RandBall: Five Monday thoughts after a near-perfect Sunday for Vikings

A nagging thought going into Sunday’s slate of NFL games was, “sure, the Vikings are playing great and are one of the league’s most surprising teams, but they seem doomed to a wild card berth, No. 5 seed and a brutal playoff path.”

Then Detroit was clobbered by Buffalo in the late Sunday afternoon game. Yes, it was technically a one-score game after a closing-seconds touchdown by the Lions but the Bills went into Detroit and controlled the game from start to finish.

Suddenly, Detroit has a second loss and the Vikings can match them in the division with a win over the Bears on Monday Night Football.

That and more was on the main menu of Monday’s Daily Delivery podcast featuring Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse. Here are five things on my mind as of now:

1. Can the Vikings avoid a Bear trap? The Vikings are on a six-game winning streak, and they are a touchdown favorite against a Bears team on a seven-game losing streak. Chicago was outgained 319-4 in the first half of their 38-13 loss to the 49ers last weekend. It seems entirely possible that the Bears, who were once one simple Hail Mary stop away from being 5-2 but are now 4-9, might have had the fight drained from them after several close losses. But it’s prime time, Caleb Williams was a monster the last time these teams played and the Vikings tend to make every game close. I think the Vikings will win, and I think Kevin O’Connell is generally good at making sure his team is focused, but this is still a classic trap game that won’t feel fully secure until it is over.

2. What is the path to a division title? It’s quite simple. If the Vikings win the rest of their games, including a Week 18 showdown at Detroit, they will win the NFC North. It should be noted, though, that the Vikings’ path the rest of the way is harder than that of Detroit. For starters, the Vikings have to win tonight just to pull even at 12-2. Next week they are at Seattle (more on them in a minute), then they play host to the Packers before the Lions finale. Detroit has two road games at Chicago and San Francisco before hosting the Vikings. If you don’t think the Bears will beat the Vikings, you probably shouldn’t think they will beat the Lions. And the 49ers game, which looked like a mighty clash at the start of the year, has lost its oomph with San Francisco sitting at a disappointing 6-8 and all but eliminated from the playoffs already. Still, the Vikings know that if they run the table, they will take the north. That wasn’t the case when they woke up Sunday.

3. What about home-field advantage and a first-round bye? If the Vikings run the table and so do the Eagles, with both division winners finishing 15-2, the Vikings will hold the tiebreaker in almost every scenario. The New York Times has a handy simulator that lets you play around with probabilities. If you check the win box for every remaining Vikings game, it spits out a 97% chance of being the No. 1 seed and getting both the only bye and home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

4. Why did I say “near-perfect” instead of perfect? Sunday’s results were great for Minnesota. But I hedged for two reasons: First, the Seahawks’ loss Sunday night that officially clinched a playoff spot for the Vikings came at the hands of the Packers. Many Vikings fans can’t reconcile good news if it comes with a chaser of Packers good news. Also, the underlying theme of Sunday was injuries to key opponents. Geno Smith was hurt during Sunday’s game against the Packers. If he can’t play next week against the Vikings, that’s a significant boost for their chances. Plus the Lions also suffered more injuries to a defense that is already struggling and banged up enough that coach Dan Campbell called for an on-side kick early in the fourth quarter with his team trailing by just 10. Those injuries undoubtedly help the Vikings, but nobody wants to see players get hurt.

5. Can Sam Darnold keep this up? Darnold, who some might say is one of the 10 biggest bargains in America, let alone the NFL, has been interception-free for four straight games while throwing 11 touchdown passes in that span. But Pro Football Focus has also tagged him for four “turnover-worthy plays” in that span. It’s a good reminder that Darnold is still a risk-reward QB and that it can tilt the other way when he’s slinging the ball all over the field.