Storm Media's Brandon Clement captured the surreal nighttime scenes over the Buffalo skyline Thursday night, showing a mix of intense snow squalls blowing in off Lake Erie along with the occasional flash of lightning. Thundersnow is the same as a regular thunderstorm, only getting the nickname when accompanying snowfall. Its lightning is just as dangerous."

See more from Fox Weather HERE: