The Blizzard That Saved a White Christmas

Lessons from Wednesday's Mega-Blizzard

Merry (white) Christmas! I'm still recovering from Wednesday's 65 mph wind-machine. Snow totals were less than what I predicted, but winds were stronger with more ice.

After every storm I do a post mortem. What did I miss, what can I do better? In truth, I got too caught up in weather models, which all agreed, but overstated snow amounts by a factor of two. It's easy to get lazy and rely too heavily on models, which are only a guide, not Gospel. Our blizzard was a reminder to focus on dynamics and basics. Our biggest snowstorms come from the south, loaded with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Ironically one such (southern) storm may be brewing for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, and amounts could be significant. Too early for anything more than that.

20F will feel pretty good today with 1-2 inches of snow on Sunday. Long range guidance hints at a January thaw, but subfreezing temperatures through late December means perfect powder. Good times for snow lovers.

PS: we've already picked up 1 minute of daylight!

Snowfall Totals. Plowable or crippling? Depends on who you ask but if you were stuck in a ditch for a few hours late Wednesday you'd probably agree that it was a crippling storm. By the way: the (loose) definition of a crippling storm is when everything shuts down. I would say Wednesday's windblown storm qualifies by that measure. Snowfall was at the lower end of the range we were predicting but both ice and wind were more severe than expected. Click here for a list of snowfall totals.

Christmas Blizzard Pummels Minnesota, Closing Roads, Stranding Drivers. Star Tribune reports, here's an excerpt: "...Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport received 8.7 inches Wednesday, which was a record for the date. Other totals included Chanhassen with 8 inches, Fridley with 7, Red Wing with 6 and Lakeville with 5. Minneapolis and St. Paul declared snow emergencies. Nearly 300 flights at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP) were canceled, with dozens delayed. Metro Transit reported numerous bus delays. Poor visibility and slick roads contributed to driving havoc, from a multivehicle pileup that closed Interstate 94 near Albertville and Monticello to hundreds of crashes with dozens of injuries statewide. Whiteout conditions closed Interstate 90 between the South Dakota border and just east of Blue Earth..."

A Minnesota White-Out. WCCO-TV has more details on Wednesday's raging snow and wind machine: "...According to meteorologist Riley O'Connor, in the metro area, Minneapolis received about 8.7 inches of now, with Maple Grove seeing 9 inches. In the west metro, Spring Park reported about 10 inches. Other areas, like Cambridge and Anoka, saw about 9 inches. Right across the border, a WCCO Weather Watcher in Hudson, Wisconsin reported 11 inches of snow. Blizzard conditions Wednesday resulted in numerous crashes and spin-outs on the roads. According to the Minnesota State Patrol, there were 59 crashes, 153 vehicle spinouts and eight jackknifed semis statewide between 9 p.m. Wednesday and 6 a.m. Thursday..."

Light Snow Sunday - Heavier Snow Possible by Tuesday. Next week's forecast is still blurry, but there is a fairly good chance of accumulating snow starting up sometime Tuesday, spilling into Wednesday. Timing, amounts, impacts - way too soon for conjecture.

Slightly Milder (and Stormier) Into Early January. Remember the sweet spot, temperature-wise, for significant snow is highs in the 20s. 30s and you often wind up with a changeover to ice or rain. Colder than 15F for daytime highs usually implies the main storm track is too far south. I do see some 30s in early January as Pacific air returns, but the pattern may favor a series of Pacific storms pushing across the U.S. - a few of them may be strong enough to push southern moisture into Minnesota.

Tracking Santa. He had a long night but you may still be able to track where he is now, thanks to NORAD and CNN.com: "NORAD is focusing its formidable tracking systems on Santa Claus and his reindeer as they make their annual flight delivering presents to children around the world. The North American Aerospace Defense Command, which is responsible for protecting the skies over the US and Canada, has activated its official Santa Tracker. You can follow his sleigh on the NORAD Tracks Santa website and there are apps available for iOS and Android devices. This is the Santa Trackers 65th anniversary..."

8" snow on the ground at MSP.

7 F. high in he Twin Cities on Christmas Eve.

25 F. average high on December 24.

37 F. high on December 24, 2019.

December 25, 1999: Strong winds resulted in a one hundred thirty foot radio tower to collapse in Milaca. No wind measurements were available in the city of Milaca. However, Princeton airport (Mille Lacs county), had a gust to 45 mph at 10:35 pm CST. St. Cloud airport (Stearns County), had a gust to 44 mph at 8:52 pm CST. Mora (Kanabec county) had a gust to 55 mph at 9:35 pm CST, and a gust to 47 mph at 10:35 pm CST.

December 25, 1996: A strong low pressure system which deposited heavy snow over much of Minnesota on the 23rd, pulled extremely cold Canadian air southward over Minnesota. The cold remained entrenched through the 26th. Temperatures fell to 15 to 35 degrees below zero Christmas Day morning. The Twin Cities and St. Cloud set new record low temperatures both days. In addition, the high temperature on Christmas Day in the Twin Cities was only 9 degrees below zero. Combined with the record low temperature that morning of 22 below, the mean temperature for Christmas Day was 16 degrees below zero. This Christmas Day set a new record for being the coldest day on record for the Twin Cities metro area, going back to the year 1890 when modern day records began.

December 25, 1922: People are golfing on Christmas in the Twin Cities as temperatures reach the 50s.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Sunny, light breeze. Winds: SW 8-13. High: near 20

SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, milder. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 14. High: 27

SUNDAY: Light snow, inch or two? Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 18. High: 25

MONDAY: Bright sunshine, brisk. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 2. High: 11

TUESDAY: Cloudy, PM show develops. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 0. High: 22

WEDNESDAY: Snow may be heavy. Stay tuned. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 20. High: 22

THURSDAY: Colder, windblown flurries. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 20. High: 22