The high stakes of Ukraine's counteroffensive

Opinion editor's note: Editorials represent the opinions of the Star Tribune Editorial Board, which operates independently from the newsroom.

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Ukraine's long-vaunted counteroffensive appears to have begun with incursions in the east and south of Russian-occupied territory. The campaign's progress will likely be incremental. In terms of territory and time, it'll be measured in individual villages and cities over months, not weeks.

While the movement may be small-scale, the stakes are monumental — for Ukraine's existential fight and the free world's hopes for a rules-based international order that's not at the whim of authoritarian geopolitical ambitions. No doubt, the relative success of the counteroffensive is consequential to the West in general and America in particular.

"It's been a very long time since the world accepted this idea that countries can just take over other nations," Jon Olson, who teaches a class on statecraft and the tools of national power at Carleton College, told an editorial writer. Olson, a retired U.S. Navy commander, noted that even though Ukraine is not a NATO nation, the alliance "made the decision that defending a fellow democratic country, Ukraine, is worth the scratch."

The U.S. and President Joe Biden have been at the forefront of rallying allies to Ukraine's defense, providing political, economic and materiel support — but not troops — based on the assumption that if Russian President Vladimir Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, his imperial ambitions may turn to other former Soviet republics, including the Baltic countries. So while the over $37 billion investment isn't inconsequential, it's an investment in America's national security benefit, too, lest this country find itself at war with another nuclear-armed nation.

Biden pledges that the U.S. will continue contributing to Ukraine's defense for "as long as it takes." That's the correct stance, and one boosted by the top Senate Republican, Mitch McConnell, who on Monday admirably said on the Senate floor that "Public reports indicate that the armed forces of Ukraine have begun their long-planned counteroffensive in earnest.

"Having blunted Putin's unprovoked escalation last year, Ukraine is aiming to drive Russian forces back and out of occupied Ukrainian territory on multiple fronts. Reaching this point in the conflict is of course due in large measure to the heroism of the brave Ukrainians defending their homeland. But their success is also a credit to the tangible support of the United States, NATO allies, and friends around the globe who value the same sovereignty and territorial integrity under attack in Ukraine."

Among these lethal attacks are continuous, indiscriminate rocket strikes from Russia, including on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's hometown of Kryvyi Rih, which killed at least 11 and wounded at least two dozen civilians on Monday in just the latest war crime. Add to the list of offenses the June 6 destruction of the Kakhovka dam, which was under Russian control, that directly killed several Ukrainians and could indirectly kill others worldwide due to its impact on Ukrainian grain, much of which goes to food-insecure nations.

For months, Russian troops, anticipating the counteroffensive, have dug in, so Ukrainian troops are likely to suffer setbacks. But that shouldn't set back Western support, particularly from Washington and especially from some congressional Republicans who don't have the clarity of McConnell, let alone Biden, on what's at stake.

Some of these same voices and others may also call for Kyiv to conclude a peace deal that rewards Russian revanchism. "There's a lot of discussion about what are the terms that we're going to dictate to Ukraine as far as a peace deal," Olson said. "Well, that's not up to us, and thankfully the United States government has not been saying, 'This is where we stand on what the peace agreement should be.' We and our NATO allies are leaving it up to the Ukrainians to make a decision about what they will find acceptable in the way of a peace agreement."

Not pressing Ukraine to capitulate isn't militarism. If anything, a successful counteroffensive would curb not only Russia but similar ambitions in Beijing, Pyongyang, Tehran and elsewhere.

Just last week, about the same time the counteroffensive was beginning, many of the same allies backing Ukraine marked the 79th anniversary of D-Day. While Ukraine's quest to retake its territory — and its future — isn't on the same scale or scope, the principle is similar. Every Minnesotan, American and defender of democracy worldwide should hope the outcome eventually is, too.