Timberwolves and Wild postseason: What are minimum expectations for them to meet?

It's basically a coin flip that the Wolves will make the playoffs and that the Wild will win a playoff series. But those are also minimum expectations for framing this as a successful season in both cases.

April 7, 2023 at 4:10PM
Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) drives to the basket past Brooklyn Nets center Nic Claxton during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Tuesday, April 4, 2023, in New York. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
It’s been a ragged season for the Wolves, but they can salvage progress this weekend. (AP/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

To say the Wolves have arrived at a 40-40 record in unconventional fashion is a bit of an understatement. They are 24-22 against teams .500 or better — the second-best mark in the Western Conference. But because they are 16-18 against teams with losing records — third-worst among West teams — they sit just ninth in the conference with two critical games remaining this weekend.

The same could be said of the Wild (44-24-10), who used a post-break 16-1-4 burst to put themselves in Western Conference contention but have otherwise been fairly ordinary this year (28 wins and 29 combined regulation and OT/shootout losses in all other games).

What happens in the final handful of regular-season games will have a huge impact on what I've settled on as revised minimum expectations for a successful season for both teams.

For the Wolves, they need to make the playoffs — not just the play-in — in a year derailed by Karl-Anthony Towns' 52-game injury absence. For the Wild, they need to win a playoff series after getting close each of the last two seasons.

If we look at probabilities, both of those objectives are basically coin flips at this point. Let's examine:

*The Wolves are currently ninth in the Western Conference, a precarious position that would require them — if that's where the finished — to win two play-in games just to advance to the playoffs.

But they also control their destiny to a degree. If they win their final two games — Saturday at lowly San Antonio and Sunday against New Orleans — they will finish no worse than eighth because they will bypass at least the Pelicans.

That's easier said than done. Though San Antonio is just 21-59 this season, the Spurs are 2-1 against the Wolves. And Minnesota is an embarrassing 4-7 against the four worst teams in the NBA, including the Spurs.

If that 4-7 record was reversed, the Wolves would be in fifth place in the West. But there's no undoing the past. Getting into the top-eight and having two cracks at the play-in would give the Wolves a pretty good chance of making the playoffs. While barely getting in wasn't the goal after the Rudy Gobert trade, it's a minimum expectation now.

*The Wild have already clinched a playoff spot. But three losses in a row after that hot stretch have put their seed in jeopardy. The most likely finish is No. 3 in the Central Division, but they can still rise up and grab home ice in the first round.

Regardless, this is a team — assuming it gets a healthy Kirill Kaprizov back — built to win in the playoffs. After coming close to winning a series each of the last two years, they need to take a step beyond just competing this year.

about the writer

about the writer

Michael Rand

Columnist / Reporter

Michael Rand is the Star Tribune's Digital Sports Senior Writer and host/creator of the Daily Delivery podcast. In 25 years covering Minnesota sports at the Star Tribune, he has seen just about everything (except, of course, a Vikings Super Bowl).

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