Vikings-49ers preview and prediction: Can QB Sam Darnold beat his former team?

After posting the most lopsided victory of the Kevin O’Connell era with a 22-point win over the Giants, the Vikings open their home schedule with what might be their toughest game of the year. The 49ers have reached the Super Bowl or NFC Championship Game four of the past five years, and are coming off a commanding victory over the Jets on Monday night. Sam Darnold will try to repeat his success from Week 1 in what should be a tougher matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Here’s a preview of the Vikings’ home opener against the 49ers on Sunday:

After impressive win, an imposing foe: The 49ers haven’t won in Minnesota since 1992, and lost to the Vikings as seven-point favorites on a Monday night last October. But they started the season running for 180 yards, even without Christian McCaffrey, while their defense intercepted Aaron Rodgers once and forced a fumble in their 13-point win over the Jets on Monday night. After playing the 49ers last year and practicing against them in 2022, the Vikings know they are in for a physical game. “You’ve got to be able to match it, and you’ve got to try to match it early and not let them capture the momentum,” coach Kevin O’Connell said. “If we do that, you could see 40-plus runs out of [coach] Kyle [Shanahan] and this group. It just becomes a really hard team to capture the momentum back against.”

Darnold faces his former team: A year ago, as Darnold was running the 49ers’ scout team as their No. 2 quarterback, his arm strength made an impression on players like All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner. “I mean, I don’t know if I’ve seen as natural of a thrower of the football as him, being able to make all the throws,” Warner said this week. Darnold will face a 49ers team that’s prepared specifically to stop him, and the Vikings will see another talented pass rushing tandem in Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd. Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill had an impressive day against Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux last week; Darnold should have chances to test the 49ers’ secondary if he can work from clean pockets.

Jefferson-Ward matchup could be key: A strained hamstring meant Justin Jefferson was on the sideline for last October’s game with the 49ers, where Charvarius Ward took an interception out of Jordan Addison’s arms before the receiver wrestled a touchdown pass out of Ward’s hands before halftime. Ward, a former undrafted free agent, has become one of the league’s best corners, earning second-team All-Pro honors last year. Jefferson said Thursday he expects man coverage, adding the 49ers “have a pretty consistent tendency of how they play the No. 1 receiver.” He sounded eager for the matchup. “I love man-to-man coverage,” he said. “That’s something I feed off of.”

With Williams back, Vikings hope they can still pressure Purdy: In last year’s game, the Vikings blitzed Brock Purdy on 21 of his 33 dropbacks; they sacked him only once, but pressured him 12 times with All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams out because of injury. The 49ers will have Williams this year, meaning the Vikings’ attempt to get to Purdy could be more challenging. Darrisaw, who is frequently compared to Williams, has praised rookie Dallas Turner after their battles against one another in training camp. Those matchups could prepare Turner well for Williams, though the Vikings will likely move him around in search of advantageous matchups for the first-round pick.

Mason will be in for McCaffrey: Though McCaffrey said this week he planned to play against the Vikings, his Achilles tendon and calf issues led the 49ers to place him on injured reserve Saturday, meaning he will miss four games. That puts Jordan Mason in the backfield for San Francisco again. He ran 28 times for 147 yards against the Jets, and did much of his best work running through contact on the perimeter. Mason went undrafted out of Georgia Tech in 2022 after running a 4.58-second 40-yard dash, but the 223-pound back has shown he can be difficult to bring down, especially if the 49ers get chances to exact a physical toll with their run game.

Vikings

Out: WR Jordan Addison (ankle)

Questionable: G Ed Ingram (triceps), RT Brian O’Neill (elbow), S Harrison Smith (hip)

49ers

Out: RB Christian McCaffrey (calf, Achilles)

Doubtful: S Talanoa Hufanga (knee)

Questionable: LB Dee Winters (ankle)

Last year, the Vikings beat the 49ers by controlling the run, forcing Purdy into mistakes and riding a 378-yard effort from Kirk Cousins. This year, they’ll need to replicate their defensive success and get another strong performance from Darnold, whose list of options beyond Jefferson are limited by Addison’s ankle injury. Teams showed they could run on San Francisco at the end of last season; it’d help the Vikings if Aaron Jones replicates the 108-yard effort he had against them in the playoffs. The 49ers’ depth and forcefulness makes this a tough challenge, and absent a couple big plays on defense, the Vikings might have a tough time pulling this one out. 49ers 24, Vikings 20

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