Twins starting rotation: Last season’s stats, this season’s outlook

RHP Pablo López

2023 stats: 11-8 record, 3.66 ERA, 1.155 WHIP, 194 innings.

Outlook: He finished seventh in the AL Cy Young voting last year, and he believes he can take another step forward. He worked on commanding all five of his pitches better, so he can mix them against batters from both sides of the plate in any count. If he improves against lefty batters, he may lead the league in strikeouts.

RHP Joe Ryan

2023 stats: 11-10 record, 4.51 ERA, 1.169 WHIP, 161⅔ innings.

Outlook: The highs were high for Ryan (2.98 ERA in his first 15 starts) and the lows were low (6.62 ERA in last 14 starts). He has a special fastball, but the key is becoming more consistent with his secondary pitches. He plans to throw two versions of his slider this year, one more sweepy and a harder one with less horizontal movement, and he’s tinkering with a two-seam fastball.

RHP Bailey Ober

2023 stats: 8-6 record, 3.43 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 144⅓ innings.

Outlook: He remained steady as he pitched a career high number of innings, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 22 of his 26 starts. He’s thrown a touch harder this spring, prompting Bryce Harper to say good luck to the rest of the division if it holds up through the season.

RHP Chris Paddack

2023 stats: 1-0 record, 5.40 ERA, 1.400 WHIP, 5 innings.

Outlook: Back from Tommy John surgery, the Twins envision him playing a big role in filling Sonny Gray’s absence. He was electric out of the bullpen in the postseason and Paddack says his time as a reliever changed the way he wants to attack hitters. The Twins will be careful managing his innings, but he was brimming with confidence in camp.

RHP Louie Varland

2023 stats: 4-3 record, 4.63 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 68 innings.

Outlook: There was a lot of internal debate this winter about whether to put Varland in the rotation or the bullpen. He showed closer potential as a reliever, but he’ll receive another chance to start. He needs to refine his secondary pitches to successfully work through a lineup multiple times and that was his focus during spring training.