The future is electric — which is to say, still mostly on four wheels

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In 2018, the city of Minneapolis adopted its long-range plan, the Minneapolis 2040 Plan. The plan assumed 75% growth over the next 20 years. Based on this plan, in 2020, the city adopted the Transportation Action Plan. The core was a 60% reduction in auto travel by 2030, with a presumption that by then, 25% of trips would be taken by walking, bicycling would triple and transit ridership would double. The city is now rebuilding its roads as if this is going to come true.

How is it going?

• Population growth: The population of Minneapolis declined, from 430,710 in 2020 to 425,115 in 2023, about 1.2%. This is most likely because of the declining birthrate. It takes 2.1 babies per woman to have a stable population, and the U.S. is at 1.66.

• Auto travel: Vehicle miles traveled, or VMT, in Minneapolis declined 3% from 2016 to 2020 and another 11% from 2019 to 2023. This decline happened mostly from 2019 to 2020, rebounded from 2020 to 2021, then remained stable. This change is most likely due to a tripling of people working from home and a tripling of the time people spent at home.

• Transit: Regional transit ridership peaked in 2015 and declined 9% from 2015 to 2019. This is most likely because Uber and Lyft debuted in 2014. Transit ridership has fallen about another 40% from 2019 to midyear 2024, for a net decline of about 50% since 2015.

• Walking/bicycling: In the Twin Cities, walking trips declined 47% from 2019 to 2022. Nationally, biking increased 37% from 2019 to 2021, then flatlined in 2022. The Twin Cities ranked 30th in per capita biking in 2019 and 33rd in 2022 despite making heavy investments in bike amenities. Given that biking is such a small percentage of travel, even an increase of 37% would not impact VMT in a meaningful way.

• Carbon emissions: There isn’t a measure of carbon emissions, but it is obvious to the naked eye that carbon emissions are up dramatically. Cars are now idling due to roadway changes where just a few years ago there was free-flowing traffic.

It is clear the “everyone should walk, bike and take transit” strategy is failing.

There is a better option — electric vehicles. The U.K. Government Department for Energy Security shows that electric vehicles produce 47 grams of carbon dioxide-equivalents per passenger kilometer on average. Heavy diesel buses produce 97 grams on average and gas automobiles produce 170.

I appreciate this is a very different solution to our climate challenge. But what we are doing now is failing badly. Instead of doubling down with even more bike lanes and buses, we need a better solution, one that everyone in the Twin Cities can adopt. And that is electric vehicles.

This means a massive increase in charging stations and expanding parking because that means space for charging stations. This means ending the war on cars and reversing changes that increase carbon emissions and energy costs like Hennepin Avenue, Lake Street and others. This means keeping, not eliminating, Interstate 94 to reduce congestion and the energy cost of getting around the region. It means examining every roadway change from today’s carbon emissions, not a fantasy world unsupported by data, and removing bike and bus lanes that are bad for the environment.

Metro Transit even gets it. Eight percent of its funds in its 2027 plan will be for an Uber-like service instead of buses or trains.

Will transportation planners change, given the overwhelming data? Probably not. There is a huge activist-industrial complex promoting biking and transit in Minneapolis and none promoting electric vehicles. And planners seem to have bought into the idea that they can make fantasy worlds where everyone bikes and walks real.

Perhaps it is time for a new revolution.

The future is electric.

Carol Becker, of Minneapolis, is a college professor and data analyst. For 16 years she was a member of the Minneapolis Board of Estimate and Taxation.