Vikings must beware being heavily favored vs. Raiders

Recall what happened a year ago against the Bills.

September 22, 2019 at 5:53AM
Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden, right, celebrates with Simeon Rice (97) late in the fourth quarter against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, Sept. 18, 2005, in Tampa, Fla. The Buccaneers defeated the Bills, 19-3. (AP Photo/Scott Audette) ORG XMIT: TPS110
Jon Gruden is coaching in Minneapolis for the first time since 2005, when victory over the Vikings started Tampa Bay’s 11-5 season. (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Week 3 at home, a game there for the taking against an AFC opponent … what could go wrong? But assuming the Vikings learned a lesson against Buffalo last year, this should be a nice bounceback for Kirk Cousins against an Oakland team with a much more forgiving pass defense than the Bills had in '18.

THREE BIG STORY LINES

Carlson comes back to Minnesota

Almost a year to the day after the Vikings released him, kicker Daniel Carlson returns to U.S. Bank Stadium as a member of the Raiders. After his infamous three missed field goals at Lambeau Field led to his release from the Vikings, Carlson has missed only one kick for the Raiders.

Cousins looks to rebound

After an end zone interception spoiled his game in Green Bay, Kirk Cousins faces a team that has allowed 685 passing yards through two games.

Familiar face on Raiders' sideline

The last time Jon Gruden coached a regular-season game in Minnesota, his Bucs won the 2005 opener. Gruden's defensive coordinator is Paul Guenther, who helped coach Mike Zimmer develop his version of the double-A gap blitz while Guenther was Zimmer's linebackers coach in Cincinnati.

TWO KEY MATCHUPS

Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes vs. Raiders WR Tyrell Williams

After a rough day against Davante Adams in Green Bay last Sunday, Rhodes could be asked to shadow Williams, the 6-4 receiver who's been Derek Carr's top target through two games.

Vikings RT Brian O'Neill vs. Raiders DE Benson Mayowa

Mayowa is third in the NFL with 3½ sacks through two weeks, and though he only plays in passing situations, he's been able to make the most of his playing time through two weeks; he's never posted more than six sacks in a season but has beaten right tackles with his speed off the line through two games.

ONE STAT THAT MATTERS

.571 The Raiders' third-down conversion percentage. Oakland has picked up 16 of its 28 third-down attempts, the second-best percentage in the league as it faces a Vikings defense that's been the NFL's best against third downs each of the past two seasons.

THE VIKINGS WILL WIN IF…

They can run the ball effectively enough to build an early lead and make things easier for Cousins than they were last week at Lambeau Field. If they get off to a fast start, they should create a favorable environment for their QB to rebound.

THE RAIDERS WILL WIN IF…

They can put together strong early drives that take the crowd out of the game and make it easier for Carr to operate. The Raiders have a history of strong starts under Gruden, but they've often struggled to keep their production going later in games.

GOESSLING's Prediction Vikings 27-13
Win Probability 75%
This is a 2019 photo of Tyrell Williams of the Oakland Raiders NFL football team. This image reflects the Oakland Raiders active roster as of Monday, June 10, 2019 when this image was taken. (AP Photo) ORG XMIT: NFLHS19
Williams (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Ben Goessling

Sports reporter

Ben Goessling has covered the Vikings since 2012, first at the Pioneer Press and ESPN before becoming the Minnesota Star Tribune's lead Vikings reporter in 2017. He was named one of the top NFL beat writers by the Pro Football Writers of America in 2024, after honors in the AP Sports Editors and National Headliner Awards contests in 2023.

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