Twins starter Kenta Maeda bracing for long recovery after upcoming surgery

When Kenta Maeda goes to Dallas for surgery on Wednesday, he is expecting to undergo Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery, which could put the 33-year-old out until 2023, when he would take a major league mound again at the age of 35.

As Twins manager Rocco Baldelli emphasized Friday, there are other options for the kind of surgery Maeda may need — nobody will know for sure until Texas Rangers orthopedic surgeon Keith Meister actually performs the procedure — but the Japanese righthander is expecting the worst-case scenario.

"I am expecting Tommy John, although I was also told that the doctor won't know until he sees the actual ligament," Maeda said Saturday through an interpreter. "Depending on the ligament condition, there may be a surgery, a procedure that allows me to come back in a short rehab time. So if that were to be the case, I'll be lucky, but I'm prepared to go full-on rehab for the upcoming season."

There was some question over whether Maeda, 33, would opt for Tommy John surgery or try to seek some other method of rehabilitation for his right elbow considering his age and contract status.

"There was certainly an option to go with the no-surgery route. If that were to be the case, it would be similar to what I've been doing this season," he said. "Just be on some medication and just rest well and wait for the elbow to feel better and then just pitch through it.

Maeda has a team-friendly contract, signed with the Dodgers in 2016, with a $3 million base salary every year through 2023. He has pitched through arm difficulties since arriving in the major leagues, though he has been able to reach sizable bonuses — up to $10 million — by hitting a certain number of innings pitched and starts. But trying to play through it wasn't working this time.

"The elbow condition wasn't always there throughout the season," said Maeda, who was traded to the Twins in February 2020, then went on to finish second in last year's AL Cy Young Award voting. "It's been a tough grind, and if you look at the result, that kind of explains what it was like inside my elbow. Tough season throughout. And then when I was informed of the possibility of surgery to fix this issue, I was really surprised and a little sad to hear it, to be honest."

He said he opted for surgery, including Tommy John if that is what is required, because it gives him the best chance for a long-term recovery, even if he misses most or all of next season as a result. Maeda envisions himself being able to pitch for at least another five years.

"I might be out for a year or X amount of time, but that might elongate my pitching career in the long run," Maeda said. "I wanted to come back strong. I wanted to pitch like what I've used to been doing, so I decided to take the surgery route."

Maeda said he had noticed the velocity on his four-seam fastball was dipping into the mid- and high 80s, unsustainable for someone accustomed to throwing in the low 90s. Maeda said he was feeling discomfort as far back as April.

"It's to a point where the ligament condition isn't the best condition," said Maeda, referring to his ulnar collateral ligament. "It's always been that way since coming over to the big leagues. Although it seems like I could, my body and myself, could take, tolerate more pain than I guess an average pitcher. Maybe that's why I was able to pitch through and some doctor might suggest I could still pitch with the current condition."

Maeda will remain in Dallas for a while after the surgery because he said the first few weeks of rehab are critical and is opting to spend that time at facilities in that area. Even if Maeda does require Tommy John surgery, he is betting he can come back stronger than most pitchers in their mid-30s after such a significant procedure.

"What kind of pitches I throw ... is more important than the age in this regard," Maeda said. "It's not like I throw 100 [miles per hour]. I was also told I'd be able to come back stronger than before, so that was encouraging going forward, and I personally think I'm … in better fit condition than other 33-year-olds, so I think that helps, too."