Vikings vs. Packers: 3 story lines, 2 key matchups, 1 prediction

When: Noon Sunday, U.S. Bank Stadium
TV (radio): Ch. 9 (100.3-FM)
Line: Packers by 1

The Packers' third-ranked defense is coming off a shutout, but is missing enough defenders that the Vikings might have room to test Green Bay's secondary. That, plus the Packers' kicking misadventures with Mason Crosby and the effect of a raucous U.S. Bank Stadium crowd, might be enough to get the Vikings back to 5-5 and in the thick of the playoff race.

THREE STORY LINES

Border Battle has big implications for Vikings
A win in Los Angeles stopped the Vikings' two-game losing streak and gave them a chance to get back to .500 with a win this weekend. If they can get a second straight win as an underdog this weekend, they'll put themselves in strong position for the NFC's final wild-card spot. The Vikings are the only NFC North team to beat the Packers with Matt LaFleur as head coach, having won 28-22 at Lambeau Field in the teams' most recent meeting.

Offense tries to keep rolling vs. Packers D
The Vikings talked about how the 27-20 win against the Chargers could be a formula for their offense after weeks of questions about their identity; their first chance to test that theory comes against a Packers defense that posted the fourth shutout in the NFL this season against the Seahawks. Green Bay's defense has excelled under first-year coordinator Joe Barry, but it's played without Pro Bowlers Za'Darius Smith and Jaire Alexander for weeks, also lost linebacker Whitney Mercilus and might not have pass rusher Rashan Gary.

Last time for Rodgers in Minnesota?
Since Mike Zimmer became the Vikings' head coach in 2014, he's presided over enough effective defenses to turn a once-lopsided rivalry into something resembling a stalemate. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 7-5-1 against Zimmer-led Vikings teams; he was 7-1-1 in his previous nine games against the Vikings before Zimmer came to Minnesota. Given the possibility the Packers will trade Rodgers after this season, Sunday's game could be the last time Vikings fans watch him in green and gold at U.S. Bank Stadium.

TWO KEY MATCHUPS

Vikings CB Patrick Peterson vs. Packers WR Davante Adams
Peterson was activated Saturday after missing three games with a hamstring injury; his first assignment will be Adams, whose releases off the line and connection with Rodgers makes him one of the game's most dangerous receivers. Peterson loves to press receivers in an effort to throw off their timing, and he could try to slow Adams down by being physical with him at the line of scrimmage.

Vikings offensive line vs. Packers DT Kenny Clark
The Vikings have struggled in the past with Clark, the Pro Bowl tackle who's got four sacks in his past six games against Minnesota. Zimmer wouldn't reveal who'll start at center on Sunday with Garrett Bradbury back from the COVID-19 list, but some rough games against Clark could be in Zimmer's mind if he decides to keep Mason Cole at center. Either way, keeping Clark from pressuring Kirk Cousins up the middle will be a key for the Vikings' efforts to maintain a productive passing game against the NFL's third-ranked pass defense.

ONE STAT THAT MATTERS

73.1: Percentage of the time opponents score a red zone touchdown against the Packers' defense — the fourth-worst rate in the league this season. The Vikings' offense has the NFL's seventh-best red zone conversion rate (66.7%).

THE VIKINGS WILL WIN IF …

Cousins can hit some of the intermediate throws to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen he hit against the Chargers last week; the Vikings' offensive line can create space for Dalvin Cook on the ground or in the screen game; and the defense can keep the Packers — who lead the league in average drive time this season — from wearing the Vikings down with bruising running back A.J. Dillon and Rodgers' resourcefulness.

THE PACKERS WILL WIN IF …

Rodgers is sharper this week than he was in his return from COVID-19 against Seattle; Dillon can affect the Vikings' defense; and the Packers can manufacture enough of a pass rush to keep the Vikings behind the sticks, either by sacking Cousins, forcing incomplete passes or drawing holding penalties from a line that's committed too many of them this season.

PREDICTION

Vikings 20, Packers 17