The best-case and worst-case scenarios for Timberwolves in second half

At 7-29 at the break, the Wolves have the worst record in the NBA. From here, there is a volatile range of possibilities set to unfold over the next few months.

March 11, 2021 at 4:56PM
(The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Some teams are more predictable than others in this market.

The Wild in the latter half of the last decade could be counted on to be good enough to earn a low playoff seed but not good enough to do much damage once they reached the postseason.

The Vikings with Kirk Cousins at QB seem to have an established floor and ceiling that hovers around .500, plus or minus a game or two.

The Timberwolves ... well, the pessimist (and perhaps the realist) would say they are predictable as well. Whatever you think might happen at the start of the season, there will inevitably be a downward adjustment and a season that doesn't work out as hoped.

That said, this year's Wolves — even though they are 7-29 at the break — seem to have a high level of volatility going into the second half of the season. While it might be smart to imagine things won't work out based on their history, I sense that there is a pretty significant gap between their best-case scenario and worst-case scenario for how things go in the final 36 games.

Chris Hine and I talked about this during part of Thursday's Daily Delivery podcast, but I want to expand on those thoughts a bit.

If you don't see the podcast player, click here to listen.

Here are five different pieces of the puzzle and how they could play out in a best- and worst-case scenario for the Wolves:

Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell on the court together

Best-case: Russell returns relatively soon from his knee injury and both players (and to a lesser extent Malik Beasley once he's back from suspension) are able to stay on the court together for the final 25-30 games of the season. In that time, we see that Gersson Rosas' vision of pairing the two makes sense and that there is a real 1-2 punch around which to build for the future.

Worst-case: The Towns/Russell pairing either doesn't take off like the Wolves hoped or one/both of them miss a lot more time and we don't get to see what they can do — delaying at least until next season any notion of progress on that front, if it happens at all.

Anthony Edwards' final 36 games of his rookie season

Best-case: Edwards shows tangible progress. We shouldn't expect most 19-year-old rookies to come in and dominate immediately, but seeing Edwards make strides in consistency and efficiency would calm down a lot of folks who are worried that for as gifted as he looks, there are holes in his game that might be hard to overcome.

Worst-case: Edwards doesn't grow — he remains a player with flashes of potential and some productive games but overall an inefficient scorer who isn't learning how to play to his strengths. There would still be time for him to figure things out, but not taking a step forward as he finishes his rookie year would be a downer for the organization.

The Chris Finch coaching era

Best-case: Finch is able to implement new ideas, new strategies and new rotations in a way that blends development and winning, providing optimism that with a full offseason there can be even more progress made.

Worst-case: Finch struggles to transform whatever potential exists on this roster into a cohesive, winning style. Players continue to make the same mistakes, and those errors lead to losses that keep piling up.

The trade deadline

Best-case: Rosas is able to make one or two effective trades — not necessarily blockbusters, but a guy can dream — that provide immediate help and instill a renewed sense of optimism for a roster that has deficiencies.

Worst-case: Rosas isn't able to make any meaningful trades — or worse yet, he makes a panic deal that ends up weakening the roster.

That pesky draft pick

Best-case: The Wolves win enough — maybe, say, double their first-half win total and go 14-22 (with a close to .500 record when Towns/Russell play together) — to feel better about themselves and their future, but they still wind up keeping their 2021 draft pick. It's a deep draft, and adding a top-3 player from that class would be another injection of immediate talent. As a reminder: It's a top-3 protected pick, but even if the Wolves finish with one of the three worst records (a pace they are very much on right now) there is a 60% chance Golden State will get the pick.

Worst-case: The Wolves keep losing at a healthy clip AND they lose the pick to Golden State anyway, making the Andrew Wiggins/Russell trade look particularly lopsided. They don't get another talented, potentially transformative young player in the draft.

Overall

Best-case: The Wolves make tangible strides forward, demonstrating a roster and style that has promise and will only get better with more time and a top-three pick. A shot at making the playoffs next year becomes a real goal, with loftier aspirations coming into view in two years. All of that energizes Towns and keeps him happy in Minnesota.

Worst-case: The Wolves continue to look as helpless as they did in the first half, and matters are only made worse when they lose their draft pick. There is no realistic path to meaningful improvement anytime soon. As a result we start to hear rumblings that Towns would like to start over with a new franchise, touching off yet another rebuild.

about the writer

about the writer

Michael Rand

Columnist / Reporter

Michael Rand is the Star Tribune's Digital Sports Senior Writer and host/creator of the Daily Delivery podcast. In 25 years covering Minnesota sports at the Star Tribune, he has seen just about everything (except, of course, a Vikings Super Bowl).

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