Making predictions of any sort leaves the forecaster vulnerable to having old takes exposed when things don't go according to projection.
84 wins? That's what one very optimistic projection says about Twins
Baseball Prospectus is higher on the Twins than just about anyone else around. Will the outlier prove to be true?
March 16, 2022 at 3:47PM
Just a year ago, for instance, many of us thought the Twins were in good enough shape to win a third consecutive AL Central title — maybe not 101-win, Bomba Squad dominant like 2019, but better than the rest.
Baseball Prospectus was among that optimistic group, projecting 91 wins and a division title for the Twins.
Instead, of course, just about everything that could go wrong — from injuries throughout the lineup to underperformance by key pitchers — did go wrong. The Twins were basically out of the competitive mix by mid-July, traded mainstays like Nelson Cruz and Jose Berrios, and played out the rest of a 73-89 season that was bad enough for last instead of first in the AL Central.
A logical guess as to how the 2022 season will go might be ... more of the same? Vegas Insider has the Twins' over-under win total at 75.5, and that feels about right in a season that seems like it's more about gaining information and getting organized than competing in a meaningful way.
But as I talked about on Wednesday's Daily Delivery podcast, there is one outlier that sees a much brighter next six months for the Twins than most.
Baseball Prospectus, in those same annual PECOTA projections that predicted a 91-win season for the Twins a year ago, has Minnesota winning 84 games this season and basically having a coin flip chance at making the postseason in the expanded 12-team field (six in each league).
Perhaps the most stunning thing: BP sees the Twins getting to 84 wins mainly with run prevention — allowing a projected 679 runs, the fourth-fewest in all of MLB. That includes a projected 2.92 ERA in 143 innings for Joe Ryan, who has made five career starts, and generally favorable projections for Dylan Bundy and Bailey Ober as well.
Sorry, but this seems wildly optimistic. If the Twins are able to acquire one more high-end starting pitcher (like Frankie Montas from the A's) I would feel a little better about the rotation. But as it stands now, I have major questions about the lineup, the defense, the rotation and the bullpen.
Other than that, everything looks great.
It would be a far more interesting summer if Baseball Prospectus is right and most of us are wrong about these Twins. But I just don't see it right now.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.
