To succeed, reformers must foresee the paths to failure

"Nothing changes."

So say my students. And honestly, the complaint haunts me.

My reflexive response is to catalog big changes that have occurred.

Back in the 1970s, intrepid progressive and conservative community organizers in California recoiled at new property taxes, propelling an unexpected political movement that shaped American policy debates for half a century.

Very recent legislation passed by Democrats and President Joe Biden is on track to slash childhood poverty in half.

In between, Obamacare survived serial attacks and now is on its way to extending health coverage to 30 million Americans who, without it, had once suffered or died prematurely.

My students nod patiently at such reminders. Then they throw back at me a list of devastating and deadly problems that remain — climate change, police abuse, glaring gaps in the education of Black and white children. Immediate, structural change "must happen now" they say.

Students cry, "No justice, no peace." The slogan rings out from protesters of police violence, of accelerating climate change and of mandated vaccination.

I reply: James Madison and his posse of Constitution writers deliberately booby-trapped the process of making government decisions in America to blunt large, quick change.

At this point, I deliver a countdown of poli-sci Golden Oldies:

1. Checks and balances decimate "big plans" by feeding them into the buzz saw of fractious legislators and impale them on the veto pens of governors or presidents, if they make it that far. No shortage of opportunities to slow or stop policy change.

Exhibits from across the ideological spectrum:

2. Divide and conquer. The dastardly Madison counted on complex divisions among Americans to stymie reformers' plans to assemble majorities intent on big, bold change — such as seizing large plantations in the late 18th century or nationalizing banks.

Exhibit: Public safety reformers in Minneapolis targeted police abuse but were opposed by Black voters on the North Sside, who stood to gain most from genuine public safety.

Madison smiles.

3. Madison's hidden agenda was to secure the landed gentry's power to guide the country with what he considered their superior virtues and wisdom.

Exhibit: Privilege in the 21st century advantages the business community and large, private media organizations.

I reply: Wrong conclusion. The barriers to change should be the starting point for advocates. Their challenge is to tailor strategy to neutralize or circumvent known barriers. Failure to anticipate barriers is a failure of leadership.

"Policy is politics" is an axiom of former Rep. Vin Weber, R-Minn. The path to political success is through policy, and vice versa. But impassioned advocates — on the left and the right — are remarkably disinterested in designing policy to fit circumstances and this handicaps them.

Exhibit: Trump's insistence on repealing Obamacare was a huge "missed opportunity," according to conservative health policy sage Jim Capretta at the American Enterprise Institute. Republican congressional majorities whiffed on the rare chance to redirect Obamacare toward markets and personal responsibility.

Similarly, public safety advocates fought to pass a phantom policy. Voters had no clue what they were actually being asked to vote for, which equipped opponents to paint it as a "Trojan horse" for defunding the police.

Students say: Are you blaming the victims for an inert political system?

Students: That sounds like professor talk for "nothing gets done." Immediate, structural change is the only appropriate response to the existential threats of climate change, economic inequality, racial disparities and soaring budget deficits.

Me: Here are down-to-earth lessons from generations of community organizers and strategists on the left and right.

First, search for allies to build a coalition of well-organized groups that stretches beyond purists. The push for deep police reform in Minneapolis would be stronger if it linked adversaries JaNaé Bates of Yes 4 Minneapolis and North Side leader Sondra Samuels as allies.

Next, focus on the future when designing policy today. Nearly 50 million Americans are eligible for Medicare's widening set of health care benefits — a lifeline to seniors who would otherwise be tragically suffering. But this only exists because shrewd reformers abandoned their failing efforts to pass National Health Insurance in the 1930s and 1940s. They adopted a more modest immediate goal and get the ball rolling toward NHI.

Reformers narrowed their aims far short of their ideal (inviting scorn from opponents hip to their deception) and smartly planned on future expansions by "putting a foot in the door."

Me: You want to see an effective attack on racism? Let's talk Social Security.

Franklin Roosevelt faced an awful choice in 1935: fail to pass Social Security or agree to the demands of southern white supremacists in Congress. FDR caved and 65% of Black agricultural and domestic workers were left out.

Reformers counted on time. Over the following decades, Social Security quietly calculated who was eligible and for how much, based on years of employment and pay. The calculations were conducted equally and without regard to race. The white supremacists never protested; the seemingly technical jargon escaped their notice — by design.

The outcome, over time, has been that Black Americans were smoothly incorporated into Social Security and received more than whites for each dollar paid in payroll taxes. Half of poor elderly Blacks have been lifted out of poverty.

Change is possible but only if the possibility of defeat is anticipated and understood. Many of the big shifts in policy in America only occurred after reformers studied failure and designed policy to circumvent it.