Ben Goessling's Vikings-Dolphins prediction: Who wins and why?

When: noon Sunday, Hard Rock Stadium

TV, radio: Ch. 9, 100.3-FM

Line: Vikings by 3½

Vikings seek to end losing streak in Miami
After winning three straight games by one score, the Vikings can head into their bye with a 5-1 record if they win on Sunday. They've only played five regular-season games in Miami during their 62 seasons; the last time they won there was Dec. 11, 1976, when Sammy White caught three touchdown passes from Fran Tarkenton in a 29-7 win at the Orange Bowl. A victory on Sunday, in the building that replaced the Orange Bowl 35 years ago, would send the Vikings into their bye week feeling awfully good about their start.

It's third-stringer Thompson for Dolphins
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is still in the NFL's concussion protocol after a pair of injuries that made the league change its process. Coach Mike McDaniel also said he won't start Teddy Bridgewater against the team that drafted him, as Bridgewater was only cleared from the concussion protocol Saturday. That means seventh-round pick Skylar Thompson will make his first NFL start. He went 19-for-33 for 166 yards and an interception when filling in for Bridgewater in a loss to the Jets last week. Thompson won't have to deal with Vikings linebacker D.J. Wonnum, who will miss the game because of illness.

Jefferson, Hill share the field for the first time
Coming off two consecutive 100-yard games, Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson will look for another big day, especially given who will be on the other sideline: Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill, who's caught 38 passes for 524 yards in his first five games with Miami after an offseason trade from Kansas City. "We're top receivers in the league," Jefferson said. "So whenever we go up against each other, of course he wants the upper hand, I want the upper hand."

Vikings CB Cameron Dantzler vs. Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill
Dantzler has made the Vikings' final big play each of the past two weeks: a pass breakup that might have saved a touchdown against the Saints, and his strip of Ihmir Smith-Marsette to end the Bears' final drive on Sunday. He will have a tough day against Hill, who could test Dantzler (and Camryn Bynum) deep but might be just as tough of an assignment underneath, where Thompson might try to find him on crossing routes. The Vikings will have to be disciplined in their zone coverages with Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Vikings C Garrett Bradbury vs. Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins
Wilkins was the 13th overall pick in the 2019 draft; Bradbury went 18th overall. They last shared a field on Oct. 20, 2018, when top-ranked Clemson beat No. 16 North Carolina State 41-7. Though Wilkins had 14 sacks for Clemson that season, he didn't have one that day against the line Bradbury anchored. The center, who ranks fifth among centers in ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate, will try to keep his strong start going.

1.6 Percentage of the time the Dolphins sack the quarterback without blitzing. That's the lowest rate in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions. A blitz-heavy defense will likely look to bring extra pressure after Kirk Cousins.

Their pass protection unit handles the Dolphins' blitzes and gives Cousins time to pick on a secondary where Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard is dealing with a groin injury. The Vikings also will need a strong plan for Hill and Jaylen Waddle; if they're able to limit both receivers and make Thompson work through his reads, they could force the young quarterback into some difficult throws that lead to incomplete passes or turnovers.

Thompson can take advantage of the weapons around him, particularly Hill and Waddle, to help the Dolphins build an early lead and allow their blitz to affect Cousins. Miami will likely devote extra attention to Jefferson, even if Howard plays, and if the Dolphins defensive line can win the battle of highly drafted players along the line of scrimmage, they can keep the Vikings from using Dalvin Cook as an effective counterpunch in the Miami native's first NFL game in South Florida.

This looked like a tough matchup for the Vikings when the Dolphins started 3-0 with Tagovailoa, and it could still be a challenge given Miami's offensive talent. But with Thompson making his first NFL start, the Vikings should have a significant quarterbacking advantage here. If Cousins can lead as many productive drives as he has the past two weeks, and if the Vikings can finish more of them with points than they have against the Saints or Bears, they should get their fourth straight win and improve to 5-1. Vikings 31, Dolphins 23