Vikings vs. Bills: The 16.5-point spread might be tougher than the foe

September 23, 2018 at 2:54AM
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen looks around the field after an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, Sept. 16, 2018, in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Chargers defeated the Bills 31-20. (AP Photo/Rich Barnes) ORG XMIT: NYOTK
The Bills’ Josh Allen will be a rookie playing on the road today, and there’s evidence that Mike Zimmer’s defenses know what to do with those. (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Bet them to cover a 16½-point spread at your own risk. But with rookie Josh Allen making his second career start, at U.S. Bank Stadium, behind a line that's given up its fair share of pressure in the first two weeks of the season, the Vikings should cruise at home.

THREE BIG STORY LINES

Bailey debuts as kicker

After Daniel Carlson's three missed field goals at Lambeau Field cost him his job last week, the Vikings signed veteran Dan Bailey to a one-year, $1.75 million deal this week.

Frazier serves as 'collaborating' coordinator

Former Vikings coach Leslie Frazier, who was fired after the 2013 season, is the Bills' defensive coordinator, but after Buffalo's atrocious defensive start last week, coach Sean McDermott took defensive play-calling duties from Frazier. They will continue "collaborating" on defensive plays this week.

Tall task for Allen

The seventh overall pick in the 2018 draft, Allen completed 18 of 33 passes for 245 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions in his first NFL start last week. He took five sacks at home against the Chargers; he'll make his first start on the road.

TWO KEY MATCHUPS

Vikings LT Riley Reiff vs. Bills DE Jerry Hughes

When the Vikings last faced the Bills in 2014, Hughes was in the middle of a career year, and posted 1 ½ sacks while getting the better of Matt Kalil. He's 30 now, but he has a sack and seven pressures in two games. Reiff will see plenty of him on Sunday.

CB Xavier Rhodes vs. Bills WR Kelvin Benjamin

Rhodes had a big hand in controlling Benjamin during the Vikings' win over the defending NFC champion Panthers in 2016, and he could wind up shadowing the 6-foot-5 receiver on Sunday, as the Vikings try to throw off Allen's rhythm on the road.

ONE STAT THAT MATTERS

68.9 The combined passer rating of rookie quarterbacks starting against the Vikings defense in the Mike Zimmer era. Dak Prescott, Mitch Trubisky, DeShone Kizer and Carson Wentz combined to go 2-3 against the Vikings as rookies.

THE VIKINGS WILL WIN IF…

They avoid unforced errors against an aggressive Bills defensive front, take advantage of big plays downfield and put consistent pressure on Allen.

THE bills WILL WIN IF…

Allen keeps the Vikings off guard with his mobility, the Bills can force the Vikings into several turnovers and LeSean McCoy — playing with injured ribs — can put together a big day against the Vikings defense.

GOESSLING's Prediction Vikings, 24-10
Win Probability 85 percent
This is a 2018 photo of Jerry Hughes of the Buffalo Bills NFL football team. This image reflects the Buffalo Bills active roster as of Wednesday, May 9, 2018 when this image was taken. (AP Photo) ORG XMIT: NFLHS18
Hughes (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

about the writer

Ben Goessling

Sports reporter

Ben Goessling has covered the Vikings since 2012, first at the Pioneer Press and ESPN before becoming the Star Tribune's lead Vikings reporter in 2017. He was named one of the top NFL beat writers by the Pro Football Writers of America in 2024, after honors in the AP Sports Editors and National Headliner Awards contests in 2023.

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