Vikings' run game remains productive when pass game fizzles

The Vikings began their pursuit of a more efficient run game this offseason, picking Alexander Mattison over Dalvin Cook and giving contracts to blockers such as tight end Josh Oliver and fullback C.J. Ham, with the idea they could help Kirk Cousins.

An improved run game, so the thinking went, would keep the quarterback from facing as many long third-down situations where defenses could pressure him and open up more of Kevin O'Connell's playbook for Cousins on second downs where the Vikings needed 6 yards or fewer for a first down.

The Vikings' run game ranked 25th in success rate — a metric that shows how often a running play gains a significant portion of the yardage needed for a new set of downs — in 2022. It improved to 13th through the first eight weeks of the season, though turnovers, a lack of consistency and the Vikings' general offensive approach still meant the team ranked 27th in total rushing attempts with Cousins on the field.

In the five games since Cousins tore his right Achilles tendon, though, the run game has assumed a more central role in the offense, particularly with Joshua Dobbs playing all but 30 snaps at quarterback. The Vikings have run 149 times in those games, the sixth most in the NFL. On Sunday, they ran on 30 of their 71 plays, with a 56% success rate that ranked as their best of the season and topped the NFL in Week 14.

"We really relied on the run game," O'Connell said Monday. "We converted on some third downs with a couple of runs, quarterback run, Alex [Mattison] running it or Ty [Chandler], running for a first on a third-and-3-or-4, I believe. When I look at it, I think the run game was incredibly efficient."

This week could mean another shift, with Mattison uncertain for Saturday's game at Cincinnati because of a sprained right ankle, the Vikings facing offensive line injuries and another quarterback shift possibly in the works after O'Connell pulled Dobbs in favor of Nick Mullens during the fourth quarter of Sunday's 3-0 win in Las Vegas.

The Vikings could be inclined to start Mullens against the Bengals, after he completed nine of his 13 passes for 83 yards and drove the offense to the game's only score. The first priority for their offense is to reignite a passing game that netted only 16 yards with Dobbs in the game on Sunday. "In the end in this league, you do need to still drop back and throw the football, especially to maximize a guy like Justin Jefferson coming back into our offense," O'Connell said.

After the Vikings decided to stick with Dobbs at quarterback last week, they opened the game in the pistol formation and ran out of the shotgun more than they had all season, O'Connell said.

"One of the real positives of having Josh in there was, we did use the threat of him being a runner," he said. "We ran some zone-read variations where it was clear and evident that the Raiders were having to account for him, with a player along the line of scrimmage or a [linebacker] over the top. When we did get some really physical work up front and got our combinations on those interior down linemen, it allowed us to get some downhill runs, some vertical runs, where we're going to churn out 4 or 5 yards. Alex ran through some tackles there, for a couple of explosive hits."

The Vikings, O'Connell said, "really needed those plays" because of how little they were able to generate from their passing game. "We had three or four [opportunities] in the first half that could have been some explosives that maybe get you going." If the Vikings were to change from Dobbs to Mullens, it would likely be because a spark to the passing game would matter more than the benefits Dobbs brings to the run game.

Regardless of who's playing quarterback, the Vikings will need some of the contributions they've received from the run game to continue. Mattison has gained 118 yards on 20 carries in his past two games, and hasn't fumbled after his turnover against the Broncos. If he's out on Saturday, the Vikings would have to turn to Chandler, who averaged 2.9 yards on 12 carries, involve Kene Nwangwu (who carried twice after Mattison's injury) or elevate Myles Gaskin from the practice squad. They might mix in runs from Ham (who carried once for 7 yards against the Raiders) or wide receiver Brandon Powell, while trying to piece together a line that figures to start the week with right guard Ed Ingram and right tackle Brian O'Neill on the injury report.

However they put it together, they'll likely need the run game to aid their quarterback even more than they expected when they designed their 2023 offense for Cousins in the offseason. In a game that remained scoreless for 58 minutes on Sunday, O'Connell found himself grateful for a component of the offense that helped the Vikings avoid catastrophe.

"Where we weren't as effective on those early downs in generating some explosives in the pass game, the run game still allowed us to [stay] manageable for the most part when we could avoid penalties and at least flip the field," O'Connell said. "When your defense is playing that well and you're able to not turn the ball over offensively, you give yourself a chance regardless of how messy it's been on offense."