Lynx will defeat Liberty in WNBA Finals, and here’s why

The 2024 Minnesota Lynx, three wins away from a fifth WNBA title, might not be the best team of Cheryl Reeve’s heralded coaching career.

But the soon-to-be champions might be her most fascinating group.

They are not a “superteam” with multiple well-decorated stars — although there are stretches of games in which their unselfish play and unyielding defense make them seem invincible.

Their one star player, Napheesa Collier, is a reluctant one. That’s not a knock. She embodies their unselfish play. She lifts her teammates. She accepts hard coaching.

“The way she shows up and she cares, it’s different,” guard Courtney Williams said. “And I think when your leader and your superstar moves like that, it’s easy to trickle down.”

Williams has grown into the playmaking role and plays relentless defense as well. Alanna Smith, like Williams, escaped from Chicago to Minnesota through free agency and is playing the best basketball of her career. So is Bridget Carleton, who finished third in Most Improved Player voting.

Shooters gotta shoot. Kayla McBride is a shooter. And I like shooters.

Reeve has whipped up quite a soufflé with these ingredients, with dashes of talent, belief and chemistry mixed in. Consequently, the drive for No. 5 will be completed over the next two weeks against a heralded New York Liberty team.

“I think it’s going the length,” Connecticut Sun coach Stephanie White said following her team’s 88-77 loss to the Lynx in the decisive Game 5 of the semifinals Tuesday. “I think it’s going five games. I think it is going to be a great series.”

The Liberty have been installed as decisive betting favorites heading into the series. This is surprising because the Lynx had the second-best regular-season record in the league and showed they have no fear of the Liberty.

Here are five reasons the Lynx will hoist the trophy.

1. The Lynx defeated New York three times this year. One win was at New York, 88-79 on Sept. 15 during the regular season. New York averaged only 74 points a game against the Lynx in three regular-season games, 86.5 against everyone else. And the Lynx won at New York on June 25 to take the Commissioner’s Cup. “I think Minnesota has proven to give New York some problems,” White said.

2. Collier. She can shoot the three. She can post up. She has a fadeaway jumper that is money. There will be a point during every game in which she is unguardable and forcing matchup issues. But even when she hits a patch when she’s not scoring, she rebounds, passes and moves without the ball. She averaged 16 points and 11.7 rebounds against New York during the regular season and scored 21 points in the Commissioner’s Cup final.

3. Smith’s post defense. The 6-6 Jonquel Jones might be the toughest matchup for the Lynx in this series. Smith is a forward acting as a center. But I watched her use quickness and anticipation to block shots by 6-9 Brittney Griner when the Lynx eliminated the Mercury. She finds a way to be effective, and she will do the same against Jones.

4. Williams. There will be a couple of times when Reeve will tire of Williams not moving the ball well or committing too many turnovers and will sit her on the bench for a few minutes. But Williams is a key offensive weapon, especially when she plays aggressively and gets defenses out of shape. That allows her to hunt for baskets with her midrange game or find an open teammate.

5. The collective. “They punched us in the face, and we got shell-shocked, and we could not fight back,” Connecticut’s DeWanna Bonner said following Tuesday’s game. The Lynx do it with perfect spacing on offense that puts Collier in places to score or get teammates involved. They do it by keeping opposing post players from dominating. They punch on both ends of the court, with the three and with D.

The Lynx are the first team to reach the WNBA Finals seven times.

Sometime over the next couple of weeks, they will become the first team in league history to win five championships.