Ben Goessling's Vikings-Bills preview and prediction: Who wins and why?

When: noon Sunday, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.

TV, radio: Ch. 9, 100.3-FM

Line: Bills by 6½

Vikings' toughest road test could be easier if Allen can't go
Quarterback Josh Allen might not play for the Bills (6-2) on Sunday after sustaining damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow last week against the Jets. If Allen can't play, the Vikings (7-1) would avoid facing one of the league's top quarterbacks. Instead, they'd face Case Keenum, whose career year came when he led the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game in 2017.

Diggs, Jefferson share the field for the first time
The Vikings selected Justin Jefferson with the first-round pick they got in the Stefon Diggs trade; Jefferson has broken numerous NFL records during his first 2 ½ seasons while Diggs has become the top target for two Bills playoff teams. The two receivers will undoubtedly be watching each other on Sunday as they try to outdo the other's accomplishments; both defenses will make it a priority to cover the wideouts closely.

Frazier's defense: simple, yet effective
Former Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier is the defensive coordinator in Buffalo, working with head coach Sean McDermott to oversee a unit that has allowed the fewest points and the fourth-fewest yards in the league. The Bills play most of the time with two deep safeties — as Vikings fans might find familiar from Frazier's time in Minnesota — and blitz infrequently, but have posted 23 sacks and generated consistent pressure with a front that features future Hall of Famer Von Miller and talented defensive tackle Ed Oliver.

Vikings LT Christian Darrisaw vs. Bills LB Von Miller
Darrisaw hasn't given up a sack all season, and had a particularly impressive day against an athletic front in Washington last week. Miller will rush from both sides of the Bills' formation, but he could play a majority of snaps on Darrisaw's side, where he'll test the second-year tackle with a variety of pass rushing moves. The Bills' interior pass rush will be a big enough challenge for the Vikings that they'll have to trust Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill to handle themselves on the outside.

Vikings CB Patrick Peterson vs. Bills WR Stefon Diggs
The Vikings haven't asked their cornerbacks to shadow receivers this season, so covering Diggs will likely be a group effort, but the receiver lines up on the right side of the Bills' formation enough that he'll see plenty of Peterson. The snaps where they face each other one-on-one should be great entertainment. Diggs is one of the league's most dynamic route runners, while Peterson's technique and instincts have him enjoying a resurgent season in 2022. His ability to deal with Diggs' double moves will be key.

52.2%: The Bills' third-down conversion percentage this season, highest in the NFL by more than 2%. The Chiefs (at 50%) are the only other team in the NFL to convert at least half their third downs.

They can sustain drives against a Bills defense that's given up 382 rushing yards the past two weeks (after allowing only 457 the first six games), protect Kirk Cousins against a fierce four-man pass rush and sustain their passing game on what's projected to be a windy day in Buffalo. Even if Allen doesn't play, the Vikings will need to handle the Bills' deep threats with cornerback Akayleb Evans making his first NFL start in place of Cameron Dantzler (ankle), who was placed on injured reserve on Saturday.

They can neutralize Za'Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter, test the Vikings' secondary with Dantzler out and keep the ball away from Harrison Smith, who has picked off a pass in the Vikings' past three games. Defensively, the Bills will need to control Dalvin Cook and force Cousins into the kind of game where he's making hurried throws into Buffalo's zone coverage, potentially exposing him to turnovers.

Allen's injury status makes this a grand opportunity for the Vikings, who could deliver a statement with a win over one of the NFL's best teams on the road. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is questionable with groin and heel injuries, which could keep the Bills without one of their best defensive playmakers. Not having Dantzler could test the Vikings' secondary, but if they can run the ball as effectively as the Jets did against the Bills a week ago and use T.J. Hockenson to attack the middle of the defense, they'll make just enough plays to sneak out of Buffalo with a win. Vikings 17, Bills 13