Vikings big question: Which opponent is the most favorable matchup in the first round of the playoffs?

Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell indicated starters will play Sunday in Chicago because they want the No. 2 seed if they can get it.

January 4, 2023 at 12:19AM
The Vikings could face, clockwise from top left, Geno Smith, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones or Aaron Rodgers in the first round of the NFL playoffs. (Star Tribune and Associated Press photos/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The NFL world stopped on Monday night, when Bills safety Damar Hamlin was transported to a Cincinnati hospital after going into cardiac arrest following a collision with Bengals receiver Tee Higgins. The league suspended the game between the two AFC contenders; it has not determined whether the game will be made up, after an event that made things like wins, losses and playoff standings seem fairly trivial.

The league said on Tuesday, though, that it has made no changes to its Week 18 schedule. Assuming the Vikings play their regular-season finale as scheduled against the Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday, they will do so with a relatively clear set of playoff scenarios.

They are currently tied with San Francisco for the NFC's No. 2 seed, but would lose a tiebreaker for the spot based on conference record. If they finish ahead of the 49ers in the standings, they would begin the playoffs against the NFC's No. 7 seed (the Seahawks, Lions or Packers) and be guaranteed a second home playoff game should they win on wild-card weekend Jan 14-16.

If the Vikings finish tied with the 49ers or behind them in the NFC standings, they'd be the No. 3 seed and open the playoffs at home against the Giants. They could host a divisional playoff game if the 49ers lost to Seattle, Detroit or Green Bay in the wild-card round; otherwise, the Vikings would visit San Francisco in the divisional round. (The 49ers still have a shot at the No. 1 seed, which could leave the Eagles or Cowboys, who have both beaten the Vikings this season, as the No. 2.)

The question, heading into the final weekend of the regular season, is this: Which opponent is the most favorable matchup for the Vikings in the first round of the playoffs?

A quick Twitter poll on Monday night delivered a snapshot of how a portion of the Vikings fanbase is thinking: More than half of the 3,885 respondents said they favor a rematch with the Giants (whom the Vikings beat 27-24 on Christmas Eve), while 32.6% picked the Seahawks. The prospect of a third meeting with either the Packers or Lions was unpopular; just over 12% said they wanted to face Green Bay again, while only 2.8% picked the Lions as their preferred wild-card opponent.

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Playing the Giants, of course, means the Vikings ended up with the No. 3 seed, either because they didn't receive the help they need from the Cardinals or because they rested starters against the Bears and lost.

Because the Vikings play at noon Sunday, and San Francisco plays at 3:25 p.m., they won't have the luxury of checking scores and pulling starters if the No. 2 seed should be out of reach. But coach Kevin O'Connell indicated Monday they'd play their starters in Chicago and make small adjustments to playing time if possible. He continued to indicate the Vikings want the No. 2 seed if they can get it.

"I think it would probably be more subtle than [sitting starters], just knowing that the two seed is still available for us," O'Connell said. "Regardless, we still have a lot to play for just from a momentum standpoint — [for] a football team that's had some highs this year, for sure, and then one of our low moments of the season yesterday where you'd like to be able to rely on a lot of things we built here to come back together and make sure we rectify some of the issues that contributed yesterday."

O'Connell's approach suggests he believes the upside of the No. 2 seed is worth playing starters for a 17th time, rather than resting them and resigning the team to the No. 3 seed and a rematch with the Giants. That approach likely has plenty to do with a possible divisional round matchup with the 49ers; the Vikings would undoubtedly prefer to put third-string San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy in U.S. Bank Stadium's din, rather than giving him a quiet environment to work with at home.

And while another home date with the Giants might be preferable to a wild-card matchup with a division foe that beat the Vikings in the past month (the Lions or Packers), it's worth wondering how the loss of right tackle Brian O'Neill to a calf injury could affect that matchup. The Giants blitz more frequently than any team in the league, and sacked Kirk Cousins four times on Dec. 24; while center Garrett Bradbury could return in time for the game, O'Neill would need the Vikings to go on a deep playoff run to see the field again this season.

Given the state of the Vikings' offensive line, a wild-card matchup against the Seahawks might be the preferred draw. Seattle has the league's ninth-lowest quarterback pressure rate at 18.7%, and the Seahawks have the third-worst run defense in the NFL.

The Giants are the most likely matchup at the moment; the 49ers, with a chance at the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage, will be at home against a Cardinals team with nothing to play for Sunday. The Packers might be the most likely opponent if the Vikings end up as the No. 2 seed, though Vikings fans might prefer watching Rodgers try to rectify his playoff struggles against San Francisco rather than seeing him at U.S. Bank Stadium in two weeks.

Like the Packers, the Lions have beaten Minnesota recently, and have a quarterback who has started a Super Bowl; more favorably for the Vikings, neither the Seahawks' Geno Smith nor the Giants' Daniel Jones has played in a playoff game.

about the writer

about the writer

Ben Goessling

Sports reporter

Ben Goessling has covered the Vikings since 2012, first at the Pioneer Press and ESPN before becoming the Minnesota Star Tribune's lead Vikings reporter in 2017. He was named one of the top NFL beat writers by the Pro Football Writers of America in 2024, after honors in the AP Sports Editors and National Headliner Awards contests in 2023.

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