To say the Wolves have arrived at a 40-40 record in unconventional fashion is a bit of an understatement. They are 24-22 against teams .500 or better — the second-best mark in the Western Conference. But because they are 16-18 against teams with losing records — third-worst among West teams — they sit just ninth in the conference with two critical games remaining this weekend.
Timberwolves and Wild postseason: What are minimum expectations for them to meet?
It's basically a coin flip that the Wolves will make the playoffs and that the Wild will win a playoff series. But those are also minimum expectations for framing this as a successful season in both cases.
April 7, 2023 at 4:10PM
The same could be said of the Wild (44-24-10), who used a post-break 16-1-4 burst to put themselves in Western Conference contention but have otherwise been fairly ordinary this year (28 wins and 29 combined regulation and OT/shootout losses in all other games).
What happens in the final handful of regular-season games will have a huge impact on what I've settled on as revised minimum expectations for a successful season for both teams.
For the Wolves, they need to make the playoffs — not just the play-in — in a year derailed by Karl-Anthony Towns' 52-game injury absence. For the Wild, they need to win a playoff series after getting close each of the last two seasons.
If we look at probabilities, both of those objectives are basically coin flips at this point. Let's examine:
*The Wolves are currently ninth in the Western Conference, a precarious position that would require them — if that's where the finished — to win two play-in games just to advance to the playoffs.
But they also control their destiny to a degree. If they win their final two games — Saturday at lowly San Antonio and Sunday against New Orleans — they will finish no worse than eighth because they will bypass at least the Pelicans.
That's easier said than done. Though San Antonio is just 21-59 this season, the Spurs are 2-1 against the Wolves. And Minnesota is an embarrassing 4-7 against the four worst teams in the NBA, including the Spurs.
If that 4-7 record was reversed, the Wolves would be in fifth place in the West. But there's no undoing the past. Getting into the top-eight and having two cracks at the play-in would give the Wolves a pretty good chance of making the playoffs. While barely getting in wasn't the goal after the Rudy Gobert trade, it's a minimum expectation now.
*The Wild have already clinched a playoff spot. But three losses in a row after that hot stretch have put their seed in jeopardy. The most likely finish is No. 3 in the Central Division, but they can still rise up and grab home ice in the first round.
Regardless, this is a team — assuming it gets a healthy Kirill Kaprizov back — built to win in the playoffs. After coming close to winning a series each of the last two years, they need to take a step beyond just competing this year.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.
