Twins offense: Who is underperforming (and overperforming) based on projections?

The struggles of the Twins offense this season are no secret, serving as the overwhelming reason the Twins are an underwhelming 45-46 at the break despite having arguably the highest-performing pitching staff in baseball — a pace that, if sustained, could cost key decisionmakers their jobs.

As a group, Twins hitters have underachieved. But as I talked about on Friday's Daily Delivery podcast, there should at least be some room for optimism that an anemic offense can be better during a second-half schedule that is the easiest in all of MLB.

But where specifically should we look for improvement? And what first-half overachievers in the Twins lineup — yes, there were a few — might suffer a regression? Let's take a look.

The methodology: I looked at FanGraphs preseason offensive forecast for Twins hitters, isolating on the OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) projections of all contributors who were expected to get at least 200 plate appearances.

And I divided them into three groups based on results so far: Those who have underperformed, those who have hit basically according to projections and those who have overperformed.

Underperformers

Carlos Correa (Projected OPS: .810; Current OPS: .700; Difference: -110): This is the big one, and it's no secret. Correa hasn't been the player he was last season, and as the team's highest-paid player (by far) and leader his first-half slump has impacted the whole team.

Byron Buxton (-60 OPS): He was tied for the team lead in home runs (15) at the break, but he's becoming an all-or-nothing hitter.

Jose Miranda (-192 OPS): Projected to post a .758 OPS, Miranda instead has been almost 200 points worse while spending time in the minors — leaving another big lineup hole.

Max Kepler (-57 OPS): Even if he is what he is at this point of his career, Kepler has been worse than expected.

Christian Vazquez (-126 OPS): Free agent catcher has struggled at the plate

Nick Gordon (-183 OPS): Last year's utility player has been hurt and ineffective.

Within 40 OPS points of projection

Jorge Polanco (-26 OPS): He's been OK when healthy, but he's had just 127 plate appearances.

Trevor Larnach (+12 OPS): About as expected.

Alex Kirilloff (+31 OPS): Seems to be on the right track, one of the better hitters in the lineup.

Michael A. Taylor (+9 OPS): Great fielder, not a great hitter. The scouting report was right.

Kyle Farmer (-39 OPS): Twins could use more considering other injuries.

Overperformers

Ryan Jeffers (+109 OPS): Has helped offset the lack of production from Vazquez.

Royce Lewis (+54 OPS): Provided a spark before costly injury.

Donovan Solano (+94 OPS): A real bright spot, but he's already exceeded by 40 plate appearances his full season projection.

Joey Gallo (+42 OPS): Believe it or not, a .186 hitter counts as an overachiever on this team.

You can see that the three categories are roughly balanced in numbers, but not in impact. The five players who were expected to get at least 500 plate appearances this season — Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler and Miranda — have all underperformed.

The fate of the 2023 Twins likely depends on whether they progress back to an expected level or continue to falter.