Trump endorsements test former president's Minnesota influence

Former President Donald Trump stamped his endorsement on GOP gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen overnight Tuesday, an imprimatur the candidate said he didn't seek and that others say could be a hindrance in wooing middle-of-the-road voters.

Trump also gave his "complete and total" endorsement to Republican Secretary of State candidate Kim Crockett, who, like Jensen, issued a statement saying the support came as a surprise she did not pursue. The former president issued both endorsements in a post on Truth Social. Jensen, Trump wrote, will "bring Minnesota back from the brink."

Yvonne Simon, chair of the Blue Earth County Republicans, said she was "delighted" by the endorsements. "I think any help that Republicans get in running their campaigns is a good thing right now," she said.

A Trump spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment about the former president's timing. Earlier in the year in other states, Trump sought to play kingmaker in statewide GOP primary contests, but not here.

His foray into the two statewide Minnesota contests comes about two weeks before the general election, which has a different dynamic than the intraparty primaries.

State DFL Chair Ken Martin emphatically rebuked the Trump endorsement in a statement, saying it was a reward for Jensen's comments questioning election integrity and his call for jailing Minnesota's DFL Secretary of State Steve Simon over his management of the state's election system.

"Donald Trump has rewarded him with an endorsement," Martin said. "Fortunately, voters who don't want their governor to jail their political enemies and spread dangerous lies about our elections can prevent that from happening in Minnesota by re-electing Tim Walz."

Minnesota Republicans haven't won a statewide office race since 2006. Trump himself lost Minnesota in both presidential contests: He fell to Hillary Clinton by 1.5 percentage points in 2016 and to Joe Biden by 7.1 percentage points in 2020.

Political strategist and former GOP state Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch said Trump's narrow loss to Clinton in 2016 put Minnesota on his political radar. She said he campaigned in Minnesota late in that race and believes he could have ended the GOP drought here with a more significant in-person effort.

Now as Trump prepares for another possible presidential run in 2024, Koch said he looked at the tightening Minnesota races and decided to weigh in. If Jensen or Crockett wins, Trump can claim credit for getting them over the top, she said.

"I don't know that it substantially helps," Koch said of the endorsements. "I don't know that it substantially hurts, but I'll tell you what, anytime the former president does anything, it gets a lot of attention."

Still, Koch said she doesn't expect Jensen's campaign to tout the support. She does, however, expect the Walz campaign to tie Jensen to Trump at every opportunity.

Two prominent Minnesota political scientists said the timing of the endorsement has little upside for the Republican candidates. Had Trump endorsed earlier, the former president could have come for a fundraiser and helped Jensen raise cash, said Steven Schier, an author and retired Carleton College political science professor.

The focus at this stage of the campaign, however, is on attracting swing voters, the ones in the middle who aren't devoted Republicans or Democrats.

GOP voters who like Trump had already planned to vote for Jensen, said Schier and Kathryn Pearson, an associate professor at the University of Minnesota's Hubert H. Humphrey School.

Pearson said the candidates now are "trying to persuade independent voters to turn out … for them. And Trump is not very popular with independent voters."

Pearson agreed with Schier that a Trump appearance at a fundraiser would have been a boost for Jensen, but said, "Political scientists find that for the most part in general elections, endorsements don't really sway voters. To the extent that it will have any effect, it will link Jensen and Crockett and Trump."

Trump struggled to win over Minnesota Republicans during his 2016 primary run. He finished third in the state's GOP caucus that year on his way to becoming the party's nominee.

And, of course, he didn't carry the state in the general election.

"That indicates that it's an uphill battle for statewide Republicans," Winona County Republican Party Chair David Baer said, pointing to the 2016 and 2020 general election results in the state. "If Trump had taken Minnesota, then it would maybe indicate that he has more pull."

Trump has not yet endorsed the two other Republican statewide nominees: Jim Schultz in the attorney general's race and Ryan Wilson in the auditor's contest.

Some in Minnesota were puzzled by the timing of Trump's decision this week, but as Schier said, "Anybody who tried to bet by predicting Trump's behavior lost money."