The 2020 Twins won 60% of their games despite several players having subpar offensive seasons. Why? The team benefited from a top-five pitching staff.
So far, Derek Falvey and his pitching staff have failed the Twins
By Star Tribune and
La Velle E. Neal III
May 20, 2021 at 12:57PM
There are many reasons why this year's Twins team has earned the worst record in the American League. At the top is a pitching staff that entered Wednesday with a 4.91 ERA that is 27th in baseball.
A good pitching staff can cover up deficiencies in other areas. A bad pitching staff has nowhere to hide.
It comes down to how the Twins built and managed this disaster on the mound. Entering Wednesday, opponents' hard-hit percentage of 45.4% is the highest in baseball. Opponents' exit velocity of 90.3 miles per hour is tied for the highest.
That is not pitch to contact. That is pitch to explosion.
Derek Falvey, Twins president of baseball operations, joined the Twins from Cleveland, where he was lauded for his pitching evaluation and development strategies.
It remains to be seen if Twins prospects such as Blayne Enlow, Matt Canterino and Josh Winder will thrive and contribute to Falvey's reputation. We don't need to wait any longer to say this: The arms assembled on this major league staff have faltered.
Matt Shoemaker (2-5, 6.08 ERA) and J.A. Happ (2-2, 5.35) have no room for error. Kenta Maeda's slider neutralized lefties last season, and he finished second in Cy Young Award voting. This season, Maeda (2-2, 5.26) is getting hit and pitching coach Wes Johnson hasn't found a solution. Jose Berrios (3-2, 3.74) has yet to take the next step in his development. Big Mike Pineda (2-2, 2.79) has been the most consistent starter but just landed on the 10-day injured list.
When the team needs to go looking for a fresh arm to start, Lewis Thorpe and Randy Dobnak are the next men up. Prospects Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic come next, and they are just getting started in the minors after dealing with injuries.
So young Bailey Ober, an intriguing righthander but not a top prospect, was needed to start Tuesday. There's not a lot of starting depth, and that will make for a long summer.
Johnson deserves credit for helping reliever Alexander Colome. After speaking with him on April 28, Colome has posted six consecutive scoreless outings. Before that, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli blew a couple of games giving Colome chances to redeem himself instead of going with another option.
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Johnson now needs to figure out how to get Hansel Robles to throw more strikes, how to get Tyler Duffey to pitch like he did last season, how to stop Taylor Rogers from running hot then cold and how to harness Jorge Alcala's fantastic arm. Twins relievers have allowed inherited runners to score 69% of the time, which would be the worst mark in baseball since 1920. A historically bad bullpen.
Another big problem for this staff: Lefties are hitting .297 against the Twins with an on base-plus-slugging percentage of .937. That's All-Star-level production against an entire staff. Even lefthander Caleb Thielbar has seen lefties bat .429 against him.
It's unlikely that the Twins can address all these deficiencies in a timely manner. Pitching might be a problem all season. If so, Falvey & Co. will face a decision: keep trusting their data, or change their approach?
It's not just about spending more money. Good pitching can be traded for or developed as much as it can be bought, and the decisions by Falvey have not worked out.
The pitching plan this season, from roster constructing to coaching to management, has produced one of the worst staffs in baseball. And opponents are fighting at the bat rack to get at them.
The eight Twins headed for arbitration are Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, Bailey Ober, Ryan Jeffers, Willi Castro, Griffin Jax and Trevor Larnach.
