Twins like the look of 2024 starting rotation, but won't rule out seeking more talent

The Twins had eight starting pitchers make multiple starts in an excellent year for their pitching staff, but half of the group is set to reach free agency in a couple of weeks.

As the Twins look to build upon their run to the American League Division Series, the state of the rotation will be a major question over the offseason. Pablo López gives the Twins a No. 1 starter, and Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober return, but the club could lose key talent and depth to free agency.

The four impending free agents — Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle and Dallas Keuchel — combined to pitch 351⅔ innings this year.

Gray, who could finish in the top three in the AL Cy Young voting, should be one of the most sought-after pitchers on the free agent market. His age, turning 34 on Nov. 7, is the biggest knock against him, but he put together one of the finest seasons in his career and he's a frontline starter for any playoff team.

The Twins are expected to extend Gray a one-year qualifying offer, which will be worth around $20.5 million, as a formality. Gray, in all likelihood, will decline the qualifying offer to enter free agency, and the Twins will receive a draft pick after the first round of next year's draft if he signs elsewhere for more than $50 million.

"Of course, we would love to have him back," manager Rocco Baldelli said. "I think we nailed a lot of our acquisitions over the last couple of years. That's what it looks like when it goes really, really well."

The Twins are not expected to issue a qualifying offer to Maeda, who returned from Tommy John surgery this year. Maeda should garner interest in both MLB and Japan.

To fill one of the open slots in the rotation, the Twins are turning to Chris Paddack, who pitched well out of the bullpen in the postseason after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Paddack, who will turn 28 in January, saw an uptick in velocity and strikeouts in shorter outings.

"You can't write up what I've just been through any better," Paddack said after the Twins' Game 4 loss to the Houston Astros in the ALDS. "I've busted my butt for the past 16 months to get back in this clubhouse with these guys. To have some success in the postseason just makes me excited that all my hard work paid off."

Paddack faced 12 Astros batters across two relief appearances in the ALDS. He struck out six and permitted only one hit. Baldelli said members of the Astros privately raved about Paddack's pitches.

He likely won't be throwing 98 mph as a starting pitcher, and he'll have to mix in more curveballs and sliders with his changeup, but he thought the experience as a reliever was invaluable.

"I've learned a lot the past couple of weeks out there in the bullpen," said Paddack, who owns a 4.19 ERA in 65 career starts. "I really do think it's going to change my career [about] how to handle certain situations, how to stay on the gas, not get too high, not get too low, just be in control of every pitch. I think sometimes as a starter I get ahead of myself."

Among the incumbent group, López looked like an ace in the postseason. Ober should no longer have to worry about managing his innings, and the Twins remain high on Joe Ryan's upside, particularly from what he showed during the first half of the 2023 season.

Louie Varland's status as a starter or reliever might depend on whether pitchers are added to the rotation this winter. Varland prefers to start, noting those are the pitchers who are paid more. If he can refine his slider and changeup, the Twins think he can be a solid starting option.

Still, it's hard not to like what Varland did out of the bullpen in September.

"He has the ability to be an elite reliever," Baldelli said. "I don't want to make any bold statements. I'll talk to him soon. What he showed out of the bullpen was special. It's hard to look away from that and not at least think about that going forward."

The Twins carried great pitching depth in 2023. They withstood Mahle's season-ending elbow injury and an eight-week stint on the injured list for Maeda because they had Ober and Varland at Class AAA to begin the season. Keuchel turned into a fine midseason minor league pickup.

Barring an offseason full of pitching acquisitions that would require some surprise spending, the Twins likely won't have the same luxury. They might be relying on some of their pitching prospects, such as David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson and Matt Canterino, to fill gaps.

The Twins aren't starting their rotation from scratch, but it'll be a challenge not to have the biggest strength of their roster take a step backward.

"That's a good group to start with," said Derek Falvey, the Twins' president of baseball operations, after mentioning López, Ryan, Ober, Paddack and Varland, "but it doesn't mean we're not going to think about ways to get better."