Tuesday: Foggy Start With Mainly Sunny Skies - 90s Return This Weekend

Some much-needed rainfall fell across the region Sunday into Monday, with a band of at least one inch of rain across portions of central Minnesota, including in the metro. The heaviest rainfall totals appear to have fallen just northwest of the metro, with reports of 4.70" near Kimball, 4.23" in Annandale, and 4.10" near Clearwater.

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As you head out Tuesday morning, expect some fog around - potentially dense in some areas - due to the moisture we've seen the past couple of days. Otherwise, a mainly sunny day is expected with morning lows in the mid-50s and highs around average in the low 80s.

Mainly sunny skies are expected across the state on Tuesday, after potentially a foggy start in portions of central and southern Minnesota due to the rain the past couple of days. The warmest highs will be up around the Red River Valley, where we could see highs approach 90F. 70s and 80s are expected across the rest of the state.

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So after the cool start to the week that we saw, highs climb back to the low 80s Tuesday and will approach 90F on Wednesday. That will be ahead of a cold front that could bring some strong storms in later in the day and into the overnight hours. Behind that front, Thursday highs will only reach the upper 70s again before launching into the 90s for the weekend. After the rain chance Wednesday and Wednesday Night, mostly dry weather returns through the weekend.

As mentioned, a few storms could be strong to severe Wednesday into Wednesday Night as the cold front approaches and moves through. A Slight Risk of severe weather (threat level 2/5) is in place across eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin, including the Twin Cities, St. Cloud, and Duluth. I would expect hail and wind to be the primary threats.

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Mid To Upper 90s Early Next Week?
By Paul Douglas

Minnesotans pride themselves on our quality of life, but does it extend to a livable climate? A Montana state court just decided in favor of young people who alleged the state violated their right to a "clean and healthful environment" by promoting the use of fossil fuels.

Earth just had its hottest July in 174 years, according to NOAA. The hottest 8 Julys have all occurred in the last 8 years, since 2016. We just saw the 4th consecutive month of record-warm global ocean temperatures and Antarctic sea ice coverage reached a record low in July for the 3rd consecutive month. A myriad of factors have accelerated warming in 2023, which will almost certainly be the warmest year ever recorded, worldwide.

We go from late September 60s yesterday to mid-July 90s this weekend, in fact ECMWF and NOAA models hint at upper 90s close to home early next week. Enjoy low 80s today with low humidity. I see a thunder risk late Wednesday and flashes of sauna-like heat as we prepare to hit the Minnesota State Fair. I knew it!

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

TUESDAY: Warm sunshine. Wake up 56. High 82. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Hot sun, late-day T-storm possible. Wake up 64. High 90. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Plenty of sun, cooler breeze. Wake up 63. High 80. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny, heating up. Wake up 60. High 88. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Sizzling sunshine. Wake up 70. High 95. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Hot, steamy, isolated T-storm. Wake up 72. High 94. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

MONDAY: Tropical sunshine, feels like 100+. Wake up 74. High 96. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
August 15th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 4 minutes, and 53 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 46 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 14 Hours Of Sunlight? August 17th (13 hours, 59 minutes, 17 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises After 6:30 AM? August 28th (6:30 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 8:00 PM? August 27th (7:59 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
August 15th

1936: St. Paul swelters with a high of 108.

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Excessive heat concerns continue for another day in the Northwestern and Southern United States on Tuesday. Otherwise, a frontal boundary from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast will produce showers and thunderstorms. Monsoonal storms will also be possible in the Southwest.

Several areas from the Mississippi River eastward could see at least 1-4" of rain from Monday through the middle of the week. In some of these areas, this rain could fall heavily at one time and cause flash flooding.

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Judge rules in favor of young Montana plaintiffs in landmark climate trial

More from CNN: "A Montana judge handed a significant victory on Monday to more than a dozen young plaintiffs in the nation's first constitutional climate trial, as extreme weather becomes more deadly and scientists warn the climate crisis is eroding our environment and natural resources. In a case that could have legal reverberations for other climate litigation, District Court Judge Kathy Seeley ruled that Montana's continued development of fossil fuels violates a clause in its state constitution that guarantees its citizens the right to a "clean and healthful environment." Montana is one of several states that have explicit guarantees written into their state constitutions. While Seeley's ruling won't prevent mining or burning fossil fuels in the state, it will reverse a recently passed state law that prohibits state agencies from considering planet-warming pollution when permitting fossil fuel projects."

Hawaii utility faces scrutiny for not cutting power to reduce fire risks

More from the Washington Post: "Four days before fast-moving brush fires engulfed parts of Maui, weather forecasters warned authorities that powerful wind gusts would trigger dangerous fire conditions across much of the island and Hawaii. The state's electric utility responded with some preemptive steps but did not use what is widely regarded as the most aggressive but effective safety measure: shutting down the power. Hawaiian Electric, the utility that oversees Maui Electric and provides service to 95 percent of the state's residents, did not deploy what's known as a "public power shutoff plan," which involves intentionally cutting off electricity to areas where big wind events could spark fires. A number of states, including California, have increasingly adopted this safety strategy after what were then the nation's most destructive and deadliest modern fires, in 2017 and 2018."

Record shattering: Earth had its hottest July in 174 years

More from NOAA: "Earth just roasted under its hottest July on record, according to scientists from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). For the fourth-consecutive month, the global ocean surface temperature also hit a record high. ... The average global surface temperature in July was 2.02 degrees F (1.12 degrees C) above average, ranking it as the warmest July in NOAA's 174-year record. Because July is the globe's warmest month of the year from a climatological perspective, July 2023 was also likely Earth's warmest month on record. July 2023 was the first time an average July temperature exceeded 1.8 degrees F (1.0 degree C) above the long-term average. Also of note, last month was 0.36 of a degree F (0.20 of a degree C) warmer than the previous July record from 2021. July 2023 marked the 47th-consecutive July and the 533rd-consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average."

Record hot ocean temps could turbocharge the hurricane season, says NOAA

More from CNBC: "Record hot ocean temperatures could turbocharge this hurricane season, according to scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA scientists increased the chance that this year will be an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% on Thursday. In May, NOAA predicted a "near-normal" hurricane season with 30% likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast revision decreased the likelihood of near-normal activity to 25% from 40% chance announced in May. The revised outlook covers the remainder of the six-month hurricane season, which begins on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30, and forecasts a season total of 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater. Of those, six to 11 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater, and between two and five could become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater. The revised estimates published Thursday include the five named storms and one hurricane that have already happened, according to NOAA."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser