Neal: Vikings could profit off a Bears team that wins ugly and loses dramatically

Disclaimer: The author of this piece was born and raised in Chicago. That means he is a disgruntled football fan.

In the past three meetings between the Bears and Vikings, Chicago has scored 12, 13 and 13 points. That trend of feeble offense will continue Sunday in Soldier Field, as the Vikings ease their way to a double-digit victory and a 9-2 record.

The Vikings are in an excellent position to profit off a Bears team that wins ugly and loses dramatically. The Bears are banged up and undermanned on the offensive line and have mismanaged games when they are leading. Their season has been defined by a Hail Mary loss at Washington and a blocked kick as time expired last week at home vs. Green Bay. (The Packers committed a leverage penalty during the block that wasn’t called but, hey, I’m not a complainer).

It’s not always who you play but when you play them. The Vikings are catching a Bears team that is on a four-game losing streak and recently canned its offensive coordinator and is too timid to do it to the head coach in-season.

Kevin O’Connell and the Bears’ Matt Eberflus were hired within a month of each other. In year three of their tenures, KOC is 28-16, Eberflus is 14-30. The reasons why will be laid out Sunday in Chicago for all to see.

Much has been made of how efficient the Bears offense was last Sunday with replacement coordinator Thomas Brown calling the plays. It looked that way, as Caleb Williams’ release time was the quickest of the season and several of his receivers got touches.

This new and improved version of the offense exploded for 19 points vs. the Packers.

The Packers defense isn’t shabby, but the Vikings defense breathes fire when everyone is healthy.

The Bears offensive line has suffered breakdowns throughout the season. Brown’s play calling last week took pressure off the line while protecting Williams. But here comes the diabolical Brian Flores and his blitz-intensive scheme. The man dialed up a corner blitz on Tennessee’s first offensive play last week. Who does that?

“He’s the king of cover zero blitz and finding a bunch of different ways to do it,” Williams said of Flores.

The Bears know what’s coming. But you can’t stop what you don’t see. And Vikings defenders will be coming from everywhere. They enter the game fourth in sacks and have held opposing quarterbacks to a 79.4 passer rating.

The Chicago offense is at its best when there’s a complimentary running game. But the Vikings have the best run defense in the NFL, averaging 74.4 yards a game, with Harrison Phillips and Blake Cashman playing very well. Bears running back D’Andre Swift has been nursing a sore groin muscle and won’t be 100%. Another matchup that favors the Purple.

The only way the Vikings can screw this up is if their turnover-prone quarterback, Sam Darnold, throws the game away. But the Vikings don’t have to throw a lot to win this game. Aaron Jones should spend the afternoon getting to the second level of the Bears defense because run-stopper Andrew Billings is out for the season. Safety play is a problem, too, as Jaquan Brisker is out with a concussion and backup Elijah Hicks is banged up, forcing Chicago to sign a safety off the street during the week.

Everyone is looking forward to the battle between wide receiver Justin Jefferson and Jaylon Johnson, who has become one of the best cornerbacks in the league. But Jordan Addison should be started in most fantasy leagues this week because Tyrique Stevenson, when he’s not jawing with fans during a Hail Mary, has become one of the most picked-on corners in the NFL. Teams have found advantages there.

With Montez Sweat playing on one leg, Chicago’s pass rush has suffered. Vikings skill position players can thrive Sunday.

The Vikings are winning games they could have lost (Jacksonville). The Bears had a 71.3% win probability against Green Bay and more than 90% in the fourth quarter against Washington — and lost both. It won’t be that favorable on Sunday against the Vikings.

If the Vikings don’t win by at least 10 points they should be forced to spend an extra week in the Windy City, watching Bulls and Blackhawks games.