The annual cat-and-mouse game

Retailers blew away sales expectations for November, posting a nearly 6 percent gain for the month, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC).

The long Thanksgiving weekend provided some momentum. Retailers starting promotions earlier, opened their doors on Thanksgiving Day and gave people online-only deals. Recall that Target had a four-day pre-Thanksgiving sale, promoted Turkey Day doorbusters on its web site and opened stores an hour earlier than last year on Black Friday. Analysts I spoke with Thursday cautioned that it's a long way to Christmas, and consumers are a tough bunch to predict, especially in this economy. It's always a game of who's going to blink first. The ICSC's surveys show that consumers are further behind on their shopping than last year. Probably waiting for deals. Meanwhile, retailers want to entice them to spend without having to cut too deeply into profits. Sherif Mityas, a retail partner at A.T. Kearney in Chicago, suspects that retailers will hold the line – at least for now. "There will still be good promotions in December, but I don't think desperation needs to set in because inventories are so tight," he said. So, we'll see which side has the upper hand. During the recession, even 70 percent discounts didn't convince some folks to buy. As the months and years wore on, consumers became more willing to buy, but wouldn't budge without a deep discount on the price tag. Retailers may be saving their best deals for last. But analysts suspect they'll be patient and try their darndest not to cut into those profit margins. Let me know whether you're waiting to pounce on deal or want to get the gift list checked off sooner rather than later.