Twin Cities families are on the move elsewhere, so greater Minnesota had better get recruiting

Minnesota may be losing residents to nearby states, but communities outside the metro area are gaining people from migration. Researchers are urging those cities and towns to work together to keep people migrating in.

A new report from the St. Peter-based Center for Rural Policy and Development highlights how migration has become the No. 1 driver of population growth in Minnesota for the past few years, even as the Twin Cities metro area and the state as a whole are losing residents.

“We don’t draw in more people than we have people leaving,” said Kelly Asche, a researcher for the center. “But .. if we only look at it from a state perspective, we’re overlooking a lot of nuance that might be important.”

For decades, births largely determined population growth, while people appeared to leave the largely rural areas for the Twin Cities and other urban destinations.

Those trends have changed since the 2010s, as growth centers such as Duluth, Rochester, St. Cloud, Mankato, and any community with a strong manufacturing hub attracted younger families and families of color for jobs.

Yet the Baby Boomer generation will start to turn 80 next year, prompting warnings from state demographers about an expected rise in the number of deaths in Minnesota’s future.

Births won’t offset those losses because Minnesota’s birth rate continues to decline. Though Minnesota’s population still grows annually, it’s largely through new international arrivals.

Mostly rural counties continue to lose residents, but larger metropolitan areas like Hennepin and Ramsey counties are expected to lose population too. It’s the counties with a mix of urban, suburban and rural interests that are poised to grow over the next few decades, according to state demographic projections.

Some of the bigger population centers outside the core metro will continue growing — Rochester is expected to add thousands of people by 2030 as part of Mayo Clinic’s $5 billion downtown expansion — but smaller communities are set to grow too.

State demographic data shows counties along I-94 and I-35 are projected to grow over the next few decades, as well as central Minnesota counties that have recreational resources to draw middle-aged workers and retirees alike.

“They just see really high in-migration and a lot of that has to do with quality of life,” Asche said. “You have 30- to 49-year-olds moving there, obviously, because of the slower pace of life.”

Mostly rural counties will continue to lose population, the state projects.

Some places are taking the initiative. Otter Tail County hired a rural recruiter in 2017 whose sole focus is attracting families. Rochester, through Destination Medical Center, has spent years attracting bio-businesses to the downtown area to work with Mayo Clinic researchers. Other communities are using data compiled by University of Minnesota researcher Ben Winchester to attract more educated workers.

At least one place is going the old-fashioned route. Mankato has launched a billboard and online campaign targeting the Twin Cities and nearby communities. The billboards target people in traffic jams, with the message that their drive time is Mankatoans' family time.

Mankato leaders have also started a community initiative to grow the region, with resident recruitment one of its goals.

“In many ways this is our golden ticket to the future,” said Andy Wilke, vice president of Greater Mankato Growth.

Experts are encouraging more border communities to invest in similar strategies so they don’t lose people to nearby states, all of whom are competing for residents to bolster their workforces. Asche points to South Dakota’s recent ad campaign across southern Minnesota, encouraging people to move across the border.

Minnesota clearly is a draw for a diverse group of people, according to Eric Guthrie, a senior demographer at the Minnesota State Demographic Center. The issue is capitalizing on what Minnesota does well to keep them here.

“There are only three things that can change the population: Births, deaths and migration,” Guthrie said. “You’re not going to decrease the likelihood that people are going to die. Same thing for the birth rate. Recognizing that migration is vital to your area is going to be necessary to make the thriving Minnesota we all want.”