Do the Vikings have the answers for the Chiefs? Ben Goessling's preview and prediction

The Vikings host Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes for the first time, seeking to end a three-game home winning streak.

October 7, 2023 at 7:27PM
Keeping Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones away from quarterback Kirk Cousins will be a priority for the Vikings on Sunday. (Star Tribune illustration/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
  • Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Sunday
  • Where: U.S. Bank Stadium
  • TV: CBS
  • Radio: KFAN-FM 100.3; Sirius/XM 104, 225 (Vikings), 109, 384 (Chiefs)
  • Line: Chiefs by 3½

A week after their first victory of the season, the Vikings (1-3) return to U.S. Bank Stadium for their highest-profile home game of the year to date: against the Chiefs (3-1), with two Super Bowl trophies and three conference championships in the past four years, a possible Hall of Fame coach, a two-time MVP quarterback, a pass rusher who has reached four consecutive Pro Bowls and a four-time All-Pro tight end who has played his past two games in front of a celebrity entourage. If the Vikings want to end their three-game home losing streak and make a statement about their competitiveness in 2023, they've got a great chance to do it Sunday.

Here's a look at the key matchups and story lines:

THE BIGGEST STORY LINE

Vikings face Mahomes for the first time: There's been plenty written about the time Patrick Mahomes spent in Minnesota as a kid, when his father was pitching for the Twins, but the quarterback hasn't faced the Vikings in a regular-season game during his six-year career. He missed the game in Kansas City between the two teams in 2019 because of injury, and the Vikings' only appearance against Mahomes was in a preseason game in 2021. He will face fellow "Quarterback" star Kirk Cousins for the first time in a game, too, and Brian Flores' defense will have plenty to think about when facing Mahomes.

VIKINGS OFFENSE VS. CHIEFS DEFENSE

Sneed could follow Jefferson on Sunday: The Chiefs have tasked cornerback L'Jarius Sneed with shadowing an opponent's top receiver in recent weeks, putting him on Jets wideout Garrett Wilson last week. He could follow Justin Jefferson on Sunday afternoon. "We won't always be able to get 'L'J' on him," Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo said this week. "They move him around enough, they've got him inside, so there will be some times that that won't happen. But it'll be a good battle if they end up across from [one another on the] line of scrimmage." The Chiefs used Sneed in press coverage frequently against Wilson and could have him take a similar approach with Jefferson, potentially putting a safety over the top of the Vikings star, as well.

Jones is offensive line's next tough matchup: Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones, who finished third in the NFL's defensive player of the year vote last season, has 3½ sacks in the three games he has played since he signed a new contract and ended his holdout. The Vikings are planning for center Garrett Bradbury to return from his back injury, with Ezra Cleveland and Ed Ingram lining up next to him. Jones' quickness off the line and his length make him a unique challenge for a Vikings line that's struggled with dynamic interior pass rushers, so keeping him away from Kirk Cousins will be a priority for the Vikings on Sunday.

VIKINGS DEFENSE VS. CHIEFS OFFENSE

Blitzing Mahomes (or not?): According to Pro Football Focus, opponents have blitzed Mahomes only 14.8% of the time this season. The Vikings, who lead the league with a 57% blitz rate, will have to determine how much they want to send extra pressure after a quarterback who's done much of his best work extending plays and making throws on the run. The Dolphins intercepted Mahomes on two of the Chiefs' first three possessions in a 2020 game between the teams when Vikings defensive coordinator Flores was Miami's head coach, but Mahomes rallied to throw for 393 yards in a Kansas City win that day.

Kelce connection could be Vikings' biggest challenge: Part of what makes Mahomes so dangerous, Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell said this week, is his connection with Travis Kelce that allows the Chiefs to be productive even when defenses execute plans against them correctly. The Vikings have frequently lined up with five, six or seven defensive backs this season, and they could employ an extra safety to try and slow Kelce down over the middle of the field. Defending him well, however, could mean the Vikings have to hold coverage schemes even longer than usual, given Mahomes' ability to buy time and Kelce's skill at manipulating zone coverages.

INJURY REPORT

Vikings

Questionable: OLB Marcus Davenport (ankle), S Lewis Cine (hamstring), LB Brian Asamoah II (toe), QB Nick Mullens (back)

Chiefs

Questionable: LB Nick Bolton (ankle), DT Matt Dickerson (knee), OL Wanya Morris (hip)

PREDICTION

Much of the attention before this one has been focused on whether Taylor Swift will make it three Chiefs games in a row; the Vikings, for justifiable reasons, have been concerned with other things. Their defense will have to find ways to pressure Mahomes without getting burned when he escapes, while their offensive line will contend with Jones and a Spagnuolo defense that blitzes at his characteristically heavy rates. The Vikings could take advantage of a shaky Chiefs offensive line, particularly if Davenport is as available and effective as he was last week, but the Mahomes-Kelce combination, as well as Isiah Pacheco's production as a runner and receiver, might be a little too much for the Vikings to handle in this one. Prediction: Chiefs 30, Vikings 21

about the writer

about the writer

Ben Goessling

Sports reporter

Ben Goessling has covered the Vikings since 2012, first at the Pioneer Press and ESPN before becoming the Minnesota Star Tribune's lead Vikings reporter in 2017. He was named one of the top NFL beat writers by the Pro Football Writers of America in 2024, after honors in the AP Sports Editors and National Headliner Awards contests in 2023.

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