Vikings-Giants preview and prediction: Matchups to watch and who will win

The Vikings start the regular season on the road for the first time in Kevin O’Connell‘s tenure, but given what awaits them at the start of their home schedule, their trip to New Jersey takes on extra importance. They’ll face the Giants for the first time since losing to New York in the 2022 NFC wild-card round. Daniel Jones earned a big contract off his performance in the win; the quarterback has struggled since then, and Brian Flores’ defense isn’t the Ed Donatell-led group that afforded Jones plenty of space in that game. The Giants have a new defense, too, with Shane Bowen coming from Tennessee as the coordinator, and an already-formidable pass rush got stronger with the addition of Brian Burns this offseason.

Here’s a look at what to expect from the season opener on Sunday:

Darnold makes his debut: The Vikings planned for Sam Darnold to be their starter after they signed him in March, but when J.J. McCarthy tore his right meniscus in August, it made Darnold’s status as the No. 1 quarterback even clearer for 2024. He’ll return to MetLife Stadium, where he started his career with the Jets, to begin a season that could reboot his career if it goes well. He’ll have to show he’s cut down on the turnovers that have harmed him during his career, and he could be playing under pressure if the Giants’ pass rush is as formidable in this game as it was in the playoffs two years ago.

Offensive line in for a test: When Garrett Bradbury added weight this offseason through a new diet, it surely was not lost on the center that his first matchup would be against Dexter Lawrence, the 340-pound nose tackle who had four quarterback hits and a tackle for loss in the playoff game two years ago. The Giants still have Kayvon Thibodeaux, and they added edge rusher Brian Burns, who went to two Pro Bowls and posted 46 sacks in his first five seasons with the Panthers. Christian Darrisaw faced Burns in college, and again in his first NFL start in Carolina three years ago; they’ll match up again as the Vikings try to protect Darnold. When the Titans came to Minnesota for joint practices two years ago, their defensive front had two disruptive days against the Vikings’ offensive line; Bowen will likely bring a variety of pressure packages with him from Tennessee, adding to the challenge the Vikings face against the Giants’ front.

New-look run game makes its debut: Teammates have raved about running back Aaron Jones’ speed and decisiveness, and the Vikings seem set to make a larger commitment to the run in 2024 than they have in coach Kevin O’Connell‘s first two seasons. They’ll face a Giants team that changed defensive coordinators after ranking 29th against the run last season. The Vikings know they’ll have to play differently with Darnold at quarterback than they did with Kirk Cousins; they‘ve seemed committed to heavier personnel and downhill runs this season, so they could use that approach to wear down the Giants’ front and provide a helpful counterpunch for Darnold.

Jones faces Flores’ defense this time: In the playoff game two years ago, Jones completed 24 of his 35 passes for 301 yards and two scores, in a performance that paved the way for his four-year, $160 million contract after the season. He tore his ACL last October, after a 1-5 start, and will have to play well enough in 2024 to keep the Giants committed to him for 2025. In the wild-card game, the Giants diced up Donatell’s defense with lots of college passing concepts, while playing on Jones’ mobility outside the pocket. Flores will have a more diverse scheme for him, with pressure looks that could spell trouble for a quarterback who’s fumbled 46 times in his career. Former Gophers center John Michael Schmitz, the Giants’ second-round pick in 2023, will be in charge of helping Jones sort it all out.

Nabers is Gilmore’s first matchup: There was plenty of pre-draft chatter the Giants might take a quarterback with the sixth overall pick, but that turned out to be unfounded when New York passed on Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix to take LSU receiver Malik Nabers, who broke the all-time receiving yards record at a program that produced Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Odell Beckham Jr., among others. Nabers wins with his ability to change speeds and control his body in mid-air; the Vikings could ask Stephon Gilmore to be physical with him and disrupt his timing with Jones.

No players on either team carry an injury designation into the game.

Much has changed for both the Vikings and Giants since the last time Kevin O’Connell and Brian Daboll met in the playoffs two years ago. One thing that hasn’t changed much: how important the line of scrimmage could be to the final outcome. The Vikings will have to protect Darnold against the Giants’ pass rush and be able to move Lawrence if they want to run; the Giants will have to contend with new pressures Flores has dialed up for Jones. The defensive coordinator has a more experienced group of corners behind a more versatile front seven than he had last year. In a low-scoring opener, that’ll be enough to get the Vikings a win before three straight games against 2023 playoff teams. Vikings 17, Giants 13

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