Twins' slow build of pitching rotation continues, even as it feels frustrating

FORT MYERS, FLA. — Sometimes you want to hear how the cake was baked. Other times, you just want to eat the darn thing.

The Twins have talked about the process of building the support structure to identify, acquire and develop quality pitchers since President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey and General Manager Thad Levine arrived before the 2017 season.

And they have been sincere and well-reasoned in their approach to lift the Twins pitching staff.

To a point.

In the five years with "Falvine" steering the ship, Twins pitchers have posted a 61.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), better than the 58.4 accumulated over the five seasons before their arrival. Two years stand out: 2019, when the 23.6 pitchers WAR was fourth in baseball and best of any Twins staff over the past ten years by 7.6 points; and 2020, when the pandemic reduced the season to 60 games but the pitching WAR of 9.8 was third best in baseball.

But enough with the process. Isn't it time for even better results? Isn't it time the Twins start turning out homegrown pitching prospects who have more potential than a back-end rotation stabilizer?

While the Twins have assembled robust offenses, their rotation hasn't had formidable starters. The lack of a true ace was exacerbated by the trade of Jose Berrios to Toronto before last year's deadline. Berrios was the one All-Star-level starter the Twins have drafted and developed in more than a decade.

There will be two young starters in the rotation this year, but only one developed in the system. Righthander Joe Ryan, traded to the Twins from the Rays in July in the Nelson Cruz deal, will get the ball on Opening Day with five big-league games under his belt. Righthander Bailey Ober, drafted in the 12th round in 2017, started 20 games in 2021 to earn a spot out of camp this season.

More are coming, the Twins say. And that's an improvement the Falvey-Levine regime can take credit for.

"We've made progress," Falvey said. "We're never going to be satisfied with it. We're always going to want to make it better, but I'm excited about the young crew that's coming along and some of what our guys in the big leagues have accomplished for us particularly during our '19 and '20 seasons."

Falvey arrived in Minnesota from Cleveland, where pitching identification and development skills were his strengths. He's entering his sixth season in the big chair here, and it is time for tangible results.

Why? Because Berrios is the Opening Day starter in Toronto. And Hunter Greene, the righthander the Twins passed on to draft Royce Lewis No. 1 overall in 2017, made the Reds rotation with his 101-miles-per-hour fastball. And the Twins filled out this year's rotation via trades and free agency.

There are three avenues to land quality starting pitching.

One is to land a big-name free agent. The Twins have tried and failed. They've offered nine-figure contracts to Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler. They made two runs at postseason-tested Charlie Morton to no avail. They pursued Carlos Rodon and Zack Greinke last offseason.

But actions speak louder than words.

"We've learned over these number of years that there are very few, so to speak, impact guys that you can get through that free agent lens every offseason," Falvey said. "And we've pursued some of them along the way, some guys we really liked. And, unfortunately, sometimes those don't work out because there's a lot of teams pursuing them and sometimes it isn't just about the financial consideration.

"Sometimes it is about when a guy has 10 options or 12 options on the table. And he might be thinking about where he wants to go."

The second avenue is trades, a path the Twins have taken. It goes back to 2018, when the Twins sent popular infielder Eduardo Escobar to Arizona for a package that included rocket-armed righthander Jhoan Duran, who made this year's team as a reliever. Kenta Maeda came from the Dodgers in a trade for Brusdar Graterol before the 2020 season, but probably is out for the season because of Tommy John surgery last September.

Ryan was obtained last summer. And when the lockout ended, the Twins traded their first-round pick from last year — hard-throwing righthander Chase Petty — for projected No. 1 starter Sonny Gray.

While Falvey was with Cleveland, the Guardians landed a chunk of their starting rotation core — Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger — through trades.

The third route is developing their draft picks and international signings. This is a more realistic route for the Twins to add quality arms than offering a nine-figure contract to a free agent, but it's not the sexy way to build a rotation because the path to the majors can be fraught with wrong turns.

Ober is the first of a number of prospects the Twins are high on, and the first player to report after the lockout ended, manager Rocco Baldelli noted.

"Top-notch spring for him," Baldelli said. "Seems like pretty much the same guy and the same start almost every time out. It always feels like that. That's a good thing. We like consistency at this level and he's been consistently good."

Perhaps the Twins will one day make a splashy signing of a high-end free agent starter. Until then, greater success in the last two areas will reduce the need to fish in the deep end of the free agent pool.

"I view that as it's multi-pronged," Falvey said. "Each of those [avenues] have to be functioning really well for you to have the best overall pitching staff that you have.

"It's not about one singular area where you get all your pitching from. And I think we've made progress. We're never going to be satisfied with it. We're always going to want to make it better, but I'm excited about the young crew that's coming along."

Development takes time, which doesn't go over well with an impatient fan base.

Falvey believes in order to produce three quality starters, you need three times as many prospects. Injuries factor in. Stunted development occurs. Some prospects just can't get major league hitters out. Others (Duran?) end up as relievers.

Here are four prospective starters to watch.

Pitching coach Wes Johnson worked with prospects not on the 40-man roster here before the lockout ended.

"The beauty of it was, we were able to see all these guys," Johnson said. "and we've been hearing about them and so forth. And now you see them and there are things you can get excited about."

There was little development during the pandemic season of 2020, and injuries to a few of these prospective starters cost them last season or maybe they would be with the Twins by now. And, perhaps, upgrading the rotation wouldn't be such a priority.

Again, looking toward the future doesn't help the present. The Twins have a potent offense. A trade for a starter would help. Being more proactive in the early stages of free agency could have kept the Twins from relying on low-risk gambles on Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer.

The rotation would look different with a healthy Maeda, and would really look better if a healthy Maeda was the No. 3 starter on a good team.

The Twins say they are working on it.

"We've never wanted to rebuild during any of this stretch of time," Falvey said, "and so I think our goal has always been how do we make our team better? How do we supplement? How do we not tear away at the pipeline that's coming in?

"Build it but also make it work at the major league level, and that's a hard thing to do, but that is our goal and that is our mission and that's what we keep trying to do every year."