The Twins could lose a lot soon, but it might not matter in AL Central

The 2022 Twins spent the first one-third of their season in a confusing, choose-your-own-reality experience.

Expectations after last year's 73-89 finish were diminished, and anyone who subscribed to the "more of the same" theory was entitled to smug satisfaction after their 4-8 start this year.

The 23-8 burst that followed turned that narrative sideways, but the non-believers could still say, "Yeah, but look at their schedule." Going 3-7 in their next 10 games, all against lightweights Kansas City and Detroit, further muddied the landscape.

Is the segment of Twins fandom that thinks the naysayers are too negative correct? Or is this Twins team mediocre and destined to settle into that fate?

A stretch of nine difficult games against the Jays, Yankees and Rays, which began Friday in Toronto, could give us some clarity.

But it might not be the clarity either side wants.

Rather, it might reinforce this: Both views are correct. The Twins might not be all that great. But with history as a guidepost, we very well could find out as the season plays out that greatness doesn't matter when it comes to being competitive in the American League Central — something La Velle E. Neal III and I talked about on Friday's Daily Delivery podcast.

Simply put: The winning formula in almost every successful Twins season in the last two decades has been to dominate within the division and be a little above average against everyone else.

That's not meant to cheapen what the Twins have accomplished, with eight AL Central titles, one Game 163 loss and one wild card berth accounting for half of their last 20 seasons. But it is an acknowledgment that playing in the AL Central has been and continues to be this season a great benefit.

It started in 2002, when the Twins made the postseason for the first time since 1991. They won two of every three games against AL Central foes and were barely above .500 against the rest of MLB.

In charting every successful year from that point forward, a pattern emerged. (Note: The 2020 season wasn't included because while the Twins certainly benefited from playing only AL Central and NL Central teams in the 60-game COVID-altered season, there were no other games to use for comparison).

Year Record vs. AL Central Record vs. non-AL Central

2002 50-25 (.667) 44-42 (.512)

2003 43-33 (.566) 47-39 (.547)

2004 46-30 (.605) 46-40 (.535)

2006 41-35 (.539) 55-31 (.640)

2008 43-30 (.589) 45-45 (.500)

2009 46-27 (.630) 41-49 (.456)

2010 47-25 (.653) 47-43 (.522)

2017 41-35 (.539) 44-42 (.512)

2019 50-26 (.667) 51-35 (.593)

2022 17-10 (.630) 13-13 (.500)

Total 424-276 (.606) 433-379 (.533)

Overall, including this year through Sunday, the Twins have played at a 98-win pace against AL Central teams during successful seasons and an 86-win pace against everyone else.

This season, even after their recent stumbles against Detroit and Kansas City, the Twins would be on pace to win 102 games if they were only facing division teams. Entering Friday at Toronto, they are .500 against everyone else.

With the AL Central looking as weak as ever, and the Twins still leading by 4.5 games even after their recent slide because no other team is even above .500, they could emerge from this tough stretch of games battered but hardly broken.

They will have almost half — 49 of 100 — of their remaining games against division opponents after this run is done.

One final note, though: They better get their shots in while they can. Next year the schedule format changes and the Twins will have just 56 games (14 vs. each team) against AL Central opponents instead of the 72 to 76 they have enjoyed in every full year of the last two decades.