Support in metro areas helped Sanders, Rubio win in Minnesota

Among the Republican establishment in Washington desperate to defeat Donald Trump, one thought must come to mind after Trump's string of victories on Super Tuesday: If only the rest of America were more like Minnesota.

The state's suburban, college-educated Republicans handed Florida Sen. Marco Rubio his first and, so far, only victory in his pursuit of the GOP nomination for president.

"Hopefully, we'll show we have some more thoughtful voters," Dianne Robinson, a Burnsville Republican, said on caucus night, fearing the rise of Trump. She declined to say whom she supports.

For Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, Minnesota's DFL caucuses were tailor-made for his insurgent, progressive campaign and the state became one of four states Sanders captured Tuesday as his opponent Hillary Clinton won seven and locked down 594 delegates to take a sizable jump toward the 2,383 needed for the Democratic nomination.

Minnesotans broke with much of the rest of the nation on Super Tuesday, as voters in the 10 other states that awarded delegates mostly favored Clinton, Trump or GOP Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Minnesota was the only state where Trump finished third. And Minnesota gave Sanders his biggest win outside of his home state. That has some Minnesotans marveling at the state's quirky voters, who once elected a professional wrestler to be the governor.

The results highlighted the ability of Rubio and Sanders to cater to the state's demographic and political profile, and the independent streak of its voters.

Sanders soundly defeated Clinton in the metro area, winning 62 percent of DFL voters compared to the former secretary of state's 37 percent, according to a Star Tribune analysis.

Sanders also picked up a commanding 70 percent of DFL votes in Rochester, Duluth and St. Cloud, and 63 percent outstate. Clinton couldn't break 30 percent in those smaller cities, and topped out at over 36 percent outstate.

When Sanders won a district, his average margin was 28 percent. In the districts that Clinton won, her average margin was 7 percent.

Clinton also lost the state in 2008, when Minnesota Democrats overwhelmingly backed Barack Obama.

Support for Clinton statewide was slightly better than in the 2008 caucuses, but she lost support in 27 out of 48 counties where comparable data was available — including seven counties that she won in 2008 but lost this time to Sanders. The counties that she won this year — all in outstate Minnesota — she also carried in 2008. In the metro area, her support mostly held steady again at about 35 percent.

Rubio's campaign has launched an effort to tap into suburban Republicans in early voting states, drawing enthusiastic supporters who propelled him to some strong second-place finishes and kept him in the nomination fight.

On caucus day, Rubio made a last-minute visit to Andover, a suburban community north of Minneapolis. Rubio kept up the attack on Trump, painting the billionaire real estate mogul as someone whom traditional Republicans should fear.

Rubio has done well elsewhere with college-educated Republican suburbanites whose priority is picking someone who can win in November. Rubio won those voters handily Tuesday, according to exit polls.

That type of voter makes up an important bloc among the Minnesota GOP and was pushed to the polls by a flurry of establishment voices like former Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Sen. Norm Coleman, who worry that Trump's nomination will lead to a landslide defeat in November. Local GOP operatives, fearing the effect of a Trump candidacy on downballot November races, were also working on Rubio's behalf.

Rubio crushed his opponents — including Trump — in the metro area and around other major cities like St. Cloud, Rochester and Duluth.

Voters in Rubio strongholds "had a much more intellectual view on it, as opposed to, 'I'm just pissed and this is the outside guy,' " said Mike Wolbrink, an Eagan business owner who backed Rubio at his caucus.

In the metro region, 41 percent of Republicans went for Rubio, while 28 percent supported Cruz and just 19 percent backed Trump. In St. Cloud, Rochester and Duluth — areas also rich with college-educated voters — Rubio won 39 percent, while Trump and Cruz tied with 23 percent.

Rubio won 17 delegates to the national convention, while Cruz won 13 and Trump eight. A record number of Republicans, about 115,000, turned out, according to the state party.

On the other side, more than 200,000 DFLers showed up for their caucuses, and Sanders walked away with 47 delegates, with Clinton winning 30. The DFL also has 16 superdelegates, party leaders and elected officials who are mostly backing Clinton.

Sanders has performed best in liberal-leaning and less racially diverse states, which accurately describes areas where his support was strongest in Minnesota.

DFL Gov. Mark Dayton, who has endorsed Clinton, said Wednesday he was not surprised by Sanders' strong showing. "We have a strongly progressive activist core, and that's one of the strengths of our party," he said.

Keith Downey, chairman of the Republican Party of Minnesota, who was neutral in the GOP race, acknowledged Rubio's strength among metro voters and said he also piled up big vote totals on college campuses. But he also credited Rubio's victory to sheer shoe leather: "He built a good team here early, he kept building it, and he showed up at the end. A lot of this is hard work," he said.

By contrast, Trump's organization came together late, and the candidate never made an appearance here.

In the case of both Rubio and Sanders, their strengths have not been able to offset weaknesses among other voter groups. Rubio has failed to win over non-college-educated voters, for instance, while Sanders has struggled with black voters.

So while both relished their Minnesota victories, they face tough odds of winning their parties' nominations.

Star Tribune reporters Maya Rao

and Shannon Prather contributed

to this report.

J. Patrick Coolican • 651-925-5042

MaryJo Webster • 612-673-1789