Vikings at Chargers: 3 story lines, 2 key matchups, 1 prediction

When: 3:05 p.m. Sunday, SoFi Stadium

TV, radio: Ch. 9, 100.3-FM

Line: Chargers by 3½

Facing a Chargers team that's been up and down this season, the Vikings certainly could emerge from SoFi Stadium with a victory, especially given how many of their fans are likely to make the trip west for the game. A Vikings defense that has been depleted by injuries and COVID-19, though, could have too much trouble slowing down Justin Herbert to come out of L.A. with the win.

THREE STORY LINES

Heading west after a tumultuous week
The Vikings found out last Sunday morning they wouldn't have Harrison Smith after the safety tested positive for COVID-19. They squandered a 17-3 lead in an overtime loss to the Ravens that day, when their defense played 89 plays. Dakota Dozier was hospitalized because of COVID-19, as 29 people went through close contact protocols, and a former girlfriend of Dalvin Cook filed a lawsuit against the running back alleging physical and emotional abuse. Now, a 3-5 team heads to the West Coast trying to brush all that off and win an important game before a home matchup against the Packers.

Top 2020 rookies face off
Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson finished second in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year balloting last year, losing out to Herbert. They'll be on the same field for the first time on Sunday, as the Chargers try to stay atop the AFC West while the Vikings look to keep their playoffs hopes alive. Herbert has thrown 18 touchdowns against six interceptions this season, while Jefferson has 46 catches for 632 yards and four TDs.

Offense looks to assert itself
First-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak said all the right things this week about wanting to get the Vikings' top playmakers more involved, and the Vikings could have great opportunities to get Cook going against a Chargers run defense that ranks last in the league. But after a week when Jefferson had only two catches following his 50-yard touchdown, the Vikings know they need to get him going. "You don't want to come out of a game and Justin has those kind of targets," Kubiak said. "He's well-deserving of getting the ball more."

TWO KEY MATCHUPS

Vikings DE Everson Griffen vs. Chargers LT Rashawn Slater
The Vikings were interested in trading up for Slater in the draft last spring, before they traded back in the first round and eventually took Christian Darrisaw. They'll ask Griffen to match up with the 13th overall pick and try to get to Herbert. "He doesn't have the longest arms, but he has good feet," Griffen said of Slater on Thursday. "He has good bend in his hips, so he can mirror. A good left tackle, they can mirror whatever the defensive end is doing, so he can move pretty well."

Vikings defense vs. Chargers QB Justin Herbert
Herbert might be the most talented passer the Vikings have faced since Seattle's Russell Wilson in Week 3. Herbert's thrown six interceptions in eight games, so there could be opportunities for Minnesota to create turnovers against him, but his arsenal of weapons and his ability to diagnose defenses make him one of the more difficult matchups the Vikings secondary has seen.

ONE STAT THAT MATTERS

51.7% The success rate opposing teams have — or the percentage of time they gain a significant number of yards toward a first down — when running the ball against the Chargers this season. That's the highest rate in the league, according to data from NFL Fast R.

THE VIKINGS WILL WIN IF …

They can run the ball consistently enough with Cook to make the Chargers pay for loading up to stop the pass, while keeping Kirk Cousins out of third-and-long situations. The Vikings also need their running game to provide a break for a worn-down defense that was on the field for 46 minutes last Sunday and will be without several key defenders again as it tries to slow down the Chargers offense.

THE CHARGERS WILL WIN IF …

Herbert has time to work against a Vikings secondary that will again be without Harrison Smith and Patrick Peterson and might not have Bashaud Breeland at 100% after the groin injury he sustained against the Ravens. Los Angeles can also put itself in command by slowing Cook down enough to force Cousins to work against the types of coverage schemes he's been reluctant to challenge so far this season.

PREDICTION

Chargers 33, Vikings 31