Ben Goessling's Vikings-Lions preview and prediction: Who wins and why?

When: Noon Sunday, Ford Field

TV, radio: Ch. 9, 100.3-FM

Line: Lions by 2½

Underdogs can win division title: The Vikings have assured themselves of at least a tie for the NFC North title, and can win it outright with another win or tie, or another Lions loss or tie. A win on Sunday would not only wrap up the Vikings' first division title since 2017, but it would all but end the 5-7 Lions' playoff hopes. The fact the Lions are favored, against a 10-2 team that beat them earlier this season, wasn't lost on the Vikings this week.

Hockenson returns to Ford Field as a visitor: Tight end T.J. Hockenson, the eighth overall pick in the 2019 draft, came to the Vikings in a trade deadline deal. The Lions were 1-6 when they dealt Hockenson; they've lost just once since then. Hockenson, meanwhile, has become a trusted target for Kirk Cousins who's caught 30 of his 40 targets with the Vikings in just five games.

Vikings face Williams for the first time: The Lions traded with the Vikings in the first round of the draft in April, moving up 20 spots to take Alabama receiver Jameson Williams with the 12th overall pick. Williams, who's recovered from the torn ACL he sustained in last season's national championship game, made his debut for the Lions last week. He could record the first catch of his NFL career against the Vikings.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Lions CB Jeff Okudah: In the Week 3 meeting between the teams, the Lions put Okudah (the third overall pick in the 2020 draft) on Jefferson, with a safety helping over the top of Jefferson for much of the game. Jefferson caught just three passes for 14 yards, though the Lions were called for eight defensive holding, illegal contact or pass interference penalties. Since that game, Jefferson has been held under 90 receiving yards only twice. Okudah practiced for the first time this week on Friday after missing two days because of illness.

Vikings CB Chandon Sullivan vs. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown caught the game-winning touchdown pass in front of Cameron Dantzler to give the Lions their first victory of the season last year. He plays primarily in the slot, which means Sullivan will see plenty of him; St. Brown has 76 catches for 830 yards and six touchdowns this season.

128.39: Expected points the Lions defense has allowed this season. The total is the most in the NFL by nearly 14 points; the Bears are the second-worst at 114.95.

They can make the Lions pay for devoting extra attention to Jefferson, either by finding ways to get the receiver open or exploiting matchups for Hockenson. The Vikings, who got 124 combined yards out of Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison in the first matchup between the teams, could find success running the ball against the league's 28th-ranked run defense.

Quarterback Jared Goff continues the run of efficient play he's had during the team's surge, while Detroit can stop the run while keeping their safeties downfield to put a lid on the Vikings' group of receiving targets. Detroit might also need a cleaner performance from its secondary, given the likelihood referee Ron Torbert's crew will be watching for penalties.

This battle of two high-scoring offenses could be entertaining, as the Vikings and Lions try to connect on big plays against defenses that have given up plenty of them. The Lions have played well, and they're desperate to keep their season alive, but the Vikings, who've found the answers in close games all season, will put together the drive they need to clinch the NFC North. Vikings 30, Lions 27