Twins’ projected 2025 payroll is already affecting their trade deadline plans

The Twins, firmly a buyer ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline, are one of the many teams seeking a starting pitcher, but they may have to veer from their typical strategy.

Under Derek Falvey, the team’s president of baseball operations, the Twins have prioritized trading for pitchers under team control for multiple seasons. In 2022, Tyler Mahle and Jorge López weren’t going to be free agents for one-and-a-half seasons when they were added in separate trades. Pablo López and Sonny Gray weren’t trade deadline acquisitions, but they were both two years from free agency.

There is still a preference to add a pitcher with multiple seasons of team control, but the Twins’ imposed payroll limitations might push them toward a rental starter who becomes a free agent at the end of the season.

A big factor is the Twins’ 2025 payroll. Several players are in line for significant raises through contract extensions and salary arbitration. After slashing around $35 million from the payroll last winter, the Twins’ payroll will naturally rise to a higher starting point next offseason.

“We have to consider ways, if we can, to add to this with an eye toward the future as well,” Falvey said. “We want to be as sustainably competitive as possible. I know I’ve said that before, but I do think that’s always going to be the goal. There is never a situation where we’re not keeping some eye on the future.”

The Twins have $90 million committed to their five highest-paid players for next season: Carlos Correa, Pablo López, Byron Buxton, Christian Vázquez and Chris Paddack. More than a third of the Twins roster includes players who are eligible for arbitration next season, a group that includes Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran and Royce Lewis.

What it means is the Twins could lose all their impending free agents — Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer and Caleb Thielbar — and still enter the upcoming offseason with their payroll at their current $130 million level.

It will likely shape the Twins’ plans in free agency next winter, and more immediately it could affect the types of pitchers the Twins target during trade talks.

Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 3.31 ERA with Texas, holds a $20 million player option if he pitches 54 more innings this year. Tampa Bay’s Zach Eflin (4.09 ERA in 19 starts) is owed $18 million next year. Los Angeles Angels lefty Tyler Anderson, an All-Star with a 2.91 ERA in 20 starts, comes with a $13 million price tag in 2025.

Chicago White Sox righty Erick Fedde (2.98 ERA in 20 starts) is on a team-friendly deal, owed $7.5 million next year, but it’s the type of situation that may present challenges for the Twins besides the difficulty in completing an intradivision deal.

“I don’t think I view it any differently in the sense that when you get into a trade deadline, if there are ways to acquire a player that you think is going to impact you over multiple seasons, multiple playoff runs hopefully, you want that rather than one that might just help you for a portion of a season,” Falvey said.

The Twins are at the upper limits of where they want their payroll this season, so if they complete a deadline trade, they are likely in a spot where they will have to trade away from their major league roster to balance the salaries.

They have inquired about Toronto lefty Yusei Kikuchi, a free agent at the end of the season with a 4.54 ERA in 21 starts. Detroit’s Jack Flaherty (2.95 ERA in 18 starts) is likely the best rental starter available on the trade block, with several other options dependent on whether fringe playoff teams decide to sell or hold at the deadline.