Would you believe the Vikings have the best offensive line in the NFL?

It seems outlandish, but Pro Football Focus has the Vikings graded as the No. 1 run blocking team and No. 3 pass blocking team in the league. It's one of several cases of advanced numbers liking the Vikings.

October 17, 2023 at 5:00PM
Minnesota Vikings guard Ed Ingram (67) blocks during the second half of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, Oct. 8, 2023, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
Minnesota Vikings guard Ed Ingram (67) and tackle Brian O’Neill (75). (Associated Press/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

This Vikings season is a frustrating enough paradox that sure, why wouldn't Pro Football Focus have Minnesota graded as the No. 1 run blocking team and No. 3 pass blocking team right now.

And yes, that's in the entire NFL, not the state of Minnesota or the NFC North.

What do we make of that? It doesn't seem right, or even close to right, based on the eye test or the inconsistent nature of all phases of the Vikings' offense through six games.

It feels like the Vikings are being marked on some bizarre scale, but then again they must be graded on all the same things that Philadelphia (No. 2 in run blocking) and San Francisco (No. 3) are, and those teams absolutely belong in that elite conversation.

And get this: ESPN's win-rate metrics for pass blocking and run blocking had the Vikings, before the Bears game, at No. 6 and No. 5, respectively, in the NFL.

Star Tribune Vikings writer Andrew Krammer nearly fell out of his seat when I showed him those numbers as we recorded Tuesday's Daily Delivery podcast, which should tell you what he thinks of their veracity.

But it does frame an interesting bigger-picture discussion: Are results and expectations creating an imperfect narrative about the Vikings? Are the Vikings actually better than their 2-4 record would suggest? And are they actually even better than they were a year ago when they only lost four games all season, as CBS analyst Tony Romo suggested as the Vikings were losing to the Chiefs?

Well, let's peek at it this way: If we look at DVOA — which stands for defense-adjusted value over average and tries to measure the impact and expected impact of plays instead of just results — the Vikings are better this year than a year ago.

This year, they are No. 16 in overall DVOA, suggesting they are an average NFL team.

Last year, they finished No. 28 — ahead of just four teams — in DVOA, suggesting their 13-4 record was a huge outlier. Nobody else in the bottom seven had more than five wins.

The Vikings thrived last year on situational excellence. This year they have been undone by ghastly and untimely turnovers, an offense that hasn't produced a first-quarter touchdown, a No. 27 ranking on third down conversions and an inconsistent defense. If their line play isn't to blame for those scoring woes, who or what is?

But the Vikings have also lost one-score games to the No. 5, No. 7, No. 14 and No. 15 teams in DVOA, and they will play the No. 1 team (San Francisco) this week. Of their next seven games after that, six are against teams who fall between No. 21 and No. 30 in DVOA, and the other (the Saints) is No. 13.

The New York Times says that adds up to a 29% chance to still make the playoffs. If the Vikings really are better than their record (or the eye test) suggests, they'll have plenty of chances to prove it.

Here are four more things to know today:

*Minnesota United's path to the postseason is much simpler than the Vikings' path: Win on Saturday at Sporting Kansas City and get even a little bit of help from any of three other teams, and they'll at least be a wild card. But winning in Kansas City is never easy, particularly with SKC fighting for a postseason spot of its own.

*Two games into the season, the Wild are already in a major bind with both the salary cap and their defensive depth. How they navigate injuries all year — particularly the current week-to-week ailments to forward Matt Boldy and defenseman Jared Spurgeon — will be something to watch.

*You'll be forgiven if you threw up in your mouth just a little when Jets coach Robert Saleh said of Aaron Rodgers, "His superpower is his presence."

about the writer

about the writer

Michael Rand

Columnist / Reporter

Michael Rand is the Minnesota Star Tribune's Digital Sports Senior Writer and host/creator of the Daily Delivery podcast. In 25 years covering Minnesota sports at the Minnesota Star Tribune, he has seen just about everything (except, of course, a Vikings Super Bowl).

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