Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Ideally, data is not.
What do the eight remaining playoff QBs tell us about the Vikings?
Depending on how you want to evaluate the last eight starting QBs standing, you can make an argument for just about any path.
In a perfect world, the information we gather would present a clear, unbiased narrative. But I probably don't need to remind you that the world is not perfect.
Data can be messy and malleable, able to bend to the whims of several different seemingly conflicting arguments depending on what point someone is trying to make.
One of my goals in 2024 is to break free of pre-conceived narratives, which tend to lead us (me) to seek out numbers that justify my beliefs.
As such, I've arrived at a messy conclusion when evaluating what the final eight quarterbacks left standing in the NFL playoffs tell us about how the Vikings should proceed this offseason — something I talked about on Tuesday's Daily Delivery podcast.
I started with a basic fact: Seven of the eight remaining quarterbacks were first-round draft picks. My temptation was to use this as evidence that the Vikings need to ditch Kirk Cousins and start over because that is my preference of all the Vikings' most realistic options.
The reality is that if we want to zero in on the sample size of the last eight quarterbacks standing, the Vikings (and those building arguments) can find examples of just about any possible path. To wit:
*Let Cousins walk — or convince him, however unlikely it is, to sign a one-year deal — and draft your quarterback of the future in the first round.
This model has worked for the remaining AFC teams. The Bills (Josh Allen), Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), Ravens (Lamar Jackson) and Texans (C.J. Stroud) all invested heavily in their quarterbacks, either in the draft, later financially or both, and have reaped the rewards.
So it's a no-brainer. That's what the Vikings should do. Well ... you have to get it right. For every Mahomes, there are two or three Mitch Trubisky types — high picks who are capable players but hardly turn into franchise guys. So maybe the Vikings should ...
*Just keep Cousins and build a better team around him.
That's essentially the Lions' model. Though Jared Goff, a former No. 1 overall pick, was acquired in a trade and not free agency (as Cousins was), the two are very similar in style and caliber of play. Detroit has ascended because of Goff's steadiness and a strong supporting cast.
*Let Cousins go and find a less expensive veteran stopgap.
It's working in Tampa Bay, where former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield has found solid footing with his fourth team. Could that work in Minnesota?
*Keep Cousins on a multi-year deal but still draft a QB of the future in the first round in 2024.
Hello, Green Bay. While this model has been taken to the extreme, with Jordan Love (No. 26 overall in the first round in 2020) sitting for three seasons and burning multiple years of his inexpensive first deal while Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers was with the Packers, it's not crazy to think the Vikings could try to thread the same needle with Cousins and a high pick.
*Keep Cousins, draft for other needs at No. 11 and hope to find a rising star late in the draft.
You don't get later in the draft than 49ers QB Brock Purdy, the final pick in 2022. This route rarely leads to QBs like Purdy, but look at Tom Brady (sixth round) and even Cousins (fourth round) for evidence that sometimes QBs fly under the radar. If you're not convinced Jaren Hall (fifth round in 2023) is that guy, take another flyer or two this year until you hit on someone.
So it's obvious. The data couldn't be more clear. The Vikings should just look at the teams left in the postseason and follow their lead to success.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.